Powellese Listening Test
The market was freefalling.
.
.
.
Investors were waiting for the bounce.
It had looked like the soft CPI print would deliver one.
[This isn’t a festival, it’s a funeral.jpg]
Then Powell spoke, and the market collapsed as if the whole thing had been a lie.
He unleashed a torrent of hawkish remarks.
The index that had climbed as high as 3 percent from the lows now flipped red with spectacular force, as if the rally had never happened.
[Account after day-trading.jpg]
Just let me escape once and I swear I’ll never FOMO-trade again
Still, the investors kept their cool.
They had watched the same movie countless times before.
A miraculous rebound. The moment prices dipped even a little, bargain hunters always piled in.
『 NASDAQ Composite 』
7105.98 ▼275.64 (−5.65%)
[Chart: −13% from the high.jpg]
This time, that bid never came.
One day passed, then two, then a full week, and the realization finally sank in.
This was nothing like the last few years.
Investors still drunk on the fantasy of a perpetual bull market were about to get a rude awakening.
Long-bro: Chairman, please cut rates
Long-bro: Chairman, just 0.5 bp, please, Chairman
Powell: No. Not cutting. No intention of cutting. Get out.
It became the moment they woke from the dream.
They finally understood this was no ordinary correction.
The mood had shifted.
Even the news made it obvious.
Day after day, headlines alone were enough to make your blood run cold.
“I know, right? Even the KOSPI’s looking sickly from the Nasdaq spillover.”
− They’re saying rates keep going up whoa
− So that’s why the KOSPI’s been falling lately……
− Unnie, isn’t your account in danger too?
Sora already knew.
In her position, there was no way she could not know.
Purchase Amount │ 50,706,974 won
Unrealized P/L │ −8,964,993 won
Return │ −17.68%
The stocks she had bought were falling with the steady, merciless patience of a stress test.
Hoo… hoohoo. Fuck.
The loss had already ballooned close to ten million won.
And yet she could still smile.
“I’m not doing that!”
− Just shake the ass and the money multiplies
− Make some cash and average down!
− Just shake the damn ass already lmao
Because she had recently started a new investment.
Her account was no longer just one.
SQQQ │ 2,000 shares │ ＋20.73%
Unrealized P/L: ＋6,301.92 USD
A U.S. account, fully converted into dollars.
She had bought two thousand shares of the ETF SQQQ.
“This ETF tracks the Nasdaq three times in reverse. The more it falls, the more money you make.”
− Whoa, triple leverage holy crap
− Absolute queen
− Absolute bitch queen
She had bought near the top, right when prices were still climbing after the CPI print. That was why she was already up nearly 20 percent.
Factor in the currency gain and the expected return climbed even higher.
She had hedged a huge chunk of the losses sitting in her Korean account.
Not like I earned this with my own skill, though.
There was a part of her that honestly felt guilty.
She had peeked over her senior’s shoulder while he analyzed the Nasdaq.
As a club member she had even helped with the work.
And on the side, she had placed her own bet on the decline.
“Yeah, no.”
Wanting to brag was pure investor psychology.
She was also sick of hearing about how much money she had lost.
They keep telling me to dance.
She had barely taken any real damage.
She figured if she just verified the account, the demands would stop.
− Insane bitch
− Amazing, Sora-nim
− And it’s even SQQQ lmaoooooooo
− Holy shit
− Making money in this crash whoa
− Even the analysts said this time it was a real bounce……
− Unnie I’m actually dying (bagholding 8k Nasdaq)
That was the state of the world outside.
Investors were one breath away from keeling over.
Because beneath the floor there had been a basement.
Uh……
To foresee that and short it?
Even if an ordinary person knew, they would never actually do it.
“Valuations were still overstretched, and Powell was never going to turn dove…… an oppa I know told me that.”
− Boyfriend issue
− Ah, that guy from last time lmao
− What does he even do to call that?
She had analyzed it rationally.
Not some vague hunch—she had gone through every single one of Powell’s speeches.
That’s how thorough he was.
Even someone as conservative about shorting as she was had decided to join in this time.
“He did. I thought it over carefully myself, but Powell’s speech was so hawkish that I ended up leaning short.”
There had been an opposing view as well.
The CEO of an asset management firm who often dropped by her stream.
Pungtigi-nim’s take was impressive too.
Depending on how the upcoming data printed, the market’s direction could still flip.
Powell would come back as a dove.
That had been an interesting angle as well.
− Oppa I know >> securities firm CEO
− Oppa was right
− Pungtigi-nim wrong lmaoooooooo
− He acted like he knew everything……
− Even a securities firm CEO is nothing special, huh?
− Sora-nim not believing Pungtigi-nim is also crazy
− Oppa I’m dying
The market had moved according to a bigger picture.
Her senior’s words had simply been more persuasive.
Two viewpoints.
After comparing them, she had bought.
Even if she had received help, the final judgment had been hers alone.
Investing is your own responsibility.
There was no one else to blame.
Whether she was right or wrong, it was the result of her own action.
“Yeah. He hasn’t even been showing up to the stream lately.”
− No money left to tip now lmao
− Hope he didn’t get wrecked too bad
− Pungtigi got completely roasted
It was the same principle.
She had no right to dictate how someone else invested.
Doesn’t seem like someone I know that well anyway.
And honestly, she didn’t particularly care.
An asset management firm.
One of the financial investment companies that run funds.
They roll other people’s money for them.
Which means they have to generate returns.
“The market is in complete panic right now……”
“Bottom line?”
“Even the strategy team isn’t picking up any positive signals.”
The ballpoint pen in his hand.
He had developed a habit of tapping it against the desk.
Hard enough to leave marks on the smooth wood.
No, it really should be bouncing by now.
Jang Ho-yeong, CEO of Pungtigi Asset Management, was drowning in anxiety.
The market refused to move the way he had predicted.
“The call options we bought last month are being valued as having almost zero chance of settling in-the-money before expiration.”
“Just say it.”
“They’ve become toilet paper.”
“Huuu……”
He could no longer hide his emotions even in front of his subordinates.
They were the ones reading his mood now.
Dropping this far doesn’t make any sense. None.
Even so, Ho-yeong refused to give up.
He was still hunting for the market rebound.
The losses were enormous, no question.
But they were not beyond recovery.
“What time is Powell’s speech today?”
“One o’clock. After the November FOMC ends, Chairman Powell is scheduled to speak. If he gives us something dovish, the trend might reverse.”
That was the beauty of the stock market.
No—of the derivatives market.
Ho-yeong was swinging for a home run.
This is exactly the moment.
The market was paralyzed by pure terror.
No one wanted to buy stocks.
Real fear.
Experience told him that buying into moments like this was how you made the real money later.
“Buy more call options.”
“Yes, I’ll pass it to the trading desk.”
“One-year maturity, 10k strike.”
“Ten thousand Nasdaq?!”
It had crashed spectacularly.
The bounce would be just as spectacular.
Especially if Powell even hinted at rate cuts.
No reason Nasdaq can’t go to 10k.
The all-time high had been 8,000.
He had set the strike more than 20 percent above that, at 10,000.
If it got there, the capital would balloon hundreds of times over.
Actually, it didn’t even need to get all the way there.
“Th-that’s way too high-risk, even for us……”
“It’s fine. If the market just turns modestly bullish, I’ll close enough to cover the losses.”
“Ah, understood.”
When everyone starts dreaming of a rally?
Even absurd options like these start rising in value.
You buy them when they’re toilet paper, just like now.
This was investing.
This was how he had made his money.
The foresight to turn crisis into opportunity.
It would work again this time.
After such an excessive crash, even Powell had to shift to a more accommodative stance.
That was the atmosphere building.
Powell’s expression as he stepped up to the podium looked bright.
He looked like a man about to say something nice.
Yes, that’s right!
The market seemed to sense it too—prices started climbing.
The force that had been compressed for so long was ready to spring back hard.
All he needed was a few positive words.
Just that, and everything could return to normal.
His daily life included.
Gulp.
The reason the last stretch had felt like death wasn’t only because of the money he had lost.
Sora must be worried sick too.
The market had stopped behaving rationally.
The aftershock of Powell spouting lunatic remarks.
An absurd freefall.
It had even wrecked his own reputation.
But in the end, things would go the way he had said.
He had believed this speech would be the turning point.
Powell’s speech was starting to go sideways.
The more he listened, the less he could believe it.
Hey, can’t you see the market already crashed!?
A rag that had nothing left to wring out.
And still the man was determined to squeeze out the very last drop.
That couldn’t be right.
His face was clearly bright.
Ho-yeong told himself he must have misheard.
Powell smiled, bright and sunny.