Powell-ese Listening Test

Jang Ho-yeong, CEO of Peongtigi Asset Management.

He held absolute conviction in his trades.

"Is it going up?"

"Yes, sir. According to the equity strategy team, the market appears to have returned to an upward trend."

He had every reason for confidence. For the past five years, he had been on an unbroken winning streak — on the Nasdaq, no less, where investors from every corner of the globe came to prove themselves.

Hmm. Unfolding just as expected.

His self-assurance was swelling right up to his throat. For an asset management firm, nothing proved skill more definitively than returns.

"We're seeing a market rally centered on FAANG."

"The five mega-caps, you mean."

"Expectations for the upcoming CPI are peaking as well! Especially with energy prices recently starting to roll over."

In other words, he was delivering results. People who had put money into his fund had made money. And rumors begot more rumors — which was exactly why countless VIPs kept showing up with cash in hand.

Why else would Korea's high-and-mighty entrust their money to me?

The market outlook Ho-yeong was staring at said one thing: the bear market was over. This wasn't baseless hopium. The next data release would be the inflection point for equities.

The Consumer Price Index. CPI was the single most critical data point determining the direction of the Fed's monetary policy.

"Housing costs ought to be rolling over by now, right?"

"Yes, sir. The Zillow Home Value Index is already showing signs of a shift."

If inflation came in low? There would be no need to hike rates further. That was exactly what Ho-yeong was counting on.

Energy, housing costs — both of them are due to break lower.

Every published indicator rested on underlying source data. CPI was the sum of energy, food, shelter costs, and more. Dig those up in advance, piece together the latest figures one by one, and you could roughly forecast how CPI would print.

"If it comes in below estimates—"

"Buying pressure will flood in."

"Good, good. That's exactly what we're betting on."

The conclusion: he was certain it would break lower. That was why, as CEO of Peongtigi Asset Management, he had bet on a rally.

And the stock prices happen to be dirt cheap right now.

The market had been drowning in fear. Panic selling had knocked prices down nearly ten percent from the highs. A buying opportunity. Others shared the exact same thought — starting yesterday, prices had been quietly lifting their tails, and the session had closed green.

He had successfully bought the bottom. Only a partial position so far — but if CPI printed as expected…

Full bet. Everything on the table…!

Turn crisis into opportunity. Generate the highest returns possible. Next year, the goal wasn't merely the top tier — it was first place. Korea's number-one fund. An asset manager running hundreds of billions. That future was close enough to reach out and grab.

He swallowed hard. His interlaced fingers itched between every joint. If he could just pull this off, he could have everything.

"Sir?"

"Ahem! Where was I?"

"You were saying you'd place the bet."

"Right, that! If CPI comes in soft, Powell will say something market-friendly too. Tell the portfolio team to start accumulating early."

"Understood!"

All of it on the strength of a single pair of eyes reading the market. In the five years since breaking free from a brokerage house, he had clawed his way up by sheer grit. A small asset manager had no choice but to take high-risk trades — that was the only way clients would hand over their money.

If I just nail this one trade…

He could finally secure his position. No more carrying unnecessary risk — just steadily compound the assets. He wanted to get married, too. There was a girl he'd been keeping an eye on. Still raw, but she showed real promise.

A woman isn't just a pretty face.

He'd met plenty of those when he was younger. Even now, if he registered with a matchmaking service, the line of beautiful, well-figured candidates would form itself. What he needed was someone he could actually talk to — and who still possessed flawless looks. Only then would she be worthy of being his wife.

A woman like that. He'd wondered if one even existed in the real world. And even if she did, she probably wouldn't measure up to his standards.

The more I look at her, the more impressive she is.

He gazed at a photo of Sora saved in a secret folder and smiled with satisfaction. If anything, he was the one who felt inadequate — because of the age gap. More than a full generation between them was a barrier, no matter how you sliced it. But it was a problem he could overcome. She had a fierce hunger for knowledge. She even dreamed of becoming a trader. He could make that happen for her. Support her. Make it real.

Who else but me could do that for her?

Staring at the photo on his monitor, Ho-yeong let his imagination unfurl.

Data. Treated as the critical material that determined the future direction of the stock market.

"Whoa… it's just climbing."

"This printed well, right?"

"A massive green candle just got jammed in!!"

The club members had every reason to be restless. Moments ago, the Consumer Price Index had dropped.

It had come in below estimates. Inflation had not run hotter than the market expected.

"That's bullish, right?"

"That's one way to look at it."

"Huh?"

"There are plenty of ways to interpret a market."

Not just one or two. The macro analysis team. The equity strategy team. The equity derivatives team.

Looking at the market from multiple angles — that's the American way.

Among them, there were even funds that ignored news and data entirely, following only the trend.

"CTAs are the classic non-economic system funds."

"Oh…"

"So they don't follow the economic system at all?"

"There are trading methods like that too, huh."

That was why markets didn't crash instantly even when major bad news hit. Residual force still pushing prices higher remained intact — until some catastrophic event snapped the trend entirely.

The data that had just printed was enough to rekindle a dying ember. The market still hadn't woken from its fantasy.

But it wouldn't be long. As one o'clock in the morning arrived, the heart-pounding Powell-ese listening test began.

Clack! Tap! Clack-clack-clack!

At the same moment, the club members sprang into frantic motion. They had been preparing for this exact instant.

Building a trading program wasn't easy…

Student-level technical skill. Time that had been woefully insufficient. But it wasn't impossible — not if you aimed at a single target. A voice-recognition program built exclusively for Powell.

Powell was a former lawyer. His pronunciation was textbook-perfect, and he never wasted a single word — a meticulousness that made analysis considerably easier. Take the speech currently underway.

The opening sentence registered as bullish. But whether Korean or English, you had to listen all the way to the end.

Sure enough, the hawkish remarks came pouring out. Anticipating exactly that, they had bought put options.

"Ooooh!"

"It's dropping."

"It's getting absolutely wrecked."

"How did you call that?"

"There was a tell."

English wasn't as fluid as Korean — and it carried emotion. When someone was about to say the opposite of their opening line, they launched it with a But in a more agitated tone than usual. Powell was human too. He did the same thing.

Double kill! Triple kill!

The remarks that followed were hawkish as well. No — there wasn't a single genuine bullish note to be found. And they were analyzing it all in real time. Not merely reacting to a handful of keywords.

"The words you told us to watch for didn't come up, hyung."

"Odds we misheard?"

"Zero. We're listening carefully too…"

The words that went into a speech. Among them, the critical ones were automatically classified by the program. Manual review was running in parallel as well — it was still incomplete, so club members with strong English skills were backing it up. Looking at the results:

Tone-down language. Words ‍‍‌‌⁠​​⁠‌​​‍​​‍​‌​⁠‍‌‍⁠⁠‌⁠‌‍‌‍‌‌‌‍⁠​‌​‌​‌‍‌‌‌⁠‍​​‌‍⁠‌‌⁠⁠that, even with similar ‍‍‌‌⁠​​⁠‌​​‍​​‍​‌​⁠‍‌‍⁠⁠‌⁠‌‍‌‍‌‌‌‍⁠​‌​‌​‌‍‌‌‌⁠‍​​‌‍⁠‌‌⁠⁠meanings, would be interpreted as softer in economic terms. None of it was present.

"Whoa…"

"Laid out like this, you can see it at a glance."

"So even with a soft CPI print, the Fed hasn't shifted at all?"

"Exactly."

Data was important, of course. But you couldn't misunderstand why you were looking at it in the first place.

In the end, the Fed is the one making the call.

If it didn't please the Fed? Even the best data in the world meant nothing.

The reason the market was falling right now: one by one, the major institutions were catching on. And what that implied was enormous. It meant the trend going forward had changed.

"Futures shorts and put option buys — full position, eight-to-two."

"All of it?"

"We've still got over ten billion won left."

"You pick your battles when moments like this show up."

The CTAs — the non-economic system funds — would join in too. The force that had been propping up the rally would switch tracks and ride the decline instead. The Nasdaq was a place that made you enormous money in a bull market — and inflicted astronomical damage in a bear.

This isn't a floor where random amateurs get to strut around pretending they can analyze anything.

Time to take a shower in the shoeshine boys' money.