Chapter 17
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Translator: penny
Chapter: 017
Chapter Title: Coup Conditions 8: Reputation is Justification
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CIA headquarters, deep within the building.
Even at this late hour, everyone summoned urgently by CIA Director Bradley had gathered.
Each one was among the top experts on Middle East strategy in the United States.
Director Bradley spoke with a disinterested expression.
"As you all know, the president's speech has essentially decided the regime change. But no matter who the next president is, we still have our job to do. First things first—we need to get our detained nationals back. Any bright ideas?"
The group nodded silently in agreement,
and all eyes naturally turned to the elderly man seated in the corner—the oldest among them and the architect of America's secret diplomacy and covert operations abroad: Henry Kissinger.
Director Bradley naturally addressed him.
"Looks like we're all thinking the same thing. In this field, we have no choice but to hear from Professor Kissinger first."
Kissinger cleared his throat and spoke, having gauged the room's mood.
"First, let's review the current situation. This incident has dragged America's face through the mud. Our allies in the Middle East must be deeply disappointed. On the flip side, Khomeini's side, which was gripped by internal unrest, now has the justification and opportunity to suppress public backlash against Islamic fundamentalism and stabilize the revolutionary regime."
"Exactly."
"This event makes negotiating for the hostages even harder. From their perspective, there's no regret or urgency. We're in the opposite position—not just this regime, but the next one too will feel the pressure of a drawn-out hostage negotiation. We'll end up being dragged along indefinitely."
Director Bradley's expression darkened.
That was his greatest concern.
Not the hostages' lives.
It was America being humiliated in hostage talks with Iran, losing its dominance in the Middle East.
The Middle East accounted for more than half of the world's oil supply—a core U.S. interest.
Losing control there could upend America's entire global strategy.
Kissinger continued.
"Before we talk negotiations or rescues, we need to change the board."
"Change the board?"
"That's right. You can't gain the upper hand in negotiations unless you make the other side desperate first."
One of the other attendees listening in asked,
"How do we make Khomeini desperate? His popularity has surged from this incident, and all the internal backlash in Iran is now aimed at us."
Kissinger replied nonchalantly.
"If the inside is tough, shake things up from the outside."
The attendees began murmuring.
- No way. You mean start a war?
- After getting burned in Vietnam, do it again?
- What about a small-scale military op? Take out Khomeini and the top brass.
- Didn't we just see how hard military ops in foreign countries are? If it happens again, we'll be looking at all-out war.
- War seems impossible...
Kissinger listened to the murmurs indifferently before responding.
"We don't have to step up ourselves."
Director Bradley asked,
"If we don't, you're talking proxy war? In the Middle East? Against Iran?"
Everyone in the room knew Iran's military strength well.
Over the past two decades, as America's closest ally and a champion of Westernization, Iran boasted unmatched military power in the region.
Thanks to the Shah's shopping-spree purchases of cutting-edge weapons, Iran's air force—unique outside the U.S. in possessing F-14s—was rated third only behind America and the Soviet Union.
Its ground forces, armed with U.S. M60s and British Chieftains, overwhelmed other nations' tanks.
In contrast,
the military forces of other Arab monarchies lagged far behind in manpower, equipment, and training.
Kissinger answered Bradley's skeptical question.
"Objectively, maybe. But given Iran's current state, it's not impossible. After the revolution, the first thing Khomeini executed was the military brass. More than half of the key commanders were executed or purged and imprisoned. The military is still under tight control, with most command authority shifted to the Revolutionary Guard. They're effective at protecting Khomeini and the Islamic theocracy, but they'll show their limits in a full-scale war with heavy equipment."
Bradley nodded in agreement upon hearing this.
But that alone wasn't enough.
"Even so, who attacks Iran?"
"While Iran's plunged into chaos internally, right next door, Iraq's President Saddam has a firm grip on power."
"President Saddam Hussein?"
"Yes."
One attendee objected.
- Isn't that guy a dictator?
Hussein had risen to vice president in the Ba'ath Party coup of 1968, steadily consolidating power until formally becoming president in 1979.
He was solidifying a hereditary dictatorship.
Kissinger brushed it off.
"Whether he's a dictator or not doesn't matter. In fact, it's perfect. Having seized internal control, he's now turning his eyes outward. With Egypt sidelined after the Yom Kippur War, Hussein's openly showing his ambition to become the Middle East's hegemon."
Bradley asked,
"Even so, Hussein knows Iran's strength better than anyone. Would he really start a war?"
Iran's national power visibly outmatched Iraq's by nearly threefold.
"If he thinks he's not alone, absolutely."
"Not alone?"
"Khomeini's riding high from this incident and openly signaling his intent to export Islamic revolution abroad. And it's not impossible. Seventy percent of Iraqis next door are Shia Muslims. Sixty percent of Kuwaitis below them, eighty percent of Bahrainis. Plenty of Arab monarchies are uneasy after this revolution. From their view, they want someone to snuff out Iran's revolution for them."
Bradley pictured the Middle East map.
Iraq right next to Iran, then Kuwait, Bahrain, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and even farther Jordan.
Most Arabian Peninsula states clung to monarchies.
And all harbored quiet anxiety over Iran's revolution.
That was Kissinger's point.
"Put Iraq out front, rally the Arab states behind it, pool their strength. Toppling chaotic Iran wouldn't be impossible."
Bradley had no more counterarguments.
"Sounds plausible."
"And even if Iraq loses, once war breaks out, Khomeini won't have the luxury of time anymore. We'd regain the upper hand in hostage talks naturally. Might even hand the new president the perfect inauguration gift."
The ultimate gift:
repatriation of the detained embassy staff.
Bradley envisioned the aftermath.
If it succeeded,
his and the CIA's position would solidify even further.
Having sorted his thoughts, the director turned to Casey Johnson, head of the Middle East operations team, beside him.
"You have lines in the Middle East?"
"Yes. I can connect right away."
"Link up with all the monarchies there. Sketch out how we can pour support into Iraq."
"Yes, sir. I'll draw up a plan and report back."
"Good."
The director's eyes returned to Kissinger.
"Thanks for the insight."
"Just rambling thoughts off the top of my head."
"It helped a lot. We'd lost sight of what we need to do."
He addressed the room.
"For our security and national interests, identify risks early and eliminate them discreetly. Methods may differ, but that's our sole purpose."
Kissinger nodded approvingly.
"Exactly. The only true north is 'national interest.'"
The Iranian Royal Palace.
Spring of 1980 had passed, heading into summer.
Sitting in the palace study, I reviewed the reports from my intelligence lines.
Hassan, reading the reports beside me, spoke in a worried tone.
"Khomeini's side is up to something dangerous."
The reports detailed
how, buoyed by the failed U.S. hostage rescue, Khomeini's faction planned to spread revolutionary zeal beyond Iran's borders.
The neighboring countries were already on edge watching the Shah's ouster.
Fomenting revolution internally there
could spark war.
"Religious fanatics never have a plan."
"Even so, the monarchies won't sit idle. We could end up isolated—or worse, they might unite and attack..."
"Probably."
"Pardon? Your Highness, do you think war will break out?"
"Likely."
Hassan's face hardened.
The prince's predictions had never been wrong.
Hassan asked,
"Is there no way to avoid it?"
"There is."
"What is it?"
"We stage the coup and kneel before America. That what you want?"
Hassan's expression darkened.
"No other way to dodge war."
"So what will you do?"
"Can't avoid it, but we can minimize the damage."
The Iran-Iraq War.
A grueling eight-year total war, the last of the 20th century between nations.
But if the coup succeeded as planned,
we could drastically shorten it and cut the losses.
Hassan nodded at the prince's words.
"No choice, then."
"But ending it like that would be a waste."
"Pardon? What do you mean..."
"We use it."
"Use it?"
"Yeah. There's an old saying: heroes are born in war."
"A hero? Ah!"
"Right. If the coup leader's a war hero, nothing easier for rallying grassroots support. Right?"