In the Mountain the Tiger Left, the Fox is King
1786 October, St. Petersburg, Winter Palace.
"France has dispatched a massive fleet carrying bureaucrats and supplies to America. Hundreds of ships, including those chartered from Spain and Portugal in exchange for forgiving some of their trade debts. France has turned its attention to the colonies."
As Louis XVI had predicted, Russia wasted no time mobilizing its forces the moment France shifted its focus to America.
"General Suvorov. How long to seize Constantinople?"
Russia immediately accelerated its southward push.
"Two years, at least."
"That long?"
Seizing the opportunity while France lost interest in Europe, Russia set its sights on Constantinople—the gateway to the Black Sea and Russia's path to maritime expansion.
"We can launch the attack immediately starting from East Thrace, but the forests and rivers will limit our deployable artillery."
"What about landing on the opposite side for a pincer attack, or supporting with gunfire from the Black Sea fleet?"
"Our navy is honestly on par with England's from a century ago. Prince Potemkin is building fortresses and ships of the line in Sevastopol, but we'll need three years before those battleships are ready."
Eight years earlier, the financial scam that had ravaged Europe left most European powers without the capacity for war. Russia, however, had been largely unaffected by it. Or more precisely, its economy was so shattered already that a few more scratches made no difference.
As always, Russia overcame its fiscal woes with the blood and sweat of its serfs, and its raw materials.
"Well, take it slow. Europe's sick man. Ah, but it's not even part of Europe anymore."
But this time, it wasn't just about overcoming—it was about capitalizing.
"If we wait, we could coordinate a land-sea assault with Potemkin's battleships. Ukraine had a bumper crop this year, so the longer we hold out, the better our position."
Thanks to Ukrainian grain.
"Ahaha. Right, right. Whew... Who knew famine would strike Central-Western Europe right when we annexed Ukraine. If only it lasted five more years, we'd have Constantinople by then."
Through the partition of Poland, Russia had absorbed all of Ukraine, selling vast quantities of black soil wheat to Prussia. Prussia exploited Polish peasants and laborers for grain and money, then used that money to buy Ukrainian grain and sell it to the German Customs Union. The structure was that Prussia fed on grain squeezed from Poles, while the German Customs Union states consumed Ukrainian grain bought with money extorted from Poles.
"Army intelligence reports the famine is gradually shifting westward. Next year or the year after, it looks like it'll hit France's breadbasket regions."
"Perfect. Absolutely perfect. When that happens, we'll set the price. Ahh, that makes Constantinople even more tempting. When France is gripped by famine and ours is the only grain left, think of the profits!"
"We'll do our best."
Ironically, these famines were actually preventing war.
"No need to push too hard. Even without the Black Sea, we have the Baltic. Who's going to stop us from selling food? While we're at it, how about we sign that same treaty Britain made with France? We need to start building factories ourselves."
"I'll discuss it."
The famine-stricken European states were Russia's potential customers—no need to attack them.
"Lucky that fat slob is on the throne instead of that old viper Friedrich. We might even devour Poland with our flour."
Perhaps because its economy was perpetually in ruins, Russia failed to grasp the current economic boom. Even with Frederick II—the battle-hardened veteran—dead, and unstable Poland ripe for exploitation due to overexploitation, Russia restrained its territorial ambitions.
"Now I see why that map-rag Louis is hyping fertilizers so much. People can live without steel, but not without bread. Stockpile wheat for when Western Europe's breadbasket freezes over. When famine truly hits France, we need to rake in at least three billion francs."
"Understood."
"We can recover it all anyway, so buy up French sulfuric acid-alkali fertilizers too. Target: three million tons."
Tasting real money for once, Russia instinctively began weaponizing food.
* Netherlands, Amsterdam.
With Louis XVI sending a massive fleet to Central America, the Netherlands' patriots grew anxious.
"We need to bind France forcibly before it completely withdraws from the Netherlands."
They wanted active French intervention to deter invasion by the German Customs Union. A small nation like the Netherlands could be invaded at any moment, but if French interests were entangled, even a threat like Hanover would have to think twice. In short, they were traitors desperate to hand France the Netherlands' leash.
"Most of France's investments are in Louis XVI's personal name. Hardly any from French private citizens."
"No surprise. After the last economic panic, all their stocks are on life support."
Fortuitously for the Netherlands, the recent promissory note scam had burned every leash France might have grabbed.
"If domestic stocks won't work, how about making them buy government bonds?"
"Bonds? But we have no reason to issue them in the first place."
"That's what we need to figure out now."
But the Netherlands' patriots—the anti-Orange faction—were desperate to tie France to Dutch interests as quickly as possible. Lacking a leash to give France, they set about creating one.
"For now, let's brainstorm ways to shove provincial government bonds into French hands."
"The Amsterdam Bank won't buy bonds. It wasn't created to buy them, so even under pressure, they won't. We'll have to push them through private channels one by one..."
They planned to force bonds on France without need or designated use.
"Holland Province bonds have the best name recognition, so let's have them handle the issuance."
"Agreed."
It was a discussion to issue bonds for the sake of issuing bonds.
"To get French tycoons to buy our bonds, the interest rate needs to be attractive. How about 4%, the highest in the Netherlands?"
"Good. 4% perpetual bonds will strain the budget, but not bad."
4% perpetual bonds. With 67% of Dutch tax revenue already going to perpetual bond interest, issuing more at this rate was abnormal.
"We can't issue too many, so just thirty million francs. That'll push interest payments right to 70%."
Yet they did it for real. Fiscal health, national credit, rigid tax structures—all secondary to having bonds to shove at France immediately.
"Let me speak frankly. Why did we have a revolution? What's the difference between this and what William V and the Orangists did?"
Some patriots felt this bond issuance was off. They'd purged William V and the Orangists precisely because excessive perpetual bond interest had rigidified tax usage—and now they were doing the same.
"Ahem. We'll think about that later. You know this is our only option right now. Anyway, if we don't specify uses for the bonds, we can just dump them into free school lunches."
The patriots rationalized their self-contradiction as an unavoidable choice, conscience pricked but ignored. Boosting military spending wouldn't stop the German Customs Union anyway, so becoming France's wallet to deter invasion was their "rational" judgment. Reviving the economy and securing defense—a mild interest burden increase, a safe bet.
The problem was, this "safe" was safe for the rulers, not the nation.
"Nineteen million florins—no, francs now. Annual interest alone is thirty-eight million francs. And you're saying we'll bump it to forty million? That leaves just sixteen million in discretionary national budget—what can we do with that? The fleet France just sent to America cost twenty million francs! The Dutch East India Company needs expansion to escape its deficit swamp, but with money this tight, what can we accomplish? We might need to reach the eastern edge of Asia, Luzon, for the Company to revive."
Piling debt to survive immediate crises had completely stripped the Netherlands of growth engines. The 1780 Anglo-Dutch War had ended in French-aided victory, but really, it had driven them to the brink with merchant ship losses and trade halts from blockades. Recovery required steady annual infusions of ten million francs or more—but that took time, while bonds delivered instant results.
"East India Company dividends look like they'll stop next year."
"Yeah, figured as much."
This was why the Dutch East India Company collapsed. Amid government neglect, corruption, complacency, and debts exceeding company value, its lifespan as a corporation ended.
"We saw it coming six years ago. We've just been plugging holes with perpetual bonds for six years. And we'll keep doing it."
Thus lamenting, the Dutch patriots issued thirty million francs in bonds anyway.
Better than doing nothing.