The Importance of Information Warfare
In Jian'an Year 6, the calendar and era name had shifted slightly ahead because of my interference. That was the year Cao Cao led an army of one hundred thousand to crush the rebels in Xuzhou.
Interestingly, Xun Yu—who had rarely taken the field—accompanied the campaign this time, while the other strategists remained behind to guard the capital.
“Munyak, it really has been a long time since I brought you to war with me. Doesn’t it feel good to breathe the outside air like this?”
“It has indeed been quite a while since I last marched as a military advisor.”
The reason Xun Yu could venture out so freely was the presence of Grand Tutor Cao Song, who had received the staff of authority after the great purge, and the newly entered Noble Consort Cao—Lady Cao Jie—who had joined the palace after Lady Dong’s death. Thanks to them, Xun Yu could operate far more smoothly than in the original timeline. That alone was a relief.
Moreover, the roster for this campaign was truly exceptional. Xu Chu and Dian Wei stood as Cao Cao’s right and left arms. The vanguard consisted of Xiahou Yuan, Zhang Liao, and myself—the same three generals who had subdued the Southern Xiongnu. Yue Jin, who had served as my lieutenant before his promotion to Colonel, and Xu Huang were also present. With strategists Xun Yu, Cheng Yu, Guo Jia, and Xun You rounding out the command tent, every capable fighter in Cao Cao’s army had been assembled.
Yet what impressed me even more was the depth of the capital’s defenses. Cao Song held Xuchang. Cao Hong guarded the southern lines encompassing Wan, Jingzhou, and the Jiangdong frontier. Cao Ren, fully recovered from his injuries, stood ready to strike Hebei from the northern front at any moment. And Zhong Yao’s army in Chang’an, which had previously repelled the Xiongnu, remained in perfect fighting order. The layers of Cao Cao’s forces had grown insanely thick, and their momentum seemed to pierce the very heavens.
“Ziyeol, what are your thoughts on this Xuzhou expedition?”
“I believe the age of chaos should end as quickly as possible.”
“Hah, how evasive. I’m not asking that. I mean Xuande. Xuande! Mentor or not, he was still your teacher, wasn’t he?”
He was. It was under Liu Bei and his sworn brothers that I had raised my martial prowess to this level. His lessons on cavalry charges, firing arrows from within the enemy ranks, and the horsemanship required to escape traps had been especially valuable.
“In the end, it seems blood ties bend inward more strongly than a teacher’s grace.”
“Hahaha, indeed, indeed. Are you a son of Cao or of Liu? I once acknowledged Liu Xuande as a hero of the realm, but this time he has made a grave mistake.”
Cao Cao maintained an air of complete leisure as he reached Qiao County. From there he advanced slowly—almost lazily—toward Xiaopei, encircled the city, and established camp.
Inside Xiaopei, Liu Bei had already donned his armor and stood ready the moment news of Cao Cao’s host reached him.
“Elder Brother, Cao Cao’s army is already at our doorstep. Their numbers are said to approach one hundred thousand.”
“Hmmm… So Mengde truly intends to see this through to the end.”
Liu Bei clutched his head, then turned to his strategist Jian Yong.
“Xianhe, Sun Gongyou should have reached Yecheng by now. There ought to have been some result. Why have we heard nothing?”
“Imperial Inspector of Yuzhou, rumors say the entire Hebei region is in turmoil. I do not know the cause, but apparently all military movements have ceased.”
“What nonsense is that? Benchu clearly agreed to join hands against Cao Cao. I received his firm promise.”
“I cannot say, but Gongyou is likely still attempting to persuade them. Perhaps we should wait a little longer and focus on fortifying Xiaopei?”
Liu Bei let out a long sigh and reached into his robes. What he withdrew was a silk scroll bearing an edict written in the Emperor’s own blood—his finger bitten to produce the ink—and beside it, a pledge signed by loyal subjects who had sworn their resolve.
Internally, the Dongguo faction; externally, Imperial Uncle Liu shall gather the heroes of the realm to protect the court and strike down the Emperor’s enemies.
Liu Bei gripped the blood-written decree tightly and closed his eyes. He remembered the beginning—how he had first sought shelter under Cao Cao, met the young Emperor, and received both the title of Imperial Uncle and the sovereign’s trust. At the time he had believed that, despite Cao Cao’s growing power, the man would act as a capable minister like Zhou Yafu or Huo Guang, sweeping away the provincial warlords who opposed the throne.
But the Emperor, driven into a corner, had written this blood edict and sent a secret message: Escape Cao Cao’s grasp by any means and fight for me. Having received such a command, Liu Bei had no choice but to act. In the end, true to his title of Imperial Uncle, he would faithfully battle the enemy before him for the sake of the Han imperial house, no matter who that enemy turned out to be.
“Elder Brother, even now we could summon Yunchang from Xiapi…”
“No. If Yunchang leaves that place, the remaining powerful clans of Xuzhou may abandon him just as they did during the Lu Bu affair and seek only their own survival. Like it or not, we must continue persuading them until they themselves raise troops for the campaign against the traitor.”
Though Liu Bei had been suppressed by Lu Bu and unable to wield real power in Xuzhou, in that short span of time he had won the hearts of the people. When remnants of Lu Bu’s faction—Chang Xi, Gong Du, Liu Bi—and various minor powers rose in revolt, he had personally persuaded them to join his side. If he could endure with patience and continue winning over even the greatest clans, they might hold out until Yuan Shao’s main host arrived. That was Liu Bei’s calculation.
“It will be difficult.”
“Since Munyak is with us, we may open that bag of tricks to our heart’s content. Speak at your leisure.”
With Xun Yu present, the strategy meeting took on a different brilliance. Xun You, Cheng Yu, Guo Jia, and I all waited for his words.
“Liu Bei has earned the trust of the common people throughout Xuzhou, yet fighting with civilians is no easy task unless one is on the level of a Yellow Turban chieftain. Should he place ordinary folk as shields before an elite army, he will become the laughingstock of the realm.”
“True. Even though Han Yu has passed, his son Chen Deng remains.”
“Intelligence reports that Guan Yu is in Xiapi. The purpose is twofold: to persuade Chen Deng and to create a defensive measure should anyone attempt to strike our rear. This shows that Liu Bei is waging a continuous diplomatic war in the rear even as he fights at the front.”
“Xuande’s talent for persuasion is truly first-rate. Anyone who stands before him for even a single moment finds himself enchanted.”
Cao Cao gave a bitter smile, as though he himself had experienced that charm.
“Furthermore, there is something Liu Bei has overlooked: Zhang Ba of Xuzhou.”
“Didn’t that fellow swear loyalty to me? He refused to bring out his own forces, so I left him be, but still…”
There were warlords such as Zhang Ba, Yi Tong, and Zhang Xiu who had technically submitted to Cao Cao yet refused to leave their home territories, continuing instead to stockpile strength. Of course, when summoned they would appear and wield their blades, so Cao Cao had tolerated their behavior.
“Liu Bei must fight our army in front, contend with Zhang Ba’s forces in the rear, persuade the great clans of Xuzhou—led by Chen Deng—to aid him, and wait for Yuan Shao’s reinforcements. Even if he had ten bodies, it would not be enough.”
“Hahaha, and in such situations a fatal blunder always appears. The kind of move that flips the entire board.”
“The fact that fifty thousand households fled in a single stroke years ago has produced exactly this effect over time.”
As he spoke, Xun Yu glanced at me with a faint smile. Indeed, although there had been no massacre, Xuzhou’s population had steadily dwindled. Whatever Liu Bei attempted with his remaining manpower would be far more difficult than in the original history. From his perspective, the butterfly effect must have begun the moment he sought shelter with Tao Qian and clashed with the Lu Bu–Tao Shang faction.
“Wow~ With the great Master Xun here, I don’t even need to open my mouth. Just sitting quietly produces a perfect explanation.”
Guo Jia lounged with a relaxed expression that clearly said, With Xun Yu present, why should I bother? Xun You, suddenly labeled the “little Xun” in contrast to the “great Xun,” cleared his throat and addressed Cao Cao.
“My lord, if the Prefect of the Secretariat is correct, we need only maintain our current encirclement. The Liu Bei army will exhaust itself and collapse. This formation already grants us the advantage even if we do nothing.”
“I share the same view, my lord.”
When both Xun You and Cheng Yu voiced agreement, Cao Cao scratched his head.
“Sitting still and waiting is the hardest thing of all. Ziyeol, what is your opinion?”
“Uncle, I supported Sir Xun’s words even before my first campaign, under the premise that Yuan Shao would not come south. The situation remains the same. If Yuan Shao does not arrive, we have no need to launch a reckless assault on Xiaopei.”
Cao Cao nodded. Then Xun Yu spoke.
“The reason Yuan Shao cannot come is a family matter.”
Ah, so this is that event.
“What do you mean, Munyak? Family?”
“Not only his sons but his wives and concubines are said to be gravely ill. As a result, Yuan Shao cannot move freely and is unable to march from Qingzhou to Xuzhou.”
“What? All this over something so trivial?”
“My lord, the truth is that Yuan Shao’s family is not merely sick.”
“!?”
Could it be… the natural-disaster event that always appears in Romance of the Three Kingdoms?
Xun Yu produced a sealed round case from his robes and handed it to Cao Cao. Cao Cao tore it open at once, unrolled the paper inside, and read. The contents were staggering.
“This… this cannot be! Heaven itself aids me!”
“My lord, what exactly has happened?”
“Has some great calamity struck Hebei and swept away Yuan Shao’s entire family?”
To the questions from Xun You and Guo Jia, Cao Cao relayed the report directly.
“A plague is raging throughout the Yecheng region. It brings severe headaches and diarrhea—symptoms resembling a deadly epidemic. The army cannot move, and even members of Benchu’s own household have fallen ill from its contagion.”
How absurd. It was not merely his son’s illness; a full-scale epidemic had struck the Yecheng area so severely that even his heir was infected, leaving Yuan Shao completely immobilized.
“After the intelligence failure at the Reverse Path Tower, we prepared with the utmost care. Please consider this achievement as making amends for the Gongsun Zan affair…”
“Munyak, what are you saying? That matter was never your fault, and this success is even greater than that one! Hahaha!”
This was precisely why intelligence warfare mattered. After that earlier failure, Xun Yu had—under Cao Cao’s authorization—more than doubled the number of spies in Hebei, using not only the Wei merchant network but every resource available. He had scoured the region and gathered every scrap of information, releasing it at exactly the right moment.
“So that is why you kept the matter secret until the Prefect of the Secretariat reached the front. If the news had spread from Xuchang…”
“Hoo, Munyak. Only now do I understand why you waited to tell me…”
Had Cao Cao heard the news while still in Xuchang, he might have thought, A plague in Hebei? Then fifty thousand troops would suffice instead of one hundred thousand, and marched with a smaller force. The fighting would have been far fiercer. Worse, any Yuan Shao spies hidden in Xuchang would have learned of the leak, tightened security, and made future intelligence operations nearly impossible. Yuan Shao could still have detoured through Bingzhou to strike Henei or marched directly from Qingzhou. But with the full one hundred thousand? Liu Bei’s army of fewer than twenty thousand could be crushed in a single decisive blow.
This was not a war of attrition but a short, overwhelming campaign by multiple armies. Moreover, our supply line—from Dong Commandery in Yanzhou through Qiao County to Xiaopei—ran straight across flat terrain. The logistics were perfect.
“In a situation like this, is there nothing else besides sitting here on our backsides?”
“Uncle, may I dare to offer a plan?”
“Oh? Let us hear it.”
“Young Master Ziyeol’s strategy. How interesting. We have quite the audience~”
As Guo Jia said, I was about to propose a plan before Xun Yu, Xun You, Cheng Yu, and Guo Jia themselves. Yet I felt confident.
“Uncle, from what we have heard, Imperial Uncle Liu is still waiting for Yuan Shao’s reinforcements. Since Xuzhou and Qingzhou share a border, even if the troops do not come from Jizhou, the Qingzhou army could still march.”
“And?”
“We spread rumors inside Xiaopei. ‘Yuan Shao cannot move because his beloved youngest son has fallen deathly ill.’ ‘Even though his ministers urge him to support Imperial Uncle Liu at once, he is so preoccupied with his son’s illness that he has withdrawn every available force.’ Something along those lines.”
“Oh? You wish to deliberately inform Liu Bei of this in order to crush his will?”
Even if the enemy force were small, one hundred thousand troops already surrounded the city in plain sight. Even if Yuan Shao heard the news from Hebei, he could not move. Open mockery would achieve nothing because of the plague, and any probing attack would be met by either the Qingzhou or Bingzhou armies—both of which our other fronts could easily contain.
At that moment Xun Yu smiled.
“Spreading rumors to break the enemy’s morale is the most basic yet most effective principle of military strategy. My lord, the proposal from the General of the Household does not seem bad at all.”
“Excellent! We shall do exactly that. I can already picture Xuande’s brother fidgeting like a puppy that desperately needs to relieve itself!”
Xiaopei would fall soon. After that, what would Guan Yu do while remaining in Xiapi? A meeting with Guan Yu in Xiapi… yes, that seemed necessary.