The Balkan War of All Against All
Serbia boasted an intelligence agency widely recognized as the finest in Europe. Yet, even if their spies were elite, their grasp of international diplomacy and politics was that of complete novices.
The agents of the Black Hand, with their customary dexterity, had succeeded in erasing every shred of physical evidence. But what did it matter? To any outside observer, it was blindingly obvious that Serbia was the culprit.
"Your Imperial Majesty! We must sever all ties with Serbia immediately and find a new partner in the Balkans!"
"Bulgaria may harbor other designs, but Serbia is out of the question! What guarantee do we have that a rogue state won't strike again?!"
"Indeed. If Serbia were to assassinate the Austrian Crown Prince next, the fallout would be entirely beyond our power to salvage."
The Russian Tsar let out a heavy sigh at Serbia's reckless provocation.
He could not abandon the Balkans. Russia had already been humiliated by a second-rate power in the Far East. Without Serbia, how could they hope to maintain their influence in the region?
Yet, the moment those Serbian madmen went rogue, the State Duma, the nobility, and even Rasputin began clamoring for Tsar Nicholas II to cut ties with them.
Even the Russian National Revolutionary Party, utterly bewildered by behavior that seemed fit for a rogue state, halted their street battles and fell silent.
But the Tsar, firmly believing in his own geopolitical genius, was of a different mind.
"...We shall maintain our relationship with Yugoslavia."
"Your Majesty!"
"You cannot! Not only will we face immediate international isolation, but the National Revolutionary Party at home will grow even more rampant!"
"...On the contrary, this is for the best."
"Pardon?"
"The National Revolutionary Party is a pack of traitors. But if we extend a hand of reconciliation to them, might they not become our steadfast allies? Just as we saw in Italy."
Russia's loyal ministers stared at the Tsar in dumbfounded silence.
Mistaking their speechlessness for agreement, the Tsar continued.
"And frankly, is there any concrete proof that Serbia did it? To my eyes, it is highly possible that Great Britain committed the deed."
"Why on earth would Britain assassinate another nation's perfectly fine king?! The culprit is whoever stands to benefit from this!"
"Is it not your duty to discover that? But if it is Britain, it would certainly be within their character."
"???"
"You say the culprit is whoever benefits? Tell me, what benefit did Yugoslavia gain from this incident?"
"Uh..."
It was true. Even if they wanted to openly cut ties with Serbia, the assassination had been executed with such miraculous precision that there was absolutely no physical evidence.
The loyal ministers of the Russian Empire, who should have been protesting to their last breath, found themselves unable to refute the Tsar's words.
'Right, the idea of Britain doing it is contradictory. But if Britain really did it? Are we going to break our alliance?'
'And yet, the notion of Britain being behind it is strangely plausible.'
The ministers exchanged glances. The Tsar was stubborn; if they pushed back, he might throw a tantrum, go completely off the rails, and actually break the alliance with Britain. In times like these, it was best to keep one's mouth shut.
Furthermore, just as the Tsar said, Yugoslavia had gained nothing from this incident except for the psychological satisfaction of its dictator, Apis.
While a national revolutionary protest had erupted in Greece following the King's assassination, and the protesters had succeeded in overthrowing the government, this was not unique to them. Other Balkan nations were in similar states.
However, Greece's nationalist movement was exceptionally fierce, largely due to their powerful adversary, the Ottoman Empire.
And what became of Greece after its national revolution?
Naturally, calls to reclaim Constantinople and restore the territories of the Eastern Roman Empire arose, but this trajectory was by no means favorable to Serbia.
"Those uncivilized Slavic bastards assassinated our King!"
"What? Danish blood? Who cares! His late Majesty was a wise and benevolent ruler!"
"From Socrates to the Orthodox Church, we civilized those Slavic hillbillies for over a thousand years! And yet those Slavic savages dare defy the Eastern Roman Empire?"
"We must reclaim Albania and Macedonia, if only to march straight into Serbia!"
An ultra-right nationalist faction was born in Greece. And what was the primary driving force behind their creation? None other than their burning hatred for Serbia, the nation that had assassinated their King.
Ultimately, Serbia gained absolutely nothing from this affair. Instead, they had turned Greece and Bulgaria—potential allies—into bitter enemies.
Then what of Britain? Britain had nothing to gain either.
Well, whatever. Let Britain take the blame for its own past misdeeds.
"What must we do to crush Serbia?"
"Then... how about landing in Montenegro, Serbia's puppet?"
"A fine idea, but the naval maintenance costs will be formidable..."
"There is another way. We must not underestimate Serbia's military and intelligence capabilities. We must strike them in tandem with other nations."
"Wait. If so, we do not even need to deploy the navy. Can we not simply borrow a path?"
The Greek National Revolutionary Party sent telegrams proposing a joint strike against Serbia to advanced nations like the Austro-Hungarian Empire and Britain, as well as to Bulgaria.
And even... to the Ottoman Empire.
"We intend to invade Serbia. Grant us passage through your lands."
"I trust my ears do not deceive me?"
"You heard correctly. Does the Ottoman Empire not despise Serbia as well? Grant us passage, and we shall turn Serbia and Montenegro into uninhabitable wastelands."
Blinded by rage over their King's assassination, the Greeks had marched straight to the Ottomans with this absurd demand.
The Ottoman Empire was utterly bewildered. Should they view this as the sudden acquisition of a reliable ally in the Balkans? Or should they interpret it as a bluff designed to partition the Empire's Balkan territories?
No. The Ottoman Empire would take no action at all.
They were already embroiled in a war with Italy over Libya.
...For that was the nature of the Ottoman Empire.
In any case, the Balkan powder keg reeked of gunpowder and blood once more. It was just another ordinary day in the Balkans.
Just as in the original history, the Balkan War had begun.
The armies of Greece, Serbia, and Bulgaria had marched into Ottoman territory.
But... was this how it happened in the original history?
I quickly searched through my 21st-century memories.
In actual history, the Balkan War was indeed a conflict where the allied forces of Greece, Bulgaria, and Serbia invaded the Ottoman Empire.
That part wasn't much different.
But why had the war broken out a year earlier than in the original timeline?
The reason was simple. Unlike the original history, the process of forming an alliance between Serbia, Bulgaria, and Greece had been entirely skipped.
Their minds had been completely consumed by inflamed nationalism.
Rather than the Allies versus the Ottomans, it was closer to a free-for-all: the Ottomans versus Serbia versus Greece versus Bulgaria.
I quickly convened the members of the Stahl faction, excluding those who had already departed for Paris.
"Vice Chairman Stahl. As feared, war has erupted in the Balkans. What should we do?"
If it were up to me, I would have marched our troops into Serbia and swallowed it whole this very instant.
But I had to endure. I had to hold back.
The moment we invaded Serbia first, Russia, Germany, France, and Britain would automatically be dragged into the conflict.
It was still too early for World War I to begin.
For the series of reforms currently underway in our Empire to reach their full potential, we needed at least another year.
Even the cooperative bills issued by the Hungarian Agricultural Cooperative were only just beginning to see widespread use.
"What if the sparks fly to our Empire?"
"Then we must naturally join the war."
If that happened, it would actually be a blessing.
If Serbia were foolish enough to declare war on the Austro-Hungarian Empire first?
We would gladly accept and immediately proceed with bloody retribution.
Surely, the moment those Serbian madmen attacked the Empire first, the Russian Empire wouldn't dare intervene.
"The situation is not as dire as it seems. This is an opportunity to clear the debts accumulated in Hungary."
"Oh?"
"We must do business. Overproduction is causing inflation, and inventories are piling up in our factories. Let us sell massive amounts of explosives and provisions to Greece, Bulgaria, and the Ottomans."
"What if Serbia wins a surprise victory, takes Albania, and gains access to the Adriatic Sea?"
"Then we shall naturally secure Albania's independence. We can coordinate with the German Empire to support Albanian independence."
And so, our grand strategy was established.
Our Empire would maintain neutrality, support Albanian independence, and sell vast quantities of explosives and weapons.
This was a guaranteed return on investment.
The debts of the Hungarian Agricultural Cooperative had been steadily mounting, so this was the perfect opportunity to wipe the slate clean.
But... I felt we could squeeze even more out of this.
"Let us instigate revolution. We should draw Bulgaria and Greece to our side as well."
"The Emperor might keep an eye on Bulgaria's Tsar, but is Greece truly safe? They are also a National Revolutionary Republic. They could turn into enemies at any moment."
"Which is precisely why we must secure Greece. Unlike Serbia or Russia, which are close to nation-states, how long do you think a National Revolutionary Republic will last in Greece?"
Serbia's population was overwhelmingly Slavic Orthodox. No matter how much we promoted multi-ethnic socialism, it wouldn't take root.
Furthermore, if there was one thing those bastards excelled at, it was espionage. A massacre of communists might very well occur.
On the other hand, what about Greece?
It had been centuries since Greece fell under Ottoman rule. Countless Greeks had converted to Islam simply to avoid the jizya tax.
While Greeks and Turks were clearly distinguished in the 21st century, at this point in time, a Greek was simultaneously a Greek and a Turk.
For now, they were united by common enemies like Serbia and the Ottoman Empire, but once those threats were resolved, Greece would quickly disintegrate from within.
"Then what of our propaganda?"
"Let us steer them toward 'Roman nationalism' rather than Greek nationalism."
"Roman nationalism? Where is there nationalism in Rome? Was the Roman Empire not ruled by Gauls and Germans as Kaisers?"
"That is precisely why we must push it."
Greece was already using the Eastern Roman Empire as a catchphrase.
If things went well in this war?
Let them rebuild Byzantium for all I cared. As long as they crushed Serbia, we would gladly recognize it.
"It would also be wise to keep Serbia in check."
"Ah, I almost forgot. As I mentioned, it would be a blessing if Serbia declared war on us first. Let us provoke them."
"Oh? How?"
"There are many matters we could not resolve due to domestic opposition. Let us use this war as an opportunity to sweep them clean."
"Ah, that plan?"
If the conflict escalated into a global war, it would be a disaster. But if not, this war would be an exceptional opportunity.
An opportunity to resolve all the matters we had repeatedly delayed due to various circumstances.
"Where shall we begin?"
"With Bosnia, of course. Is agriculture not Bosnia's primary industry? Let us establish the Bosnian Agricultural Cooperative as well."
Bosnia was Bosnia, and Sarajevo was Sarajevo.
Though Bosnia had been successfully annexed by Austria following my attempted assassination, the region remained backward, and the Bosnian people still harbored resentment.
Because we had focused our attention on Hungary, we had loosened our grip, and those wretched Serbians had somehow managed to foster a national revolutionary group called the Young Bosnians, which was now operating in the shadows.
Just like in Hungary, we had to establish the Bosnian Agricultural Cooperative to completely stabilize the region.
"One way or another, His Majesty the Emperor is resolutely opposed to federalism. Even if we use the cooperative as a screen, he will surely recognize it as an expansion of federalism and local autonomy."
Over the past ten years of reform, the Emperor had softened considerably. His mind had become far more open.
Yet, even for him, federalism was a line that could never be crossed.
However, there was one thing the Emperor hated even more.
"Once we establish the cooperative in Bosnia, we can gather a militia just like the Hungarian Agricultural Cooperative and have them patrol the border. Serbia will absolutely love it. And seeing Serbia writhe in fury will surely put the Kaiser in high spirits."
He hated Serbia and the Russian Empire far more than he hated federalism.
Surely, mere cooperatives and trade unions were preferable to true federalism.
This was a compromise the Emperor would easily accept.
We would use the cover of war to steadily establish cooperatives, realizing local autonomy, albeit in a limited capacity.