Playing Prophet (1)

If you can get out of it, get out of it. If you can't, milk it for all it's worth!

Heh. This is the true flavor of military life.

In 1904, the year I turned twenty-one, I enlisted as a soldier in the military staff office run by Archduke Otto, using his personal backing. My official assignment was none other than "Operations Clerk of the Imperial Army Special Staff." In other words, a "son of God"—the ultimate cushy post.

Enlisting as an enlisted man rather than an officer bruised my pride a little, but... in this era, the officer corps of the Imperial Army was strictly the domain of nobles with "von" in their names. The common soldiers, however, were plebeians like me. For someone like me who aimed for mass politics over elite politics, this was actually a plus.

Of course, everything has its pros and cons. And there was definitely a con.

"Your Imperial Highness Archduke Franz Ferdinand...?! What brings you to the staff office?"

"I just came to see my brother's face."

"Brother, what on earth are you doing here?"

Archduke Franz Ferdinand visited the staff office where I was stationed almost every single day. I hurriedly dragged him outside.

"Your Highness, surely you realize that even if you visit without any official business, it will be perceived as a political message?"

"C-cough...! D-don't misunderstand, I didn't exactly come here to see you."

Are you insane?! Why is a middle-aged man sounding like some obsessive, tsundere heroine?

"Brother! You agreed that Major Stahl would stay with me for two years."

"That is true. But didn't we agree that I could take him to official events once a month?"

"Then you should only visit then! Why do you keep showing up like this?"

"I told you, I just came to see you today! I absolutely did not ‍‍‌‌⁠​​⁠‌​​‍​​‍​‌​⁠‍‌‍⁠⁠‌⁠‌‍‌‍‌‌‌‍⁠​‌​‌​‌‍‌‌‌⁠‍​​‌‍⁠‌‌⁠⁠come to see Major Stahl!"

"Ugh, just go back to Prague already! My girlfriend is supposed to visit today!"

This is driving me crazy. Two grown men are fighting over me.

The only saving grace was that despite the Kaiser backing Archduke Otto to keep Archduke Franz Ferdinand in check, Archduke Otto showed absolutely no political ambition, just as before. Thanks to Sigmund Freud's treatment, he no longer engaged in the eccentric behavior of flashing his manhood to the public, but he was now using the military staff office as a venue for his illicit affairs. Consequently, my primary duty consisted of standing guard while vividly listening to the scandalous sounds echoing in surround sound.

Maybe this isn't so bad. If Archduke Otto continues to act out, it actually works in my favor.

But doing this day in and day out was a different story.

"Stahl. My girlfriend is visiting again today. Could you fetch some nice, atmospheric scented candles by this evening?"

"...The lady who left early this morning?"

"No, no. She's just... a friend."

What on earth does this man do with a "just a friend"? At any rate, with Archduke Otto changing his mistresses almost daily and turning the military staff office into Sodom and Gomorrah, I quickly grew sick of it. Politics be damned—are you even human?!

"Have some moderation! Aren't you ashamed to face your son?!"

"This is who I am! Isn't this good for you too? A prominent heir to the throne is voluntarily taking himself out of the running!"

"......?"

"You are my subordinate. Yet, aren't you allied with Archduke Franz Ferdinand?"

Sigh, what is wrong with this guy? Did Dr. Freud not finish his treatment? In any case, I couldn't let things go on like this. Keeping watch for his affairs was one thing, but if I spent my entire two years of military service doing nothing but this, I would become an accomplice in the blink of an eye. Besides, I had a mountain of other things to do. First of all:

Finally, ammonia began to pour out. The bubble had been on the verge of bursting due to delays in factory operations, but the moment the ammonia hit the market, the Austrian stock market surged once again. It was a frenzy so wild that one had to wonder if even a war could sustain it.

At this rate, is Austria-Hungary actually going to win the war? The financial sector fluctuated so violently that such thoughts naturally crossed my mind.

"Your Highness Franz Ferdinand! You remember the slush fund I set up for you?"

"Yes, I was thinking of using that money to expand my estates a bit."

"...Don't do that. Go all-in on the stocks I wrote down for you instead."

Riding the wave of this manic stock market, I swept up a fortune massive enough to make even the wealthiest aristocrats envious. It wasn't because I was particularly special. In a market like this, buying hydrogen-related stocks was a no-brainer, since hydrogen gas was the primary raw material for ammonia. And it wasn't just the stock market of the Austro-Hungarian Empire that was in upheaval.

...I need to start preparing. For the next war.

"Stahl, have you heard? The Empire and Russia have signed a non-intervention treaty."

"It seems the war is truly about to begin."

"Since Russia will be focusing on the Far East for the time being, the conflicts in the Balkans should quiet down temporarily. Those Serbian puppets of Russia will have to behave themselves."

"Will they really?"

"Hmm?"

The Belle Époque, they called it. The peace of the twentieth century was beginning to shatter, and the starting point was the Russo-Japanese War. This war did not merely end with Russia getting beaten by the rising power of Japan; its consequences were far from trivial. I'm not just saying this because I was a Korean in my past life—it was an objective historical fact.

It was the moment Russia foundered in the Great Game, and Germany emerged as Great Britain's new rival. It was the moment the sparks of revolution ignited in Russia would spread across the globe, hurtling humanity toward the First World War. However, I had no desire to intervene in the Russo-Japanese War. I lacked the capability anyway. At most, we could sell a massive amount of ammunition and fertilizer to Russia. But honestly, would selling them some ammo and fertilizer make Russia win the war? Half of what we sold would probably end up in the pockets of corrupt Russian nobles, and by the time the other half spent months painstakingly crossing Siberia, the war would already be over. Frankly, selling the same to Japan wouldn't change much either.

Besides, wasn't the Russian Empire the arch-nemesis of our Austro-Hungarian Empire? They had constantly poked at our empire's sore spots by coaxing Serbia to their side. Whether the Russian Empire signed a non-intervention treaty with Austria or not, Serbia continued to annoy us with customs disputes as if their patron state's security was none of their concern. On top of that, the impending Bloody Sunday of 1905 and the subsequent Russian Revolution would throw Austria-Hungary into chaos as well. I had no time to worry about all that. There were only ‍‍‌‌⁠​​⁠‌​​‍​​‍​‌​⁠‍‌‍⁠⁠‌⁠‌‍‌‍‌‌‌‍⁠​‌​‌​‌‍‌‌‌⁠‍​​‌‍⁠‌‌⁠⁠two things I could do.

"Japan will win this war."

"Does that make any sense?"

"I plan to speak with Archduke Otto and draft a report. It will outline the impact on the international situation following the defeat of the Russian Empire."

"No matter how I think about it, that is absurd. The Russian Empire is a great power second only to the British Empire. You are saying they will lose to a tiny island nation in the Far East?"

"The Russian Empire is diseased. Granted, it is rarely ever healthy, but at the very least, it is in no position to project its power all the way to a small Far Eastern nation backed by Great Britain."

Shall I play the prophet using my knowledge of the future? Since I was currently stationed in the military, the timing was perfect.

Three major players operated in the Balkans (excluding the British Empire, which poked its nose into everything). First, the Austro-Hungarian Empire, advocating Pan-Germanism. Second, the Russian Empire, advocating Pan-Slavism. And finally, the Islamic power of the Ottoman Empire. It was a true powder keg of Europe, where three prideful "sick men of Europe" clashed.

Wait... did I get the cause and effect backward?

It wasn't that the sick men of Europe gathered in the Balkans to fight. Rather, everyone who fought in the Balkans—except for the British Empire—ended up becoming a sick man of Europe.

These three patients were like Goguryeo, Baekje, and Silla of the Korean Peninsula, occasionally forming alliances to beat down whichever side grew too strong. Although a temporary non-intervention agreement had been struck due to the Russo-Japanese War, a mere alliance did not change public sentiment. From the perspective of the Austro-Hungarian Empire, Russia and the Ottomans were eternal nemeses. How do you unite the empire? Just curse Russia and the Ottomans! Following that simple principle, my theory of "Russia's Defeat in the Russo-Japanese War" gained instant fame, and journalists soon flocked to interview me.

"There is one thing I must urge everyone reading this newspaper to do."

"What is that?"

"Buy Japanese government bonds! Japan will surely win!"

I couldn't influence the outcome of the war anyway. As a former Korean, it pinched my heart a little, but... Ancestors, please wait. If things go well, I will soon head to the Far East wielding the fiery bat of revolution!

...But could I ‍‍‌‌⁠​​⁠‌​​‍​​‍​‌​⁠‍‌‍⁠⁠‌⁠‌‍‌‍‌‌‌‍⁠​‌​‌​‌‍‌‌‌⁠‍​​‌‍⁠‌‌⁠⁠really do that? If my plans succeeded, wouldn't some bizarre Joseon-Japan federation emerge in the Far East, realizing a true "Greater East Asia Co-Prosperity Sphere"?

"Is there a reason you are so confident in Japan's victory? Even if the Russian Empire is a backward nation stuck in the sixteenth century, its sheer national scale is incomparably massive compared to Japan's."

"Indeed. If we compare the raw national power of Russia and Japan, Russia is far superior. However, a simple one-on-one comparison of national power is inadequate when discussing the outcome of a war."

"Meaning?"

"Russia will not be able to project even a fraction of its actual strength against Japan."

Russia's economy was already in shambles. It was so bad that I felt guilty even comparing it to Austria-Hungary. The reason our empire was the "sick man" was due to political and ethnic issues, certainly not economic ones. But the Russian Empire? Honestly, even looking beyond the Russian Empire to the Soviet Union and the twenty-first-century Russian Federation, Russia has a long-standing tradition of running the country on sheer size despite having a few screws loose. The Russian Empire was no exception. How does a country like that even exist?

"Everyone is also paying close attention to the section of your report discussing twentieth-century tactics."

"Yes. Although I am currently serving in the military, our imperial army is still stuck in the era of line infantry from the Napoleonic Wars of a century ago."

"...Does that mean twentieth-century warfare will bring unspeakable horrors?"

"Yes, indeed. The firepower projected against infantry will be overwhelming, yet science has not progressed enough to develop the means to break through that firepower."

"I found that part highly striking as well..."

Peering through the void of time, I had detailed a fraction of the horrors of the First World War in my report. Of course, trench warfare wouldn't quite apply to the vast Eastern European front. How could you have static trench warfare on such a massive scale? Nevertheless, my core point remained valid. Even if they didn't dig trenches along the entire border, a different form of trench warfare would unfold around massive fortresses.

"If a war breaks out in the manner you describe, Major Stahl, wouldn't it result in a permanent stalemate?"

"Two methods come to mind. First, launching an assault that can ignore the machine-gun fire pouring from the trenches to break through. Naturally, that won't be easy."

Wasn't the tank first developed during World War I to break through trenches? Of course, those early tanks were practically tin cans with terrible engines and armor that broke down in an instant. I briefly considered developing a tank, but honestly, I wasn't sure if Austria-Hungary would even utilize it properly. Besides, I was a chemical engineer, not a mechanical engineer. To be completely honest, I knew nothing about actual warfare. Who knows, though? I might end up whipping up some monstrous tank with dual cannons without even realizing it.

"The second method is simply a war of attrition, where the first side to exhaust themselves collapses."

"So, in the end, it comes down to logistics?"

"Precisely. The nation that can pour out more food and more ammunition will be the one to win the war. It is a simple truth, of course."

Ultimately, war is a battle of logistics. Even in the twenty-first century, instances of a legendary general turning the tide of war through sheer tactical genius and surprise attacks are rare. The one with more money and more gunpowder always wins. ‍‍‌‌⁠​​⁠‌​​‍​​‍​‌​⁠‍‌‍⁠⁠‌⁠‌‍‌‍‌‌‌‍⁠​‌​‌​‌‍‌‌‌⁠‍​​‌‍⁠‌‌⁠⁠At any rate, that concluded my foolproof show of future knowledge. I should have played the prophet much sooner. This is way easier than bringing future technology here!