Going All In (1)
The experiment itself had already been possible since the 1920s. Scientists were already capable of emitting radiation, and chemical analysis was well within their reach. The only problem? The theoretical foundation was completely nonexistent. But with Shtal around, that was no longer an obstacle. It was like a college student following a textbook recipe—simply conducting an experiment when the results were already known.
The doctoral researchers working alongside Max von Planck stroked their beards as they stared at the results of the neutron experiment.
"Isn't this... just a slightly stronger 'ray'?"
But Planck already had the answer.
"...No. It is highly likely to be a particle."
"Why is that?"
"Just... call it my intuition. Design an experiment to prove that this is indeed a particle."
"If it is a particle, what kind of particle would it be?"
"An unknown particle, other than the proton, that makes up the nucleus. It likely has no electric charge. Something that tightly binds the atomic nucleus together."
Planck rattled off the information he had received from Shtal. And, exactly as Shtal had predicted, he successfully proved that the ray was a particle—a neutron.
Goosebumps broke out on their arms.
Was it mere intuition? Sometimes, such people existed—those who could grasp the correct answer through sheer instinct. Planck, Niels Bohr, Hilbert, even Marie Curie... none of them felt worthy of being called a true genius when compared to such insight. What did a real genius look like?
A true genius is someone who possesses an intuition that seems gifted by God Himself. Look at Einstein. Who else could have ever conceived the theory of relativity?
A scientist of Planck's caliber could have easily discovered special relativity. The theoretical groundwork was there, and the experiments were feasible. Why hadn't he? Because everyone was locked in the prison of Newtonian classical mechanics; no one could break free to imagine that space and time were relative. What madman would think that space-time 'bends' under gravity?
Planck let out a deep, regretful sigh as he thought of Shtal.
That man should have gone into physics. He clearly has the spark of genius, but...
Nuclear fission was not a discovery grand enough to shatter the theory of relativity. If Shtal had been a physicist, what other monumental feats might he have achieved?
Conducting her own experiments simultaneously in a different laboratory, Marie Curie was harboring similar thoughts. She spoke to a fellow scientist, marveling at the experimental results.
"You heard this from... Director Shtal?"
"Yes. I simply conducted the experiment exactly as Shtal described."
"Why on earth didn't a man like that major in physics? Come to think of it, he didn't even go to university!"
Still, Marie Curie had known Shtal slightly longer than Planck had. She chuckled softly, rubbing the back of her neck.
"That man is an engineer and a politician to his very bones."
"What do you mean by that?"
"His way of thinking is different from us physicists. He probably just wanted to find a way to exploit Einstein's E=mc²."
"So... he envisioned nuclear fission just because he wanted to build a bomb or a generator using E=mc²?"
Curie's insight was spot on. As a former chemistry graduate student, Shtal possessed a basic understanding of quantum mechanics and experimental design. Why didn't he pursue it himself? Because it wouldn't help the Empire, and frankly, he lacked the actual capability to do the deep academic work. Curie saw right through this 'engineering mindset,' but...
"But Curie, if that's the case, why didn't Shtal just set up his own lab and do it? Why did he call you?"
"...That is what still puzzles me. To my eyes, he is a genius."
Naturally, she failed to realize that Shtal had simply peeked at the future, and was neither a true genius nor particularly brilliant on his own academic merits.
Their minds set ablaze by the prospect of a revolutionary discovery, Niels Bohr, Marie Curie, Max von Planck, and Hilbert packed their bags in a frenzy and headed for Austria. Every ingredient was now in place.
"Bombard uranium with neutrons. The element will inevitably split. At the very least, its mass will decrease, and that lost mass will be converted into energy. Got it?"
"...What is the underlying principle behind such a phenomenon?"
"Well... it's just the release of the binding energy that holds the protons and neutrons together in the nucleus."
At Shtal's vague explanation, the four scientists scrambled to question him. Four minds who either held Nobel Prizes or were fully deserving of them! Yet here they were, clamoring for answers from Shtal like eager graduate students—or worse, prying reporters.
"Do you happen to know the exact mathematical formula?"
"Is there a specific method to detect which elements it splits into?"
"How do we precisely measure that energy?"
Shtal smiled warmly. Having historical giants straight out of textbooks follow him around like baby birds chirping for food was quite a boost to his ego. Of course, his actual response was incredibly anticlimactic.
"I have no idea."
"...Pardon?"
"If I knew all that, I would have set up my own institute and published the papers myself."
The scientists' jaws dropped. Only now did they realize why Shtal had bothered to summon them. Shtal possessed a spark of genius, yes, but having the potential for genius and actually being a genius were two entirely different things.
"At any rate, give it some serious thought... Oh, and let's focus on discovering nuclear fission first before worrying about anything else. Set aside the minor mathematical details for now. I have a schedule to keep, so if you'll excuse me..."
The scientists felt a strange sensation. This feeling... they had definitely experienced it somewhere before... But having long passed their youth, the elder scholars couldn't quite put a finger on it. It was Niels Bohr, roughly Shtal's contemporary, who finally identified the source of that bizarre deja vu.
"...It reminds me of my master's program."
"Your master's?"
Chills ran down the arms of all four scientists. Their minds flashed back to the trials of their youth. No matter how brilliant they had been from an early age, none of them had escaped the classic graduate school experience: a professor dumping a vague research topic on their desks before vanishing to attend a conference or an external event. To think they were being treated like lowly master's students at their age! And to make matters worse, the 'professor' in this scenario was Shtal, a man far less academically qualified than any of them.
"...Well, let us at least run the experiment as Shtal suggested."
No matter how primitive their equipment might be, failure was impossible with a lineup like this. The 'professors' experimented, proved, and analyzed exactly as Shtal had directed. Within a mere few months, papers outlining the fundamental concepts of nuclear fission came pouring out. It was no surprise that nuclear fission was discovered seventeen years ahead of schedule, sending shockwaves through the scientific community.
Truth be told, I am not the type of person who enjoys scolding my subordinates. I'm barely comfortable speaking casually to people, for heaven's sake. And yet... I found myself unable to hold back my frustration with the asset management department of the SFW Chemical Company.
"What on earth is this portfolio?!"
"Pardon? Vice Chairman Shtal... may I ask what the issue is?"
"Your holdings in New York stocks are far too low! This is a time when we should be filling one hundred percent of our portfolio with New York equities without a single worry!"
"But Vice Chairman... such a portfolio allocation is far too risky. While it's true that emerging technology stocks are skyrocketing right now..."
"But?"
"It is highly dangerous! People are dumping insane amounts of money into technologies that haven't even been commercialized yet! The bubble is bound to burst soon, and everything will collapse."
Sigh. I let out a heavy breath. In my past life, I had been a textbook retail investor—a mere ant in the market. But now that I was playing in the big leagues, I finally understood how things worked.
"When people are actively worrying about a bubble, that is precisely when the bubble will never burst! It's when everyone is celebrating an endless boom that the crash actually hits."
"Yes, you have mentioned that before, Vice Chairman."
"No, you clearly haven't understood a thing. At any rate, the New York stock market will absolutely not fall for at least the next three to four years. If it crashes and we suffer massive losses, I will dive naked into the Danube River myself. So go all in right now."
The exact cause of the Great Depression remained a mystery even in the twenty-first century. Sure, there were plenty of economic theories... but living through the roaring era right before the crash made it easy to see why it happened. The current market was remarkably similar to the dot-com bubble. With global peace restored, the entire world economy was experiencing an unprecedented boom. Consequently, productivity and stock prices were soaring in tandem. People who suddenly found themselves with excess capital wondered where to invest their money. As they looked around... Oh? Revolutionary new technologies that will change the world are popping up everywhere! Naturally, they poured their fortunes into these emerging tech sectors. I could see the future as clearly as the palm of my hand. The pace of technological advancement would never keep up with the massive influx of capital. And the result? A spectacular collapse of the bubble, of course. Insane amounts of money were currently flooding into new technologies like television and radio.
"Hmm... Riding the bubble to make a quick fortune isn't a bad strategy, but..."
Something felt missing.
"By the way, is the investment into the Hungarian Agricultural Cooperative coming along well?"
"By investment... do you mean the aviation-related stocks?"
"Yes. And besides that, didn't SFW Chemical sell off a massive amount of shares when we invented ammonia synthesis before the war?"
"Of course, some capital is flowing in from the United States, but... it's still rather lackluster."
The 1910s were truly the golden age of the Austro-Hungarian Empire. Stock prices always move on anticipation. However, once actual production capacity reached its peak, investment was bound to taper off. The empire had already shown everything it was capable of, and the initial excitement had faded. Consequently, the flow of American money—blinded by the bubble—into Austria was relatively small. Instead, American investments were heavily concentrated in Germany. It was obvious to anyone that Germany would experience massive growth within the Prague Treaty Organization. Germany was simply generating far higher expectations than Austria.
"It really is a shame."
"What do you mean, sir?"
"It would be wonderful if we could siphon off even a fraction of the wealth from those American chimpanzees."
But the asset management team leader tried to dissuade me.
"That is dangerous."
"Pardon? What is?"
"If that Great Depression you keep warning us about actually happens... won't the American investors pull all their money out?"
"And?"
"Then our company's assets will be in jeopardy, and we will be dragged down with them, won't we?"
True. If one knew about the impending Great Depression, that would be a logical concern. I had indeed gathered the company executives in the past to drop hints about the crash and scare them a bit. But it seemed I had scared them a little too well.
"If you're that terrified, we can just convert all the invested capital into gold."
"What? If we do that, the investors will..."
"You should discuss the details with Adolf Hitler, the Hungarian Agricultural Cooperative Leader. He is an absolute master at pulling off these kinds of schemes. As for the practical execution, coordinate with Hjalmar Schacht, the President of the Clearing Bank."
Desperate times call for extraordinary measures. Investors hate it when you hoard safe-haven assets? The solution was simple: just don't let them know you're buying safe-haven assets in the first place!
"That is fraud, Vice Chairman!"
"Fraud? When the Great Depression actually hits, those investors will bow their heads and weep with gratitude. Oh, and this is strictly between you and me."
As I gave him a playful wink, the team leader stared back at me with a look of sheer exhaustion. Yes, a secret indeed. Who else but me, armed with knowledge of the future, would dare pull off such a stunt?
...I think I finally understood why the Empire's economic bureaucrats were turning into complete simpletons. These were incredibly brilliant men. Yet, after witnessing me pull off economic miracles a few times, they had completely forgotten the fundamentals of economics and devolved into chimpanzees.
"Vice Chairman Shtal. That is all well and good, but..."
"Is there another problem?"
"Ultimately, don't we need the American investors to actually pay attention to us first?"
"...Ah, right."
Indeed. How could I lure those chimpanzees over? As I fell into deep thought, the team leader spoke up.
"Actually... there is an expert in this field."
"An expert?"
"A young fellow. He's only in his early twenties, but he's already showing incredible talent in the field of marketing."
"Let's have a chat with him. What is his name?"
"They call him Paul Joseph Goebbels."
"......!"
When on earth did this man come to Austria? And of all places, how did he end up at our company?
"Bring him to me immediately."