The Visible Hand

The German branch of the International Trade Clearing Bank (ITCB), an organ of the Prague Treaty Organization, was a living hell.

Astronomical salaries and immense social prestige! Yet now, with the organization only just finding its footing, the Clearing Bank's employees barely slept four hours a night. Was it because the system hadn't settled yet? Far from it. Thanks to Austria's highly advanced administrative machinery, the framework had locked into place far quicker than anyone had anticipated. It was simply that the job was inherently, frantically busy—much like Wall Street in the United States.

"We've got an additional order for four thousand tons of oil from the Ottoman Empire!"

"Find a supplier immediately! At this rate, we're going to show a deficit. Engines! Didn't Greece request automotive engines last time?"

Every single trade transaction was transparently recorded in the ledgers. Running such a system without computers was sheer madness. At headquarters, analysts frantically used those ledgers to forecast demand and direct supply.

And it wasn't just the German branch headquarters that was swamped. Recording, organizing, and dispatching documents based on those dense ledgers fell entirely on the shoulders of low-ranking civil servants. If anything, the physical toll was heaviest on them.

"Excuse me... is this where we file the import declaration for Austria?"

"Yes. Take a seat and wait."

"What?! We need to run our factories with coal right now, and the line is this long?!"

"Everyone is in the same boat. Please wait your turn."

Every import and export had to be 'declared,' a process akin to registering property deeds. Naturally, the civil service desks were on the verge of exploding.

"So from now on... every single import and export has to be declared?"

"This is incredibly inefficient!"

"What if we... slip it through France on the quiet?"

The sudden onset of complex systems and regulations inevitably led to rampant smuggling. By paying a slight premium, merchants sought efficiency by smuggling goods through France, which was not yet a member of the Bancor system. The customs officers, drowning in this sudden surge of contraband, were driven to wit's end.

Germany, at least, was in a relatively better position. As an economic powerhouse, Germany had surpassed even Austria in trade volume and fluctuations in its Bancor accounts. But Germany had a pre-existing administrative foundation to lean on. In Vietnam, where the vast majority of the population was illiterate, they practically had to import bureaucrats. Employees from Austria's various Agricultural Cooperatives had already departed for Vietnam. On top of that, with massive funds being transfused from the Clearing Bank... it was far more than a newly independent, underdeveloped nation could handle.

To make the system work at all, they had to build schools like mad before they could even think of factories. How did such a system manage to function? For one, Germans were naturally law-abiding. For another, the German economy was driven by state-influenced cooperatives.

Hjalmar Schacht, Governor of the German branch of the International Trade Clearing Bank. Schacht had always stood at the absolute pinnacle of capitalism. And to a capitalist like Schacht, the state of the world was turning into something deeply peculiar.

"What on earth is this... capitalism or communism?"

On paper, the world operated under the banner of 'free trade' and 'free markets.' Yet, wherever goods fell short, the Prague Treaty Organization stepped in without fail.

"A request came in from the Prague Treaty Organization?"

"Yes, sir! They are developing a railway in Vietnam, and Poland has agreed to supply the steel rails."

"And?"

"Shouldn't we get a piece of the action? We should sell them the finished locomotives."

"Can we handle the volume?"

"We can draw funds from the Treaty Organization. We need to expand our trade quota as much as possible, don't we?"

Neither surplus nor deficit could be allowed to grow excessive. Whether a nation was in surplus or deficit, it was deemed an unbalanced state disrupting the global trade order. Consequently, the Clearing Bank—closely intertwined with the state and national administrations—meticulously adjusted trade. In the realm of international commerce, this interventionist tendency was magnified tenfold.

Schacht stared at the transparently recorded trade ledgers. It was still difficult in these early days of the system's implementation, but... what would happen once accounting and administration became even slightly more precise? In the domain of trade, supply and demand would be forecasted, allowing a certain group to 'artificially' manipulate them.

As Schacht studied the transaction records, he fell deep into thought.

'Hmm... if this keeps up, Germany will soon swing into a surplus. And that's even before the reconstruction of Southern Germany is complete...'

'Vietnam is a money-devouring monster, as expected. Vice Chairman Stahl seems to have made up his mind. He's openly pushing resources their way.'

'Iron and coal are being sucked into Vietnam and Greece. It'll taper off in about ten years, but in the short term, we must increase our iron ore production.'

As Hjalmar Schacht pondered how to balance the trade scales, a sudden, inexplicable chill ran down his spine. For a moment, he searched for the source of this eerie sensation.

There was absolutely nothing wrong. If anything, the German economy was booming, despite Southern Germany not being fully rebuilt. Through these transparent trade ledgers, he had realized that there were countries in far worse shape than Germany.

Poland, Greece, the Ottoman Empire, Vietnam... Compared to them, Germany was in paradise. As the saying goes, a rich man's ruin lasts three years. The shipyard infrastructure built by that Kaiser fellow remained intact. Berlin and the north had escaped the ravages of war.

Poland and Greece had their lands utterly devastated. Vietnam, which had no industrial base to begin with, was still floundering in depression, barely managing to rebuild with the Clearing Bank's aid. In this landscape, Germany was the second-greatest economic power in the Treaty Organization, surpassed only by Austria.

Factories ran day and night to meet the reconstruction demands of these underdeveloped nations. With trade barriers dismantled, Germany had transformed into an export powerhouse overnight. Since the resulting surplus could not be allowed to grow too large, it was funneled directly back into domestic infrastructure. It was an economic cycle of unprecedented scale!

"German industrial might is indeed the greatest in the world!"

"Look at that. Austria tried to swallow the world on its own, failed, and in the end, had to beg our Germany for help."

"To be honest... it felt quite humiliating to ask for help from Austria, which was practically a backwater just a few years ago."

"To think we'd have a boom like this so soon after the war!"

Even while living in apartments half-shattered by artillery shells, the citizens never lost their smiles. One symbol of this was the soaring sales of beer. Day after day, German workers gathered in beer halls to loudly toast to the bright future of the German economy. The people were proud of their nation.

"How can our output be lower than the Frankfurt Steel Cooperative, which was practically ruined by the war?!"

"We'll pay you handsomely, so please work overtime! Can Bavaria afford to fall behind Berlin?"

‍‍‌‌⁠​​⁠‌​​‍​​‍​‌​⁠‍‌‍⁠⁠‌⁠‌‍‌‍‌‌‌‍⁠​‌​‌​‌‍‌‌‌⁠‍​​‌‍⁠‌‌⁠⁠

Though the war had wiped out the conglomerates, regional cooperatives now drove the German economy forward. When Germany first adopted ‍‍‌‌⁠​​⁠‌​​‍​​‍​‌​⁠‍‌‍⁠⁠‌⁠‌‍‌‍‌‌‌‍⁠​‌​‌​‌‍‌‌‌⁠‍​​‌‍⁠‌‌⁠⁠the bizarre system of a 'cooperative state,' Schacht had despaired. Yet, ironically, in this pseudo-communist framework, the cooperatives thrived.

'Yes. Our Germany is an economic giant. When the war ended, I never could have imagined this. To think reconstruction could happen so rapidly...'

Granted, Frankfurt still looked like a grim, war-torn wasteland. But it was also true that things had gotten 'relatively' better.

'There's nothing wrong. So why... why do I keep feeling this nagging sense of unease?'

Had he been too deeply entrenched in classical economics? Just as he was about to dismiss these idle thoughts with a self-deprecating sigh and return to his work—

"..."

A sudden realization struck Schacht's mind like a bolt of lightning. He finally understood the source of his unease!

"The invisible hand... has become a visible hand. Good heavens... is the Clearing Bank monitoring all of this?!"

Schacht found himself recalling the theology lessons from his Gymnasium days.

*Our Lord God is omniscient and omnipotent. But a true theologian would not stop there; they would ponder deeper. Is God omnipotent because He is omniscient? Or is He omniscient because He is omnipotent? Can an omniscient being truly be omnipotent? Conversely, can an omnipotent being be omniscient?*

Of course, in the twentieth century, such theological debates were mere trivia—the equivalent of arguing whether Captain America or Iron Man would win in a fight. Why did such a question surface in his mind at this exact moment?

"...Austria has become omniscient. Now, is all that remains for them to become omnipotent?"

If Schacht had pondered this while looking at something like the Marshall Plan, he would have deemed America omnipotent. But Austria, lacking the capacity for omnipotence, had chosen omniscience instead.

"Of course, they cannot be omnipotent. This isn't some ridiculous conspiracy theory about the Freemasons ruling the ‍‍‌‌⁠​​⁠‌​​‍​​‍​‌​⁠‍‌‍⁠⁠‌⁠‌‍‌‍‌‌‌‍⁠​‌​‌​‌‍‌‌‌⁠‍​​‌‍⁠‌‌⁠⁠world."

Omniscience is the perfect perception of possibility; omnipotence is the perfect realization of it. Though often uttered in the same breath, they exist on entirely different planes. Stahl was no god. He couldn't achieve both. Knowing the future did not grant the divine authority to alter it.

Schacht had no way of knowing, but this was precisely how the Soviet Union would ruin its economy in another timeline—by assuming omnipotence and trying to control everything down to toothbrushes and razor blades. Stahl and Keynes had boldly abandoned 'omnipotence.' Instead, they compromised with the market to secure 'omniscience.' And if one knows every possibility, they possess, at the very least, the ability to choose the lesser of two evils.

"Indeed. This isn't free trade; it's a mutation of communism. No, is it Stahlism? The political philosophers babble about 'networks' and 'governance.'"

In any case, Austria had positioned itself to play God with a visible hand. Schacht had no doubt that Germany would one day surpass Austria's productive capacity. When that day came, would the leadership of the Clearing Bank and the Prague Treaty Organization shift to Germany?

Schacht shook his head. Even now, Austria was monitoring the demand of member states to regulate supply. Even if Germany became the world's factory... Austria would still monitor and manipulate Germany's output.

He was lost in these thoughts for a long while when... a knock sounded at his office door.

"Come in."

"Pardon the interruption, Governor Schacht, but a letter has arrived for you from Prague."

"Hmm? For me personally, not ‍‍‌‌⁠​​⁠‌​​‍​​‍​‌​⁠‍‌‍⁠⁠‌⁠‌‍‌‍‌‌‌‍⁠​‌​‌​‌‍‌‌‌⁠‍​​‌‍⁠‌‌⁠⁠the German branch?"

"Yes, sir. It is addressed directly to you."

Puzzled, Schacht opened the letter. His eyes widened. Though the nominal sender was Prague, the actual sender was Stahl himself.

Until now, Marx Stahl had served as the President of the International Trade Clearing Bank. However, a mere politician like Stahl could not hold the presidency indefinitely. It was politically unfeasible, and Stahl's own financial expertise had its limits. Thus, Stahl had summoned Schacht—the man who, in the original timeline, devised the Mefo bills and engineered the economic miracle of the Nazi regime—to the Prague Treaty Organization.

Stahl had worried that Schacht might decline, much like Keynes had. But Schacht had already pierced through to the core of the Bancor system. Furthermore, unlike Keynes, Schacht was a man driven by a quiet ambition for power—even if he wasn't quite on Hitler's level. Who could turn down the power to pull the strings of the global economy? It was a position that allowed one to play the role of the Freemasons, the Knights Templar, or the Rothschild family!

Without a moment's hesitation, Schacht set off for Prague to claim the presidency.