The Stahl Plan, Part 1
There were two main things I needed to focus on going forward. First, keeping British colonialism in check. This was well within our empire's capabilities. It was a highly cost-effective venture—low cost, high return.
The Soviet Union didn't pump money into independence activists for nothing. Smacking the British in the back of the head with mere pocket change is the ultimate bargain.
In the 1920s, aid was funneled into China and Joseon. Later, this support would shift to Cuba, Yemen, Vietnam, and even Africa. The Soviets didn't do this on a whim. For an ideological state, nothing made better business sense. Honestly, how much money did the Soviets actually spend on Vietnam?
They didn't even need to spend much. Communists occur naturally. It was like providing them with oxygen.
Second, benchmarking the United States to integrate Western Europe into our empire's economic sphere. I explained this concept to Hitler and the other bureaucrats...
"Vice Chairman, the side effects seem like they could be extremely severe."
"But our empire is currently suffering from a massive surplus of goods... We have to dump them somehow. And we might as well secure some political influence while we're at it."
"Will it really work...?"
"Why wouldn't it? If our productivity falls short, we can just cover it with our mountains of gold."
Overriding their objections, I poured funds into Germany as a trial run to cover very basic infrastructure reconstruction. And... I quickly realized why the bureaucrats had opposed it.
"The Ottoman Empire has become unstable! Every factory is screaming for oil!"
"Let's talk to Romania for now."
"Oil isn't the only problem! From coal to iron and rubber, we don't have a single resource to spare!"
First of all, the resources were unmanageable. We had been playing the part of Europe's factory, but... I had forgotten. No matter how incredible Middle Eastern oil money was... that was merely an illusion created because the United States was so overwhelmingly superior in every other field.
American oil money was vast enough to slap Middle Eastern oil money right across the face. Moreover, while the Middle East only produced oil, the United States produced iron, coal, rubber—literally every raw material needed for industry!
"We still have cards left to play! Thanks to the last war, didn't our empire absorb nearly half of the world's gold?"
"That is correct."
"Then let's show them the terrifying power of gold. We will strongly guarantee gold convertibility. From now on, our Krone will become the global reserve currency."
The second reason the American Marshall Plan succeeded was its robust gold standard, which established the dollar as the global reserve currency. You show the world, 'Look, we have this much gold!' Once you gain their trust, you print dollars like crazy and scatter them. Yet, the dollar's value doesn't plummet. Why? Because it can be exchanged for gold at any moment. You can print money without worrying about inflation.
"Let's temporarily halt physical aid and give them our currency instead. Then, they will use that currency to buy goods from our companies. It will naturally stimulate our economy!"
This was a literal perpetual motion machine! Grinning from ear to ear, I made my next move. We were slightly lacking compared to the US—maybe on par with the Soviet Union? But we still had decent productivity, enough to play the 'factory of the world.' And on top of that, we had gold reserves that rivaled America's. With this, surely we could feed a country like Germany, right?
I immediately launched the Stahl Plan. And... exactly three months later.
"Vice Chairman, prices are skyrocketing! We must resolve this immediately!"
"What should we do now, Vice Chairman Shtal?!"
Confronted with yet another crisis, my mind went completely blank. As the de facto leader of the nation, I had to maintain my dignity. Since I sat there with a triumphant, knowing expression, I could see the economic bureaucrats visibly relaxing. I carefully opened my mouth.
"Why exactly are prices rising?"
"..."
The bureaucrats' faces stiffened once more. Damn it, I don't know either, so what do you want me to do! The United States fed Western Europe with the Marshall Plan and saved the Soviet Union with Lend-Lease. But how on earth did they pull that off? We had risen to become a superpower with roughly the second-largest GDP in the world. Yet, was our weight class so pathetic that we couldn't even feed a single war-torn Germany?
For reference, as of now, first place was the United States, and third was China. What kind of place was China even... Anyway.
I had overlooked the most crucial fact of being a political leader. Unless they were a soldier to begin with, a politician meddling in war always led to ruin. The economy was no different. The very idea of me—someone who hadn't even read Das Kapital, let alone The Wealth of Nations—daring to touch the economy was the real problem. How could a guy who had done nothing but play around with promissory notes and run scams with Hitler and Ferdinand hope to handle the real economy?
"...Let's send an SOS."
"To whom?"
"I have someone in mind."
Yes. This was exactly how one should use their future-knowledge cheat code. There was no need for me to expose my own ignorance by trying to mimic the Bretton Woods system and the Marshall Plan. After all, wasn't the very founder of Bretton Woods alive and well right now?
"Oh, by the way. What is my brother-in-law up to these days?"
"I heard he is helping with the family business."
"...So, he's slacking off."
I would use my brother-in-law, Wittgenstein, who had connections at Cambridge University, to lure Keynes over. As a reincarnated person from the future, the standard play was to summon a dapper fellow like Keynes, pitch him a concept like, "What do you think of this kind of system?" and watch the economic expert gasp, Oh! What a genius! Of course, the reality would be that the economic expert would end up sweating blood to solve all the practical flaws in the "genius idea" the future-man casually tossed at them.
"Hmm... What is Professor Wittgenstein up to these days? I worry he might be throwing another fit about wanting to kill himself."
"Well, since his sister is the wife of the Austro-Hungarian Empire's most powerful man, he's been eating so well he's grown quite plump."
"Then he should hurry back to the university. Ever since that Shtal fellow summoned him once, he hasn't shown any intention of returning."
Keynes, who had returned to his professorship after working for the British Treasury during the war, clicked his tongue. What on earth would become of Europe? As the most brilliant of Europe's economists, Keynes had seen right through Stahlism from the very beginning.
...It's just a pile of garbage wrapped in fancy words. This is worse than Das Kapital.
Of course, Shtal's theory of "creating demand" by handing out money to workers did resonate with Keynes. The methodology of the state actively intervening in the economy was also deeply impressive. In the early 20th century, where libertarianism and laissez-faire ruled the day, the emergence of a figure like Shtal was not entirely a bad thing for Keynes. But even so, that was the limit of Shtal's capabilities.
In any case, Keynes had instantly seen through Shtal's intentions. I don't know what he's thinking, but it's just pure populism. It'll collapse soon enough. Thus, about ten years ago, Keynes had completely lost interest in Shtal.
And now, in the autumn of 1917, Keynes's prediction had missed the mark entirely. A craze for Stahlism had swept across the ruined continent of Europe, and riding that wave, Shtal began pouring massive financial resources into Europe.
Wait... Did that young Shtal fellow actually have a plan all along? Just as Keynes was pondering this, a letter arrived from Wittgenstein. It was an urgent SOS message containing Shtal's economic thoughts. Keynes read the letter with deep contemplation.
So he wasn't just a simple populist after all. He was genuinely acting with the intention of stimulating the economy through government intervention.
The foolish things Shtal was doing in Germany weren't merely for the sake of securing political influence and populism. What was the most impressive aspect of Shtal's economic policies that Keynes discovered while studying the Austro-Hungarian Empire? Conventional, old-fashioned politicians naturally obsessed over deficits and cut government spending. But Shtal's approach was different.
That Shtal fellow... honestly doesn't seem to care whether there's a deficit or not.
Of course, Shtal did care about the government deficit in his own way. But that was by 21st-century standards. Having lived in the 21st century, Shtal took it for granted that governments ran deficits. Naturally, when the deficit grew so massive it made his heart skip a beat, what did Shtal choose to do?
Shtal: "Your Imperial Highness! This... the deficit is way too big."
Archduke: "Shtal, you! Are you determined to ruin the country?!"
Shtal: "I'm telling you, we can just win it back and pay it off! Win it back! So please, write me some promissory notes~ Pretty please?"
Archduke: "Go talk to Hitler!"
Shtal: "Oh, right. I forgot. We still have some shell companies we can use!"
...He had simply buried the debt documents in the ground and stopped caring. The voters, Shtal, and Hitler were all happy as long as the debt documents were out of sight. But to the genius economist Keynes, it was glaringly obvious.
I thought he did that just because he was a lunatic... Well, he is a lunatic. But that was an intentional strategy?
Keynes meticulously read the letter Shtal had sent.
"...The role of the government in the market is simply to pour money into it. Fiscal deficits are not a problem at all. The real problem is when the private sector refuses to spend."
Up to this point, it was impressive. The next sentence, however, was truly a masterpiece of absurdity.
"So I spent the money, and now we have inflation. Why on earth is this happening? Please save me. I beg of you."
Keynes cried out in sheer bewilderment. "Because you printed money, you idiot! Of course the currency value dropped! What on earth is this madman talking about?!"
That wasn't the only thing to take issue with.
"I have a question. As you know, Professor, Europe's gold is in our hands. Honestly, we haven't even printed currency exceeding our gold reserves. Since we guarantee gold convertibility anyway, why is there inflation?"
"Anyway, following your theories, Professor Keynes, I stimulated demand first. If consumption increases, production should follow, so why isn't it working?"
"So, to mitigate the rising prices, I am planning to simply raise wages through welfare policies. I know it's a bad solution in the long run, but in the long run, we are all dead anyway, aren't we?"
Keynes trembled with rage. No... at the very least, Shtal seemed to grasp the general 'macroeconomic direction.' Keynes couldn't fault him on that. But his microeconomic logic was completely backward! Keynes shouted as he refuted Shtal's letter point by point.
"Good grief, you absolute fool... Gold my foot! Prices are rising simply because demand has exploded!"
"How can supply increase when the factories don't even have coal, you idiot!"
"And if you raise wages, prices will just rise by that exact amount! Then you'll raise wages again, and prices will rise again!"
Shtal had sent the letter filled with Keynesian theories that he thought he understood. He believed he was asking questions about problems arising from Keynesian principles. Naturally, his intention was to flatter Keynes into thinking, Oh! Is this the economics of the future?! Truly, a leader of Europe! Of course, his plan backfired spectacularly.
The questions Shtal raised had nothing to do with advanced Keynesian economics. They were basic concepts anyone who had read an introductory economics textbook would know. It did nothing but prove just how much of an economic blockhead Shtal truly was.
Keynes fumed, his face flushed with anger for a long time. Then, he sighed and clutched his head.
"Are there no economic bureaucrats in the Austro-Hungarian Empire? How could they let the leader of a nation remain this ignorant?"
First of all, Shtal was a former scientist. He had boosted the economy through technological innovations like Penicillin, ammonia synthesis, airplanes, and armored tractors. Second, Shtal was a populist politician. The infrastructure improvements he pushed for as a politician rarely had a negative impact on the economy. Furthermore, the biggest issue in the Austro-Hungarian economy was its unbalanced infrastructure. Though Shtal hadn't intended it, his projects had created a massive synergy effect, much like South Korea's Gyeongbu Expressway.
Lastly, Shtal was a con artist. Any economic problems that arose anyway were buried under his 'promissory note shenanigans.' And through war and purges, he somehow managed to 'win it back and pay it off.' What did the Austrian economic bureaucrats think as they watched Shtal's bizarre antics?
"Wow! Shtal is a genius after all!"
"Huh? It shouldn't work like that... but the empire's economy is growing exponentially anyway!"
"I guess we were wrong and Shtal was right!"
The economic bureaucrats around Shtal had already been brainwashed by him. Just as Keynes lamented, there was truly not a single competent economic bureaucrat left around Shtal!
Regardless of the process, Shtal's underlying intention had succeeded. If things go on like this, the global economy will collapse, and another war will break out. I cannot leave it like this.
Not long after, at the Austro-Hungarian immigration office. Thump! An entry permit stamp was slammed onto Keynes's passport.