The American Response
“As of now, we have no intelligence suggesting that North Korea is developing an SLBM.” Serin pulled a document from her file and displayed it. “However, we have received intelligence that they are modifying a barge for that very purpose. Can South Korea truly handle North Korea? It is time to make a decision. Since you already know, I will speak plainly.”
“……?”
“The U.S. Strategic Command is currently reviewing Operation Plan 5027.”
“Isn't Operation Plan 5027 a contingency plan for a full-scale invasion by the North?”
“Correct. We are reviewing an addition to the plan that would involve using 80 tactical nuclear weapons to eliminate the North’s capabilities in one strike, specifically targeting their ICBMs capable of reaching the U.S.”
“That is out of the question. Nuclear weapons on a peninsula as small as ours….”
“If it cannot be controlled, it must be disposed of. The current South Korean government only talks about dialogue and communication with the North, but do you really think what Section Chief Choi suggested is possible? Especially regarding the SLBM—isn't South Korea’s capability insufficient? You only have 16 anti-submarine warfare aircraft; don't you have no way to stop them?”
Realizing that the U.S. was unaware of their Unmanned Underwater Vehicles (UUVs), Section Chief Choi pulled a different set of documents from his bag.
“Serin, you just implied that if we could stop the SLBM, a diplomatic approach might be possible, correct?”
“…….”
“The data here pertains to the unmanned underwater vehicles deployed during the recent shelling of the western front. If North Korea plans to launch an SLBM, we will use these UUVs to sink their entire submarine fleet. Since they are capable of 30 days of autonomous navigation, we can eliminate their submarines at any time, provided the South Korean government has the will to do so. Doesn't this satisfy the U.S. requirements?”
“…Where were these UUVs developed? They haven't appeared in our intelligence….”
“They are classified under a black project. Even within the South Korean Navy, only the operating unit is aware of their existence.”
“Even if you have these UUVs, can you really eliminate North Korea’s submarines? Has their combat capability been proven?”
“Haha. Please, take a look at the data. Evidence of our UUVs tracking North Korean submarines in autonomous mode is attached. Furthermore, we have a track record of identifying Russian submarines during test evaluations.”
After reviewing the materials, Serin replied, “…Fine. I will report this to my superiors for now. However, we cannot simply leave a North Korea that is actively launching ICBMs alone. What do you intend to do about that?”
Section Chief Choi produced satellite imagery secured through Starlink.
“What is this?”
“These are on-site photos from when Kim Jong-un launched the ICBM. Since he observed the launch from a distance of about 300 km, or 186 miles, from the Musudan site, how about we launch our own surface-to-surface missiles at the exact same distance?”
“Ho ho ho. You mean to tell them, ‘We are watching, so don't try anything useless’?”
“Yes. How about we issue a warning to the North at this level and maintain continuous monitoring? We still have time, as they are currently working on nuclear miniaturization and ensuring the reliability of their ICBMs.”
“Good. I think my home office will be satisfied with this level of response strategy. You do know this, right?”
“……?”
“Even if I submit this report, the final decision will be made by Secretary of Defense Mattis and the President of the United States.”
“I will begin persuasion efforts through diplomatic channels for the rest.”
Upon leaving the U.S. Embassy, Section Chief Choi Jae-ho immediately picked up his phone.
“Director. The meeting has just concluded.”
“We have agreed that the CIA’s Korea branch will submit a report based on the strategy I proposed.”
“Not exactly. The CIA Korea branch will send an analysis report and response strategy to the White House, and the final decision will be made by Secretary of Defense Mattis and the U.S. President. We must resolve the rest through diplomatic channels.”
The NIS Director went straight to the Blue House, reported on the U.S. movements, and explained the results of the negotiations with the CIA to the President.
“Mr. President, the U.S. is furious over North Korea’s nuclear tests and ICBM launches and is reviewing war plans against them. According to intelligence, they are establishing a plan to completely eliminate the North Korean threat through a preemptive strike using nuclear missiles.”
“Hmm… Director, speak clearly. Are you saying the U.S. has intelligence indicating they will launch a direct attack on North Korea?”
“Yes, that is correct. Given that they are establishing concrete plans, we must send a diplomatic envoy to request a halt to any attacks.”
“It seems to be more serious than I thought. Should I send the National Security Advisor?”
“Yes. He appears to be the most suitable person for the job.”
The President pressed the call button and summoned the National Security Advisor to his office. The Advisor, having been called suddenly, saw the NIS Director with the President and sensed that something major had occurred as he took his seat. The NIS Director explained the U.S. movements and briefed them on measures to halt the U.S. will to conduct war. After a moment of contemplation, the National Security Advisor spoke.
“Mr. President, this does not appear to be a problem that can be solved by a visit to the U.S. alone.”
“What is the problem?”
“While we can calm the situation this time by sending a message that both South Korea and the U.S. are watching North Korea’s movements, there is no possibility that North Korea will stop its nuclear tests and ICBM launches here. After this visit to the U.S., I believe I must go to North Korea and deliver a message of reconciliation directly.”
“Aren't we already constantly offering dialogue to North Korea, yet they aren't responding?”
“Although it is said that the succession structure stabilized after the execution of Jang Song-thaek, the domestic situation in the North remains chaotic, so I believe we must hold an inter-Korean summit. Since the PyeongChang Winter Olympics are next year, we should prepare a phase-shifting event by requesting the formation of a unified team and Kim Jong-un’s attendance.”
“A phase-shifting event…? Are you talking about the reunion of separated families?”
“Yes. Kim Jong-un’s attendance is likely impossible, but wouldn't someone from the North Korean high-ranking officials come? We must naturally open high-level talks to open diplomatic channels.”
“That’s not a bad plan. Do you intend to go yourself, Advisor?”
“Once the NIS conducts back-channel negotiations with North Korea, I will go.”
“Understood. Let’s try to calm the U.S. while simultaneously pushing for an inter-Korean summit.”
As the National Security Advisor left the President’s office, he said to the NIS Director, “I will visit the U.S. to meet Secretary of Defense Mattis, so please proceed with the back-channel negotiations with North Korea.”
“Understood. After finishing the U.S. visit, I will push for a plan to enter North Korea via China.”
The National Security Advisor packed his bags and departed for Washington. Upon being guided to the White House conference room, the Advisor pulled out the letter he had brought for Secretary of Defense Mattis.
“What is this?”
“It is a personal letter from the President of South Korea. It contains the message that South Korea wishes to halt direct attacks on North Korea and deal with them by controlling risk factors as we do now.”
Secretary of Defense Mattis placed the letter on the table. “I have also received the CIA’s intelligence analysis report. I agree with your opinion, Advisor, but the problem is the President. I am worried that if a long-range missile alert sounds on the U.S. mainland, the President might propose going to war. The letter is not what’s important; we need a narrative that can persuade a President who decides things on his own whim.”
Faced with Mattis’s concern, the Advisor began explaining the scenario he had prepared from Korea. “As you know, Kim Jong-un recently executed his number two, Jang Song-thaek, and has seized all core power. He is launching nuclear tests and ICBMs to divert internal dissatisfaction outward. I believe that if the U.S. steps in, Kim Jong-un will also show interest….”
“What do you mean by the U.S. stepping in?”
“It means pushing for U.S.-North Korea talks. First, we create the environment through an inter-Korean summit, and finally, the leaders of North Korea and the U.S. meet. Fortunately, the PyeongChang Olympics are being held next year, so we can create a mood of inter-Korean reconciliation; why don't we take advantage of this opportunity?”
“Could you explain that in more detail?”
The Advisor detailed the scenario for persuading North Korea and presented a story that the U.S. President would like. After a moment of contemplation, Mattis replied, “…Good. This should be enough to persuade the President. This time, we will conduct a counter-fire exercise at the same distance Kim Jong-un observed the ICBM launch, and simultaneously proceed with economic sanctions against North Korea. Since it seems a bit lacking, I will add sanctions on North Korean exports, crude oil, and overseas banks in line with UN resolutions.”
“That should be sufficient.”
“Alright! Now, let’s go together to persuade our President.”
“Am I going too…?”
“Of course. I need your help to persuade the President.”
The two headed to the President’s office together, and after receiving the report, the problematic U.S. President asked the Advisor, “I have heard South Korea’s position well. But is it really possible to persuade Mr. Rocket Man?”
The Advisor sighed at the U.S. President’s question and continued his response. “Since the Korean War, the Korean Peninsula has never conducted a separate negotiation with the U.S. If the requirements of the U.S. and North Korea are agreed upon, North Korea will definitely be persuadable. North Korea has feared the U.S. in the past, and the situation is the same now. I believe that if the U.S. and North Korea meet, the North Korean nuclear issue can definitely be resolved.”
“The U.S. requirement is the complete denuclearization of North Korea, but what do you think North Korea’s requirements will be?”
“I believe they will demand an end to the war and a peace treaty with the U.S.”
“How long has it been since the Korean War ended, and are you still at war?”
The Advisor endured the U.S. President’s ignorance of the Korean Peninsula and replied, “South and North Korea have been in a state of truce since the Korean War and have not yet declared an end to the war.”
“Whatever, that’s fine. For now, let’s keep the sanctions on North Korea while opening the door to dialogue. Tell the President of South Korea… that a summit without results is unnecessary.”
At the U.S. President’s agreement, the Advisor sighed. “I plan to visit North Korea immediately after my U.S. visit. I intend to convey the President’s will to North Korea and South Korea.”
“Good. I hope you create some topics for me to post on Twitter. Bring me the results I want as quickly as possible.”
The Advisor left the office with Secretary of Defense Mattis at the U.S. President’s dismissal, and the Secretary of Defense also sighed deeply. “Since we’ve persuaded the troublesome President, let’s move to the next step. Since you said you are going straight to North Korea, I will order a missile launch test as agreed with the U.S. Forces in Korea. ATACMS (tactical surface-to-surface missiles) should be enough, right?”
“Yes. I think launching them into the East Sea will suffice. I will notify South Korea, and while proceeding with sanctions, I will prepare for dialogue with North Korea.”
“I hope things work out well when we meet next time. Take care.”
As soon as the Advisor left the White House, he called Korea to report the results of the meeting with the U.S. President and headed to China for negotiations with North Korea.