The Pieces Begin to Move (3)
In the end, Han Fu surrendered to Yuan Shao, just as he had in the original history. Yuan Shao brought Han Fu under her command and swallowed Jizhou whole.
Gongsun Zan was suddenly reduced to a dog that had chased a chicken and come away with nothing, but he had evidently exchanged some manner of secret letters with Yuan Shao, for he obediently pulled his army back and returned to You Province.
"See? Didn't I tell you it would turn out exactly this way?"
At the news, Sima Yi stood beside me wearing a triumphant expression.
I broke into a wry smile at the sight of her and nodded.
"Impressive."
"If there's anything else you're curious about, feel free to ask."
"Really? Then..."
I took a moment to pick my words, then put a single question to her.
"What do you think will happen between Gongsun Zan and Yuan Shao from here on?"
At my question, Sima Yi answered at once, as though the matter didn't even merit a moment's thought.
"War."
"That's all?"
"Yes. Nothing but war."
Verdict delivered, Sima Yi pressed straight on.
"Unless he intends to spend the rest of his life cooped up in You Province, he'll have to push south eventually — and from You Province there are only two directions he can go, aren't there?"
"Bing Province and Jizhou."
"Exactly."
Sima Yi looked at me with those violet eyes.
"And there's really no reason to march on Bing Province. The White Horse Volunteers Gongsun Zan is so proud of would be useless there."
Cavalry struggles to bring its full strength to bear when the ground is strewn with obstacles. Bing Province was mountains from end to end — nature's own barricades against a cavalry charge in absurd abundance — and even the few roads that did exist were rough and treacherous. For Gongsun Zan, whose main force was cavalry, it was a place he had no desire to enter.
Worse still, the Black Mountain Bandits were posted throughout those very ranges. Forged by grueling training into masters of ambush, they wielded absolute power in the mountains of Bing Province, whose every trail they knew by heart.
If the troops Gongsun Zan currently commanded could punch through all of that and take the province, it would be nothing short of Han Xin reborn. I wasn't joking — I'd give the man a genuine round of applause.
"And even if he did take Bing Province, there'd be no profit in it. So why would he bother targeting it at all?"
"He wouldn't."
What, exactly, would Gongsun Zan stand to gain from conquering Bing Province? Nothing. True, the region was slowly becoming more livable, but its economy still lagged well behind its neighbors. And considering Gongsun Zan's brand of governance — the kind that starved his own subjects to death — unless some brilliant civil administrator appeared, the odds were good he'd leave Bing Province worse off than if he'd never touched it.
If I scraped the barrel for a benefit, it would be the elite soldiers tempered by years of fighting the frontier tribes — and our faction had already made off with every last one of those.
Even if Gongsun Zan did seize Bing Province, his front lines would only stretch longer and the number of tribes he'd have to face would only multiply; meaningful gains would be hard to come by.
...Then again, knowing what a brute he is, would he actually be delighted that there are more tribes whose skulls he gets to crack? It was a little unnerving that I couldn't flatly rule it out.
"Set Bing Province aside, and the only target left is Jizhou — and Jizhou belongs to Yuan Shao now, doesn't it?"
"It does."
"Gongsun Zan withdrew quietly for now, but sooner or later he's bound to collide with Yuan Shao."
Every time I reacted with admiration, Sima Yi's face lit up with confidence.
This is genuinely adorable.
Hoping to draw out more of it, I tossed her another question.
"If Yuan Shao and Gongsun Zan come to blows, who do you think wins?"
"Hmm... that one's a bit tricky..."
Apparently this was a difficult question, because Sima Yi sank into thought.
After staring at nothing in particular for a good while, she opened her mouth.
"If they set out to destroy each other outright, it'll take them years."
"Why?"
"Because both sides have deep reserves to draw on. If either one resists desperately, the war can't help but drag on."
Sima Yi's prediction was dead-on. In the original history, even after seizing the upper hand over Gongsun Zan, Yuan Shao had needed long years to snuff out his faction completely.
And all the while, Cao Cao had grown by leaps and bounds.
"If Yuan Shao can just find a way to counter Gongsun Zan's cavalry, she wins."
"And if she can't?"
"Then Yuan Shao loses."
Sima Yi said it evenly, her face perfectly composed.
"It comes down to whether she has a commander versed in anti-cavalry tactics, I'd say."
Her words stirred a sudden curiosity in me, and I spoke up.
"Do you know, Sima Yi?"
"Know what, exactly?"
"Anti-cavalry tactics."
At my question, Sima Yi narrowed her eyes a fraction.
It was the look of someone being asked why she'd bother confirming the obvious.
"Of course I know."
Apparently she'd taken it as me testing her, because the words came out sharp and clipped.
Seeing that reaction, I made a point of praising her.
"As expected of you. Truly impressive."
"...I am, aren't I?"
One little bit of flattery, and the sulky glint in Sima Yi's eyes gave way to that triumphant glow all over again.
I think I'm getting the hang of handling her.
They say she's a child second only to a tiger — so why does a cat keep coming to mind? Maybe it's because, in animal terms, she's still a cub? Well, even the tiger that people of old feared above all beasts is impossibly cute as a cub.
"General-in-Chief."
Just as I was watching the now-cheerful Sima Yi with a fond smile, an official came looking for me.
"What is it?"
"The envoy dispatched to the Governor of Yanzhou has returned."
"Understood."
So Liu Bei, whom I'd sent to Cao Cao, had finished her errand and come back. Had Cao Cao actually sent a reply?
I rose from my seat and started for the door — and Sima Yi trotted along at my heels, very much like a duckling trailing its mother.
...
"...What?"
Apparently she'd noticed me staring, because Sima Yi hurriedly spoke up.
"You told me to stay by your side and watch how state affairs are run, didn't you?"
"I did."
"Then there's nothing wrong with it, is there?"
"...No, there isn't."
I nodded. She seemed anxious at the prospect of being left alone in a strange place.
Even the great Sima Yi was still just a child, after all.
Sima Lang, who had come to Luoyang together with her, kept a stern face and a careful distance from her little sister — yet every time she did, she would glance my way with the faintest smile, so it seemed deliberate. The sisters did grow closer thanks to it, but was there really any need to go that far with a child?
Still, it was a relief that they seemed to keep each other company once the day's work was done. If the only family she had in Luoyang held her at arm's length during working hours, who knew what Sima Yi might have done.
And so she naturally hovered around me — the one person she could comfortably call close.
To drop a child who had never once known the social grind smack into the middle of a cutthroat political arena...
...
Fine. Credit where credit is due.
This one was on me. I hadn't thought it through.
I stopped walking and turned to look at Sima Yi.
"How has life in Luoyang been treating you lately?"
"...It's been fine."
"You can be honest with me."
I crouched down to meet her at eye level. It was hardly the dignity befitting the General-in-Chief, but I had never been the sort to fuss over such things.
The moment our eyes met, a pair of amethyst-bright eyes stared straight back into mine.
"If it ever gets to be too much, you can tell me. If you want, I'll send you back home."
"...I came here because I agreed to my father's proposal, you know?"
Well, fair enough.
Though I hadn't watched her for long, Sima Yi was not a girl who would buckle under coercion. ...Then again, in the original history she did come out to serve the moment imprisonment was threatened, so perhaps she would, after all.
I had another reason for raising the subject, though.
"People's minds can change at any time."
...
"So... if it gets hard, just tell me right away."
With that, I straightened up again.
"You really are a good person."
Sima Yi heaved a long, deep sigh.
"I'll take the compliment."
"It wasn't a compliment."
When I accepted it with a laugh anyway, Sima Yi fixed me with a vaguely disgruntled stare.
...Did I do something wrong?
While I stood there bewildered, Sima Yi, who had settled in beside me, opened her mouth.
"What are you doing? The envoy's back, isn't she? We need to get going."
"Ah — right..."
Bemused, I nodded and set off again.
For all her youth, her ability to read the political board was exceptional — if Cao Cao had sent a reply, I could ask for her counsel first.
That had always been Jia Xu's role, but lately I'd taken to asking Sima Yi first and then Jia Xu, weighing the two answers against each other.
It was surprisingly fun.
Cao Cao had swallowed Yanzhou whole, and hot on her heels, Yuan Shao had swallowed Jizhou.
The wolves who had been crouching in wait to fatten themselves must have jolted upright at the news.
"What — you can seize an entire province that fast?"
"Then we can't afford to fall behind either!"
They would start moving with thoughts like those. Chief among the players in the battle of wits about to unfold would be Gongsun Zan — and Yuan Shu, who would begin reaching into Ye Province with Sun Jian out in front.
In the original history, the contest between Yuan Shao and Gongsun Zan dragged on as a long standoff before ending in a decision victory for Yuan Shao, while the contest between Cao Cao and Yuan Shu ended in Cao Cao's triumph, with Yuan Shu crushed in battle, abandoning his stronghold, and fleeing toward the outskirts of Gangdong.
Countless minor powers would flicker into being and vanish in the process, but that was no concern of mine.
In this breathlessly shifting landscape, what exactly should our faction do?
Do? Ha.
We'd bide our time, then quietly tip the scales for Cao Cao and Yuan Shao. Conferring official court posts on them, stepping in at just the right instant to mediate their wars — they were talents who would manage the rest splendidly, so long as I laid the stage for them.
...You two had better not stab me in the back someday, you hear?