Discussing the Northern Expedition
"Military Advisor Pang — once you leave for Chengdu, when will we ever see you again?"
"Ah, Shiyuan," Xu Shu said. "We've barely managed to catch each other's faces as it is, and now you're off on another long road."
"Yuanzhi, General Seyeong — it's a pity, I won't deny it. But His Lordship seems to be hatching something important. We'll meet again when the time is right."
"Yes. Give Kongming my regards when you see him."
Xu Shu and I were spending what little time we had left with Pang Tong, who would soon depart for Chengdu.
Pang Tong had been handling affairs in Xiangyang and Fancheng, while Xu Shu and I managed Jiangling and the southern reaches of Jingzhou — so the three of us rarely crossed paths. But not long ago, Liu Bei had issued an order summoning Pang Tong to Chengdu, and before we parted ways, the three of us had gathered to share a few honest words.
"If His Lordship is calling you all the way to Chengdu, it must be something truly significant."
At my question, Pang Tong paused, turning something over in his mind before he answered.
"Yizhou's internal administration is already in the hands of Kongming, along with Liu Ba, Zhang Wan, Dong Yun, and the rest. So it won't be a domestic matter. Something outward-facing, then."
"Outward-facing… meaning…"
"What you're thinking is almost certainly right."
"The Northern Expedition, then?"
"Yes. The Northern Expedition."
The Northern Expedition.
Only two words — yet they carried weight enough to stir something deep in my chest. Not only for me, but for Pang Tong and Xu Shu sitting here, for Liu Bei and his sworn brothers, for Zhuge Liang himself — those two words had long been carved into all our hearts.
"Indeed. If even you must go in person, Shiyuan, it can only be the Northern Expedition."
Xu Shu nodded in agreement.
When would the Northern Expedition begin? Even after Pang Tong reached Chengdu, there would be preparations of every kind — so not immediately. Perhaps next year? If he went, he would at least serve as chief of staff. He might even take overall command.
"If the expedition launches, the army will almost certainly push north from Hanzhong toward the Qishan region."
"Yes. Starting there, seizing Tianshui Commandery and then Yong and Liang Provinces — that would be the natural order."
"Precisely. The finer points of the campaign will be debated further in Chengdu. And once the Northern Expedition begins, Jingzhou — where the two of you are stationed — will move as well."
"We're already accounting for that."
"Of course. We'll keep the soldiers drilled and the supplies stockpiled here in the meantime."
This was the first time the three of us had seriously discussed the Northern Expedition together, yet our arguments locked into place as if we had already spoken of it a dozen times. That was how thoroughly each of us had drawn the same campaign in our minds.
No grand strategy had been issued yet, but if the main expeditionary force advanced north from Hanzhong, the Jingzhou army under Xu Shu and me would rise in concert. Coordination with Liu Feng at Xiangyong was also possible.
"Our Jingzhou forces will likely be tasked with pinning the enemy down toward Xinye and Wan, dispersing their strength."
"Yes — and since we must also guard against Sun Quan to the east, we won't be able to march with a large army."
"Even so, a show of force from the Nanyang direction alone would be of great help."
Nanyang lay north of Xiangyang; its principal city was Wan. It was also a critical junction bordering vital regions such as Xuchang, Luoyang, and Hongnong. A mountain range stood between Nanyang and Luoyang, but if we swallowed Nanyang, Wei would have every reason to grow tense. Even pressure alone from Jingzhou toward Nanyang would force Wei to divide its attention. They would be unable to commit their full strength to the main army advancing into Yong and Liang Provinces — they would have to mind Nanyang's defenses as well. In other words, we could split their power. And if Wei chose to prioritize Yong and Liang, we in Jingzhou could seize the opening and push north ourselves.
Our victory in the Jingzhou campaign had given us far more means to conduct a Northern Expedition than history originally allowed. Left to the original course of events, Zhuge Liang would have struggled alone from the Hanzhong side under crushing hardship.
"At present, Cao Zhi and his close advisor Yang Xiu are said to be in Yecheng. When I went there as an envoy, I also heard rumors that the relationship between Cao Pi and Cao Zhi is far from cordial."
"You've mentioned that before, General Seyeong. I heard Cao Zhi was eliminated in the succession struggle — do you think he might be plotting something?"
"I can't say for certain, but it could well affect our Northern Expedition. We should keep sending agents to Yecheng to watch their movements."
In the original history, Cao Zhi had competed with Cao Pi for the succession but never staged an outright rebellion. Here, though, Yang Xiu was still alive — and that made him a wild card.
Our discussion of the Northern Expedition had by now drifted into geography itself. Better to tell Pang Tong everything I knew while I had the chance.
"Military Advisor Pang — if you march into Yong and Liang Provinces, this place will be critically important."
I pointed to a spot on the map.
"Jieting."
"Hmm. Jieting…"
The single greatest cause of Zhuge Liang's failure in the first Northern Expedition — the defeat at Jieting. That had to be prevented in advance.
In the original history, Ma Su had defied Zhuge Liang's orders at Jieting and climbed onto the mountain. The result? Zhang He cut off his water supply, crushed him utterly, and the entire first expedition collapsed into nothing. Fortunately — if one could call it that — Ma Su was scheduled to remain here in Jingzhou, so there would be no opportunity for him to exercise his "talents" at Jieting.
"Yes. To occupy Yong and Liang, sealing off Jieting is more important than anything else. If we seize it first, we can block Wei's reinforcements coming from Chang'an. In that window, the main army will have the chance to take Tianshui Commandery and the enemy's key cities one by one."
"Hmm. You've put more thought into this than I expected, General Seyeong."
"Indeed, General Jin. When did you prepare all this? I've done my share of planning, but never in this much detail."
"Haha. It's my specialty, isn't it? Turning things over in my head."
I let their brief admiration wash over me, then pressed on.
"We must occupy Jieting first and prevent the enemy from forcing the road through. Securing the water supply and the supply lines is equally vital. And behind Jieting lies Lueyang Fortress — the gateway that connects to Jieting itself."
"I see. So Lueyang would also be a key stronghold."
In the original history, Guo Huai had circled around with his army and crushed Gao Xiang at Lueyang.
"Yes. Lueyang is the link between the main Northern Expedition force and Jieting. If any of the enemy has a clever head on his shoulders, he may try to bypass Jieting and seize Lueyang instead."
"Understood. I'll make certain preparations when we get there."
"I'll leave it in your hands, Military Advisor. And there's one more place — Chencang. The terrain is so rugged that a small force can hold off a much larger one…"
While I was at it, I told them about Chencang as well. Historically, Hao Zhao had mounted an ironclad defense there during the second Northern Expedition — but with history already rewritten, who could say how things would unfold now?
Once we had finished with Yong, Liang, and the Northern Expedition, the conversation drifted in a slightly different direction.
"I'll treat everything you've told me as essential reference for the campaign, General Seyeong. But there's one more problem we absolutely must address — and this one falls to Jingzhou."
"A third party's interference."
"Yes. Sun Quan of Eastern Wu."
Sun Quan.
Since the Jingzhou campaign, we had maintained a nominal peace — an alliance of sorts. Even in the original history, after Guan Yu's death and the bloodbath at Yiling, the two states had somehow managed to keep the alliance alive. There was no law forbidding us from allying now. Shu was stronger than it had been in the original timeline, but still far weaker than Wei — and the same was true of Wu. Even combined, Shu and Wu would not amount to half of Wei's strength. Sun Quan knew that, which was why he was making moves to preserve the alliance.
But there was equally no law saying he wouldn't strike Jingzhou the moment we left for the Northern Expedition. Both Pang Tong and Xu Shu were worried about exactly that.
"If only Wu would move with us when Shu launches the Northern Expedition… If they opened a joint front at the right moment, it would be an enormous help."
"That's why I suggested you meet with Lord Deng Zhi before you leave."
"Ah yes — Deng Zhi handles diplomacy with Wu. Meeting him would be useful. He's on his way back now, you said?"
"Yes. Word has been sent; he should arrive shortly."
No sooner had the words left our mouths than a servant outside announced the news.
"Lord Deng Zhi has arrived."
"Good. Show him in."
A moment later, Deng Zhi entered, and the three of us exchanged greetings.
"Welcome, Lord Deng Zhi. You've gone to great trouble traveling to Eastern Wu. You must be exhausted — thank you for coming."
"You are too kind. And I see the General of the Left is as well as ever."
Come to think of it, all three of them address me differently. Pang Tong called me General Seyeong with easy familiarity; Xu Shu used the more formal General Jin; and Deng Zhi stuck to my official title — the textbook approach.
In any case, Deng Zhi had been serving as an envoy to Eastern Wu and was now passing through Jingzhou on his return. Before Pang Tong left, I had wanted to see Deng Zhi's face once more and hear about Wu's situation, so I had arranged for him to join us.
"This was your second trip to Wu, wasn't it?"
"Yes, that's right."
He had all but become our dedicated diplomat to Wu, shuttling actively between the two states.
"Bring out the food."
A meal had been prepared for Deng Zhi's arrival, and the four of us — Deng Zhi now included — ate together, filling in the conversations we had missed. Before long, the topic turned to Wu.
"So how is diplomacy with Wu progressing?"
"Well… it seems to be going smoothly enough for now. There may be a few more trips back and forth, but still."
Since the Jingzhou campaign, the once-bitter relationship between Shu and Wu had shown signs of gradual recovery — yet the worry remained real. No one could say when they might drive a blade into our flank again. Few diplomats matched Deng Zhi's ability — Fei Yi and Zong Yu came to mind as the only others in his class — so I trusted things would go well. But one never truly knew.
According to him, Wu showed no immediate signs of breaking the alliance.
"Lord Deng Zhi — while you were in Wu, did you notice anything strange? Any unsavory movements?"
At my question, Deng Zhi thought for a moment before speaking.
"Now that you mention it, I did hear one rather odd rumor while I was there."
"What was it?"
"Word has it that Sun Quan personally smashed a treasure called the Coral Tree."
"The Coral Tree?"
My eyes snapped open at the sudden, unexpected name.
That wretched thing — why is it turning up here of all places? My brow furrowed of its own accord.