Preparing for What Comes Next

Guan Yu made good on his word.

Just as he had told me at dawn, he took the vanguard himself, and in the end he went over the walls of Fan. The old wound in his arm must have been aching to the marrow, and still it was an astonishing feat of will.

Cao Ren, of course, had his excuses. After Xu Huang, the routs of Xu Shang and Lü Jian had ground away the last of his soldiers' hope that relief would come. Guan Yu, with nothing at his back to fear, had been free to throw everything into the taking of Fan, and the garrison had long since passed the breaking point of exhaustion. Once Cao Ren understood that the city could be held no longer, he attempted one final, desperate breakout.

In the original history it was Guan Yu who was taken while attempting a flight that reckless. This time he stood with the besiegers. The irony was almost too neat. And the end Cao Ren met was no different from the one that had once been Guan Yu's. Call Cao Ren a general bestowed by Heaven if you like—superhuman in his valor, able to hold three armies as one in his grip—and still, Guan Yu was Guan Yu. He met him head-on, the man tearing the encirclement apart at the van with a terrifying momentum, and he took him. Cao Ren had not been in any condition to fight at his full strength, and yet it was a feat to recall the Guan Yu of old, who had ridden alone through an enemy host and cut off Yan Liang's head.

"Second Uncle. It's Zhang Lan."

I had shifted my camp from Yancheng to Fan, and the moment word came that Cao Ren and Man Chong had been taken, I went straight to find him. Guan Yu had claimed the official residence. He left the restoration of the flooded city, and the handling of the prisoners, to his subordinates, and he rested.

I entered with his leave, and there he was: upper robe loosened, thick needles driven in a dense line ‍‍‌‌⁠​​⁠‌​​‍​​‍​‌​⁠‍‌‍⁠⁠‌⁠‌‍‌‍‌‌‌‍⁠​‌​‌​‌‍‌‌‌⁠‍​​‌‍⁠‌‌⁠⁠from his left shoulder down the upper arm. They were stouter than any modern acupuncture needle, and blood ran where they sat, but Guan Yu paid it no mind. With his right hand he was writing out a memorial as if nothing at all were the matter.

"You've come."

"Your arm..."

"It is nothing. To cross blades with a man like Cao Zixiao and come away with only this is a gain, if anything. You came to discuss what follows, did you not?"

He slid the memorial aside and set down the brush.

I studied his color. It did not look like a fresh wound. The old injury had simply risen again. They say it aches worst on rainy days, and he had fought Cao Ren on top of that; he could hardly be whole. His years were drawing on toward sixty. Men like Guan Yu, like my father, flaunted a hale old vigor as if Heaven itself had blessed them, but even they could not turn their backs on time entirely. The body's prime was already past. Flesh overworked in youth would come, sooner or later, to demand its late payment.

"You need not look at me so. Lian Po, older than I am now, ate a dou of rice and ten catties of meat. And the Wave-Quelling General? Did he not meet his true prime only after sixty? I am still sound."

"...I was disrespectful. Forgive me."

"Enough of that. Well. What did you come to say?"

He drew the needles out one by one, wiped away the blood, and drew his robe back on. This was no formal council, so I chose my words with care.

"The army's course ought to be settled in a proper council, with the generals. But there is a matter I must discuss with you beforehand, Second Uncle, and so I came."

"It concerns Sun Quan."

"It is as you say."

"This will take a while. Sit."

I took the seat he offered, and he cleared the memorial away and spread a map in its place: northern Jingzhou, from Jiangling all the way to Xiangfan.

"You too received the tally and the axe from His Majesty the King of Hanzhong. You command an army of your own. This is not a council, so there is no need to guard your tongue. Speak without reserve."

As he had at dawn, he was treating me not as a mere niece, nor as a subordinate, but as a general with whom great affairs could be discussed. He and my father were so different in temperament that one might fairly have called them opposites, and yet they shared one thing. Toward those they had acknowledged, they showed a respect without limit.

Guan Yu's standard, though, sat higher than Father's. Father loved the gentleman and slighted the petty man; keep the bearing of a scholar-official, and he would generally give you his regard. Guan Yu, who held the scholar-official class in contempt to begin with, applied conditions far more exacting. But those who met them received his sincerity, and his trust, without stint. Liu Bei had been such a man. Zhuge Liang had been such a man. At first Guan Yu had envied Zhuge Liang, but once he had confirmed the man's ability and his character, he trusted him, and he rejoiced at his praise.

So I had cleared that bar, had I? Ambition welled up in me. The trust carried in his gaze set a flutter in my chest. The hardship had been worth it. Somewhere along the way I had melted into their ranks and taken my place as one of them.

I fought not to let the surge of feeling show, and then, full of a drive newly charged, I spoke with spirit.

"Our army now has two roads. Do we attack Cao Cao, or do we stand on the defensive?"

The latter was the orthodox play. The former was the upset.

The Cao Cao coming now was of another order entirely from Xu Huang, Xu Shang, and Lü Jian, the men I had already broken. This was Wei's last and finest elite, beyond comparison in quality and in numbers alike. Hanzhong had been an expedition whose roster resembled an all-star match, fought far from home. This time he was close to his own base, and supply would come easily. Xu Huang and Tian Yu, joining from Wancheng; Zhang Liao, drawn off from Hefei; Xiahou Dun, foremost among the kinsman generals; Huan Jie, whom Cao Pi had meant to set as guardian to the crown prince—and others besides.

On our side stood Guan Yu, the very face of Ji Han, and myself, grown now into a proper pillar of the command. With us were the Nanling Eight Wings, packed tight with the celebrated names of the middle and later years who followed me. It was hardly a matchup we could not even take the field for. But the inferiority in numbers, the exhaustion piled upon exhaustion, the shortage of supplies—there was no room in any of that to overcome what we lacked. To attack from our side would mean accepting a tremendous risk, and so Guan Yu's response leaned, as I had expected, toward the latter.

"What would you say to a truce bought through the prisoners, and a counterstroke against Sun Quan? This may be the moment to take Jingzhou entire into our arms."

An accord with Wei, and then a counterattack on Sun Quan, who had walked of his own feet into the trap called Jingzhou? That was not a bad thought either. But if we did it, we would be isolated completely. Sun Quan, stripped of all Jingzhou, would join hands not with us but with Wei, and the war would have two fronts.

Ji Han was far stronger now than in the original history. Even so, could we truly bear both Wei and Wu at once? Difficult. I could not declare it impossible. But Wei, however shaken, was still mightier than we were, and Wu, even reduced to the weakest of the three, still ‍‍‌‌⁠​​⁠‌​​‍​​‍​‌​⁠‍‌‍⁠⁠‌⁠‌‍‌‍‌‌‌‍⁠​‌​‌​‌‍‌‌‌⁠‍​​‌‍⁠‌‌⁠⁠had strength left in reserve. Resist their alliance long enough, and in the end we would lose the very engine of our growth.

After Liu Bei had so thoroughly burned the foundations of his state at Yiling, why had Wu chosen a renewed alliance rather than swallow Shu Han whole? In part, surely, because to lunge for their utter destruction would have risked the backblast of a joint blow with Wei.

At my words Guan Yu showed his displeasure, and yet he looked convinced.

"Then in the end it will be a standoff at Fan."

Offense and defense had changed places. This time we would hold Xiangfan, and Cao Cao would be the one to attack it. But there was a great difference. We had prisoners.

"With Cao Ren in our hands, Cao Cao will not dare strike first. He will surround us and apply pressure, nothing more. He will make Sun Quan's betrayal known to us, and try to stand above us in the bargaining."

"Hm. The coordination with Sun Quan ought to be a compact made in the dark."

"They clasped hands only for a little while, and only for what each could gain. There is no righteousness between them, and no trust. If they can sell the other party for a greater profit, they will do it gladly."

And so it had been, in fact. Cao Cao had disregarded Sun Quan's request that their attack be kept secret, and spread the news outright. Contrary to the expectation that Guan Yu would fall back at once, he had held—half regret, with Xiangfan on the verge of falling, and half hope that an ally such as Sun Quan would never do such a thing. That refusal to withdraw became the worst misstep of his life. But the Guan Yu of now had already taken Xiangfan and captured Cao Ren besides. His choices had widened, and he could hear of Sun Quan's betrayal, and of betrayal within our own ranks, and ‍‍‌‌⁠​​⁠‌​​‍​​‍​‌​⁠‍‌‍⁠⁠‌⁠‌‍‌‍‌‌‌‍⁠​‌​‌​‌‍‌‌‌⁠‍​​‌‍⁠‌‌⁠⁠remain unshaken. Pang Tong and I had foreseen that betrayal and laid our countermeasures, and we had said as much with confidence. Trusting us, Guan Yu showed that he could take the measure of the situation with a clear eye.

"Nothing more than Wu and Yue in the same boat, then."

"Yes. What they want is for us to retreat first, the moment we learn of Sun Quan's betrayal. If they come offering talks as though they were doing us a kindness—we will not pursue you, so send Cao Ren and Man Chong and the rest back—then in the end they lose almost nothing."

"They will be hoping we and Sun Quan drag each other down together."

"Just so."

Guan Yu nodded as if he understood, and said, "I see why you spoke of attacking. The right to strike first lies with us."

Cao Cao could not attack us. The prisoners. Xiangfan. Our preparations against Sun Quan's betrayal. All of it stood against him. Rather than attack and pick a scab into a wound, it was far more to his advantage to hold the standoff and keep up the pressure. If we went the way of mutual ruin and put every prisoner to death, that was the outcome Cao Cao wanted least of all. The card he had been counting on—Sun Quan's betrayal—had come to nothing, and it was no exaggeration to say that, for Wei, the choice of attack had vanished.

And what of us? We held the fortress of Xiangfan, and our navy commanded the Han River itself. Beyond Xiangfan we had already laid camps at the vital points: Yancheng, Weidu, Sizhong. We could strike and withdraw as we pleased.

"Even so, an attack is dangerous. If one of our generals were taken alive, we might lose the advantage we hold."

"I think the same. There is no need to do them the favor of fighting first. I only wanted you to know that the means exists."

"I take the heart of what you mean. The advantage is ours regardless, so rather than grow anxious, we induce Cao Cao to be the one who asks for talks. Step out as though we mean to attack, and make him hasty. That is the thought, is it not?"

A touch, and he had it. We had already foreseen Sun Quan's betrayal and laid our plans against it. If we advanced as if to say we could kill every prisoner we held and fight them anyway, then Cao Cao could not help but grow urgent. I answered with a small smile.

"Yes. However well we have prepared, a war on two fronts is best settled as quickly as it can be, so that we may concentrate on one side."

We were short of troops as it was, and we would have to fight at a disadvantage in numbers on both fronts. I trusted Pang Tong to improvise if the plan went awry, but the enemy was no light matter either. Lü Meng, Lu Xun, Zhu Ran—the three great commanders who had led Wu through its middle years, all of them committed at once. Pang Tong alone would be hard-pressed, no matter how I turned it.

"Good. I will think on how we draw Cao Cao to the table. And let us lay the matter formally before the council, when it meets."

A few days later, the council was held.

It was a grand assembly: every officer who followed me, and all of Guan Yu's lieutenants. Guan Ping, Liao Hua, Zhao Lei, Xi Zhen, Wang Fu. They looked uncommon enough that one could see why Guan Yu had made them his lieutenants. A name or two might have earned a wince, but in loyalty they yielded to no one. They were Guan Yu's faithful men through and through.

The council ran as Guan Yu and I had already arranged between us. When it ended and we were about to disperse, Guan Ping stopped me.

"There is much I would like to say, but we are at war, so I will ask only one thing, and keep it short."

My station within the command had risen above his, and yet to him I still seemed the young younger sibling of the past. Before my own officers could step forward and show their displeasure, I answered at once.

"Please, speak, Brother Tan Zhi."

I called him by his style, not by his office, and so covered for him: this was a private matter, not the army's business. Guan Ping seemed to realize his own slip. The look he sent me was apology and gratitude mixed.

"Ahem. Can Jingzhou truly hold? After the Han flooded we pulled in even the soldiers who had remained there. General Pang De has troops under his command, yes, but Sun Quan will not be moving with a light heart."

The anxiety was fair enough. Scrape together every man of ours still scattered through Jingzhou, region by region, and we would not clear twenty thousand. Against a Sun Quan coming with tens of thousands, it was hopelessly short. Stranger still was that Guan Yu had let the matter pass for no better reason than his trust in me and in Pang Tong. The question was probably not Guan Ping's worry alone. It was likely the common mind of most of those present, and Guan Ping, who was close to me, had taken it upon himself to ask. There was only one answer I could give him.

"Trust us, and wait. Those who hold Jingzhou will show you the result."