The Defense of Valharat Western Fortress (4)
I sorted through my thoughts.
If I assumed that the very news of a fifty-thousand-strong vanguard marching out was itself a bait, then the reason they had chosen that particular number was not hard to guess.
No matter that this was a fortress rather than a castle, the defending side still held a decisive advantage over the attackers in any engagement. It was not that we could not hold them off—but neither could we overwhelm them. The result would simply be a grinding war of attrition on both sides.
That was surely why Zinor had insisted that a prolonged campaign would leave our army the loser.
For the Brans Army to seize a clear advantage, they ought to have brought at least seventy or eighty thousand men. A force of that size—another twenty or thirty thousand—was something the Brans Army could squeeze out from here and there without much trouble. Their population was large, their borders extensive, and the number of troops already deployed was considerable.
Had they done so, even Epinel would have abandoned the idea of holding the fortress and withdrawn to the castle. Combining the garrison there and settling in for a siege would have been the far more rational choice.
And right there, something like an answer began to take shape.
They settled on fifty thousand because that was the number that would keep Epinel from pulling back…
If the goal was to pin our forces—myself included—to this fortress and leave us with the feeling that we could still make a fight of it, then fifty-three thousand was an exquisitely calculated figure. The fact that Epinel had taken the bait was proof enough.
Wait.
If that vanguard was bait meant for us, then their true objective was not this fortress. There would be no reason to send a lure toward a place that was not their real target.
So what, then, were they after?
Once again I returned to the two predictions that were unconditionally correct.
Withdrawing our troops was a measure that came somewhat close to the right answer.
Winning the battle outright depended on the will of heaven—that is, on how our army chose to act.
If our army chose something, we would win. And pulling troops out of the fortress to fall back on Valharat Castle was an action that came somewhat close to the correct one.
Does that mean that, including the withdrawal of troops… our army has to do something in order to win?
But if so, the phrasing was a little strange, wasn't it?
We have to do something to win? We lose if we fail to do something?
A situation where we lose if we fail to act… a situation where we win only if we do something…
Once more, I began assembling every possible course of action the Brans Army might take. The more impossible options I stripped away, the more clearly the truth would shine through.
What would the Brans Army have done? What course of action of theirs had produced these two predictions?
Once more…
"…Hah."
Having heard Parfalle's explanation, Chel could only stare in stunned silence.
"What do you think?"
"What do I think… It's almost too bold… I wonder if it's even possible…"
"It is possible. No—rather, this is the only way. If we mean to land a decisive blow on the Acius Army in short order, without waiting for those thirty thousand reinforcements."
Parfalle's tone was utterly serious.
"Of course, this method can be used only once—right now, in this single moment. I understand that the risk of failure is by no means small. But I believe this is precisely the time to make a decision."
"Mmm…"
Chel rubbed his chin, lost in thought.
Parfalle's proposal. There was no denying it was the most unconventional—and the most efficient—option available under the present circumstances.
The problem was only one: the catastrophic losses their army would suffer if it failed.
As it was, Airen's betrayal had already transferred more than thirty thousand soldiers from the Brans Army to the Acius Army in a single stroke. If they lost the forces they had now on top of that, the damage might truly become irreversible. It would no longer be a question of whether the southern border or the northern border would be breached first.
"…It seems far too reckless to me. No matter how I look at it, the safer course is to take the fortress by conventional means, slowly and carefully. Of course Swen's ability is a concern, but as you yourself said, Strategist—if he could use that power freely, he would have invaded Lacline Castle long ago. And I have heard that Swen himself, during his time with our army, said it was not a power he could wield whenever he pleased."
"Then let us assume, as you suggest, General, that Swen cannot use his ability."
Parfalle laid her hand on the map spread across the table and began again.
"In a prolonged war we would win—but we cannot say how long it would take. The Acius Army has a great many highly capable officers. Drag the fighting out long enough and we would eventually prevail, yes—but whether the southern states and Serpina's forces in the north would simply sit idle in the meantime is another matter entirely. So long as our lord's will remains firm—to punish the Acius Army first and foremost—settling this as quickly as possible is the correct answer. And the only method that does not cost us time is the one I have just described."
"But… is there not a chance your scheme will fail, Strategist?"
"There is, of course. But I judge that probability to be extremely low."
"I would like to hear your reasoning, if you would."
Parfalle nodded.
"The current fortress commander, Epinel Rosencross, is a battle-oriented general of unbending character. She prefers open combat to relying on schemes and stratagems. She is highly likely to insist on holding the fortress. Given her considerable standing within the Acius Army, her opinion will naturally carry the day. This is information I have cross-verified from intelligence gathered while stationed along the eastern border—there is no mistake."
"So in the end…"
"Exactly. The losses we would suffer in failure would be painful—but as things stand, with no clear grasp of what Swen's ability actually is, an open battle offers us little real chance of victory either. If both paths carry risk, should we not take the one that promises the greater fruit?"
"…"
"Lord Chel. That is all I have to say. Even if you do not follow my counsel, I will assist you with all my heart."
Though Parfalle held a high position as State Tactician, the one who actually commanded in the field was General Chel. He deliberated for a long while, then at last nodded as if he had reached a decision.
"…We will—"
I emptied my mind completely.
Then I placed into it only the two facts that had emerged from the earlier prediction.
That the outcome of the battle hinged on our army's choice.
That withdrawing our forces from here was, to some degree, the correct action.
These two propositions were absolute [TRUE]. A mind of Intelligence 100 spoke only what was unconditionally correct.
In other words, both withdrawing our troops and doing something more were necessary if we were to win this battle.
I stared at the map for a long time.
The forests scattered thickly across the surrounding terrain. The narrow, straight corridor running from Lacline Castle through the fortress and on to Valharat Castle.
Slowly, studying the map, I erased the possibilities one by one.
Every scheme the Brans Army could deploy against us. Every countermeasure our army could raise in response. As I struck them all away… a single remaining possibility burned with fierce presence in the darkness.
…!
In that instant, the tangled threads of thought cluttering my mind went clean, and I felt I finally understood why a mind of Intelligence 100 had produced those predictions.
Something like a divine revelation wrapped itself tightly around me.
"…An ambush."
The word rose to my tongue before I knew it.
Yes. An ambush.
The enemy's objective was not this fortress. The vanguard sent here was bait. Their true target was the capital of the Acius Army—its only stronghold—currently stripped of troops for the campaign against the Allepel Army.
They're going to strike Valharat Castle.
The number of troops they had supposedly dispatched was likely not fifty thousand either. Spreading false information was hardly difficult. And even if the figure were accurate, the force that actually arrived at the fortress would be small. The rest could simply advance through the forests, circling around toward Valharat Castle.
Once I saw it that way, every fragmented fact that had seemed unrelated until moments ago locked into place.
That was why. That was why the mind of Intelligence 100 had said it depended on the will of heaven.
Of course—if we prepared for the ambush, we would win. If we failed to prepare for it, we would lose.
That was why the mind of Intelligence 100 had said the withdrawal was somewhat close.
If we pulled our forces from the fortress and stationed them at Valharat Castle, we could at least stop the ambush. But the Brans Army was no fool. The moment they confirmed our reinforcements, they would simply withdraw without committing to battle.
Zinor's proposal was a half-answer. It would keep our army's forces intact—but it would also leave the Brans Army unscathed. A kind of status quo.
Looking again at the phrase somewhat close, no other words could have described the situation more perfectly.
The true answer. The most efficient solution for the Acius Army, as predicted by Intelligence 100, was this: prepare for the ambush and counterattack.
Troops whose ambush had failed would fall into chaos in an instant. Cleaning up soldiers whose formation had collapsed would be as easy as eating cake.
Preserve our own forces while dealing a fatal blow to the Brans Army. That was what it meant to prepare for the ambush on Valharat Castle.
…Haa.
I let out a long breath and leaned back against the chair. Only then did I notice the cold sweat running down my entire body.
It truly felt like walking on thin ice. Extracting the shape of what was actually happening from sentences that were unconditionally true yet nearly impossible to understand demanded an exhausting amount of energy.
Even so—I had managed to find a route that looked, more or less, like the right one.
This is only half of it.
Yes. Discovering the answer was, in the end, only half the work.
This was not the Lunarien Army, where my words were almost always heeded. Even if everything I said was correct, it meant nothing if no one listened.
And this was the Acius Army—a cold organization where even a man of Zinor's caliber could be forced to swallow a bitter cup simply for lacking seniority.
Still, I have to persuade them.
A newly arrived officer like me would never move Epinel's heart. The person I needed to approach first was… Zinor, after all.
Zinor was the State Tactician. Even if Epinel had once set his counsel aside, the odds of a State Tactician persuading her were still higher than the odds of me doing so myself.
There's no time. I need to move.
I rose from my seat and set out for where Zinor was waiting.