Regular Council / Serpina's Army (2)
"Irian...?"
Jena stared at him in open surprise, but Irian paid her reaction no mind.
"If the State Strategist has no objection, I would like to add my voice in support of Lord Swen's position."
Irian's intervention was something I had never anticipated—yet once it happened, I thought I understood why he wanted to help me.
A kind of repayment, then.
Even if Jennis had ended up in prison, it was ultimately me who had saved his younger brother and kept their house from being wiped out. Without my involvement, Jennis would have been lumped in with the rebels wholesale—and Serpina, who never forgave rebellion under any circumstances, would have erased the entire family so thoroughly that they would not even have remained in the history books.
Then Serpina, seated upon the throne, tilted her chin slightly and looked down at Jena.
"Irian's boldness in stepping forward is neither here nor there. But you, Jena—you have quite the audacious streak yourself."
"..."
"Well. All of this little farce will require Swen's consent, I suppose. I trust you will agree on that much, at least."
It seemed Serpina had been about to take Jena to task for trying to box me in with one-sided conditions. Irian's interruption had simply redirected the matter toward asking my opinion instead.
The word farce alone was telling enough—and Serpina's expression right now, though it might look like a smile to the casual observer, was unmistakably the face of someone furious.
Strange rumors were already circulating about me. I could not afford to let the entire room walk away with the fresh impression that Serpina was angry because of me.
"I have no objection. I will follow Lady Jena's suggestion."
At that, Irian turned his head toward me.
"Then I take it I may speak freely?"
Well—I had no reason to refuse. I had never even imagined Irian would take my side. Explaining things myself would not have been bad either, but having someone of Irian's standing within Serpina's army speak for me could only help. And, more than anything, I was a little curious what he would say.
"Then I'll leave it to you."
Irian nodded and began.
"The State Strategist and General Cransis both raise valid points. The problem is that conquering the Asius Army would require us to expend nearly the entirety of our available forces. Excluding the capital defense garrison and the troops needed to maintain order across the continent, the total number we can field is approximately one hundred twenty-three thousand. That is nowhere near enough to take Valharat Castle, which appears to hold some ninety-eight thousand, much less Gelstrom Castle to the north with its eighty thousand, or Lacline Castle on the Hisphil border with its eighty-three thousand."
A solid argument.
I was rather pleased that it lined up almost exactly with my own thinking.
Then Cransis, who had first proposed the offensive, parted his heavy lips.
"I am not unaware of General Irian's concerns. But our army is capable of mobilizing as many as three hundred ten thousand. And given that we have not even conducted a proper conscription yet, that number could grow far larger still. It is a vast host we could never assemble if we still had to worry about the Brans border. That is precisely why I say this is our opportunity."
"That is—"
"That is exactly the problem, Lord Cransis."
This time it was I who cut in. I had been waiting for this moment. Cransis, as the original proposer of the policy, had spoken first—so naturally I, as the other proposer, now had the right to respond. Jena seemed to understand as much; she simply listened in silence.
"Of course, if we threw the full weight of our nation's power into the effort, we could topple even the Asius Army's iron fortresses. But it would demand an enormous number of troops—and an enormous amount of time. Turning freshly conscripted soldiers into elite fighters ready for the battlefield requires more than a few months. The alliance period with the Brans Army would almost certainly expire in the meantime. Given the present chaos, Brans may well remain no threat to us—but the real issue is that while we spend all that time grinding down the Asius Army, the number of ways our own forces could be put in danger is far too great."
"Conquest has always required risk. Some degree of loss must be accepted in the greater scheme of things, must it not?"
"If it were merely 'some degree of loss,' I would be saying the same thing as you, Lord Cransis. The problem is that it is not 'some degree.' Even if—"
I spread the map with my hand, pointing to the territories of the northern continent, and spoke with deliberate confidence.
"What if a rebellion broke out somewhere in these lands?"
"...!!!"
"I can think of few situations that would look like a more 'plausible opportunity' to traitors than the northern continent's garrisons standing empty because every available soldier has been sent south against the Asius Army. Would it not be the same logic by which we ourselves now regard Brans's turmoil as an opportunity—only more so?"
The counter came in a woman's voice.
"Lord Swen. The traitors were rounded up and purged only days ago. However unsettled the northern continent may be, the idea of simultaneous uprisings under these circumstances strikes me as an overblown fear. I worry we will find ourselves hobbled by something that has not even happened."
"..."
Honestly, I had no good answer to that. Rebellion was not some children's game, and the last attempt had just failed spectacularly. Who would be stupid enough to try again so soon?
In truth, I shared Jena's assessment. The reason I was arguing that "a rebellion is likely" was simply that it was Serpina's whim. She had predicted a revolt based solely on my forecast—that moving the occupation forces was not the efficient course. Our time together had not been especially long, but I had grown close enough to her that I could not dismiss her "prediction" lightly.
Serpina was an extraordinary woman. The mere fact that she had deduced my ability to that extent proved she was no ordinary person. Someone who never acted without sound logic was not the type to cling to mere intuition—so there had to be some basis she could not put into words for me.
In any case. Jena would not like it, but my liege was on my side. I could afford to push a little harder.
"No."
"...!!"
"A rebellion will occur. Even if it is not a rebellion, so long as there is even the slightest possibility of a crisis of equivalent severity, I cannot agree to mustering every available soldier and marching south."
"Do you have any concrete basis for that claim?"
Basis, was it. I felt a little bad about this, but I would have to play with words here.
"State Strategist, Lord Cransis—I would ask you both to keep in mind that this is not a matter of evidence."
Having said that, I glanced toward where Irian stood. He caught my look, nodded, and spoke.
"The reason you advocate sending the occupation forces south is, as you yourselves have said, because the present moment looks like an 'exceptionally good opportunity.' That same logic applies equally to the scoundrels plotting rebellion. In other words, our decision itself could become the very pretext for treason. If our armies leave their posts, will it not appear to them as an 'exceptionally good opportunity'? I would ask you to understand Lord Swen's position with that in mind."
Oh?
For something spun out of a single remark I had tossed out, that was a remarkably polished argument. Unlike me—who still drew less than friendly looks from most of the room—Irian had real standing. Hearing the same point from him, I could feel the mood of the assembly shift.
"However—"
"I think we have heard enough."
Just as Cransis was about to speak, Serpina cut him off.
"It would hardly be fair to allocate so much time to Swen alone, would it?"
She said it with a crooked little smile. Ending the discussion here left the advantage decidedly ambiguous—but the pressure behind that smile was absolute. No one dared challenge her.
"Then let me ask again. All who agree with Swen's position, raise your hands."
At a glance, far more hands went up than before. Irian and Irene, of course—but a considerable number of those who had originally sided with Cransis had crossed over as well. The count looked... just barely over half.
"By a narrow margin, those in favor of Swen's position are the majority."
Serpina looked at Cransis.
"Well? If you have more to say, I can arrange a one-on-one debate. Of course, the participants would be you and Swen."
Cransis glanced in my direction, then bowed his head. It was a little presumptuous of me to think so, but he had probably judged that even he—never mind Jena—would struggle to beat me in a one-on-one debate. I was a strategist; he was a general. Wielding a sword was his work. Moving the tongue was mine.
"No, my lady. That will not be necessary. I will submit to the decision of my sovereign and my colleagues."
"Very well."
Serpina rose from her seat and extended a hand once more.
"In accordance with the principle of majority rule, we hereby adopt Swen's opinion as the policy of our army."
"Yes, my lady!"
Haa...
With that, I could at least act according to the prediction. For the record, every question I had put to my ability so far had returned the same answer as always: moving the occupation forces was not efficient. Whether a rebellion actually broke out or not, this decision itself was to our army's benefit.
One thing still nagged at me—whether leaving the occupation forces where they were was truly the most efficient option. When Serpina had called for the show of hands, I had slipped in a related question. The result had been...
Almost optimal.
It was unclear whether the correct answer was that the occupation forces needed to be sent somewhere, or simply that they should not be sent against the Asius Army. Either way, betting on "almost optimal" rather than "not so" remained the profitable choice.
"That concludes the regular council. I expect each of you to give your utmost to the duties assigned to you. Once again this quarter, I ask that you devote yourselves body and soul to the glory of the Empire. Dismissed!"
With the assembly's answering shout to Serpina's command, the regular council came to a clean close.
All that remained now... was the result of the decision.