Question (3)
I opened the door, approached her, and offered my greeting with a little more care than usual.
"Swen, answering my lord's summons, I have come."
The moment she saw me bow, a distinctly satisfied smile curved her lips.
"Well come, Swen. Things are proceeding just as I said they would."
"Has another alliance proposal arrived?"
"An envoy from the Hesna Army. They wish to form an alliance with us for nine months."
The Hesna Army.
They were the nation that had taken the lead in shattering the balance of the southern continent.
Word of what had become of Elgaime Castle had yet to reach us — but it seemed their envoy had arrived a step ahead of the news.
Having already made the first move, they meant to join hands with us and seize control of the south. To keep us from becoming an inconvenient obstacle later, they needed to pin us down as well.
"And the terms?"
"They offer twenty thousand gold."
Twenty thousand gold.
Last time it had been twenty-eight thousand for twelve months; now twenty thousand for nine. Purely by the numbers the offer felt a touch disappointing, but factoring in the shorter duration, it was a condition we could accept without much trouble… or so I was thinking, when she spoke again.
"That is not all."
"Pardon?"
"Swen. Are you well-versed in treasures, by any chance?"
Treasures — she meant items, surely.
Well, given that I had poured ten thousand hours into this game, there was no item I didn't know…
"Yes. To a degree."
"Then you know of the Holy Sword Rashutar as well?"
"…What?"
The Holy Sword Rashutar.
It was the finest blade in the entire game.
Its effect was almost insultingly simple: Martial +7.
It did nothing but raise Martial Force — yet that number, a full seven points, made it the undisputed apex of all weapon-type treasures.
Wasn't it always the case that true power lay in descriptions stripped of every excess?
Sword A: Reduces the chance of falling for an enemy's stratagem by thirty percent. Increases attack power against enemy units only on snow-covered battlefields. And so on, and so forth.
And then — the Holy Sword Rashutar. Martial +7.
Set side by side like that, the difference was overwhelming. The sheer value of a sacred blade that simply, unconditionally, raised Martial Force by seven points stood out all the more.
It was an item that spawned in a random location every playthrough. In this world-line, it had fallen into the hands of the Hesna Army?
No — wait. Surely not…
"They're offering to hand over the Holy Sword Rashutar?"
"They are."
Seriously??
If that was true, this was a deal we absolutely had to take.
In this game, Martial Force was strength — raw physical power. Higher Martial meant you were stronger. Lower Martial meant your odds of defeating a general with higher Martial dropped sharply.
Of course, now that this was a real world, those numbers wouldn't function as absolute values the way they did for me —
But as long as the rules still applied, it remained an extraordinarily potent weapon.
So this is what Intelligence 100 foresaw.
This weapon would be especially useful to Serpina's forces. Their greatest weakness was the complete absence of S-rank generals; put this sword in the hands of even an A-rank officer, and they could roughly approximate S-rank performance.
But if we had been blinded by twenty-eight thousand gold and accepted Roland's offer without a second thought, this opportunity would never have come.
When she said we would suffer a loss, she must have meant we nearly threw away the Holy Sword Rashutar. That lines up almost perfectly.
Serpina extended one pale hand toward me. The gesture was so elegant it held a kind of magic that made a person forget to look away.
"Twenty thousand gold and the Holy Sword Rashutar — those are the terms for a nine-month alliance with the Hesna Army. What do you make of it, Swen?"
I believe we may form the alliance this time. Nine months is not so long, and securing the Holy Sword Rashutar would be of great help—
Before I could answer on impulse, I fed a question into my mind just to be sure.
Would forming an alliance with the Hesna Army be efficient for our forces?
I assumed the answer would be yes.
In the long term, this alliance offers little benefit.
……????
Huh?
What?
A holy sword and twenty thousand gold don't count as a major benefit??
Why???
It wasn't a conclusion that said we would take a loss… but the fact that the benefit wasn't substantial meant there was clearly a better decision available to us.
Even for a throwaway nine-month alliance, the benefit wasn't large?
Did that mean another proposal was coming in the meantime?
If no further offers were coming, the prediction wouldn't have given this vague "little benefit" — it would have cleanly returned "yes." These forecasts carried absolute certainty.
So we had to let this one pass as well?
"Swen."
"Ah… yes."
"Your expression has changed."
So I had failed to keep my face neutral.
I bowed my head lightly and answered in a deliberately serious tone.
"It is nothing. I was merely… thinking."
"Oh? Even with the Holy Sword Rashutar and twenty thousand gold before you, you claim you still need to think?"
"……"
I hadn't even voiced an opposing opinion yet…
Somehow, I had the distinct feeling she had already read that my thoughts were leaning toward not forming the alliance.
From time to time Serpina said things that made me wonder if she could actually read minds. Whether it was sharp intuition or an uncanny ability to read faces…
Anyway.
How should I play this?
Honestly, part of me wanted to just say we should take the Holy Sword Rashutar. It wouldn't be the optimal answer — but it would spare me the familiar pattern of some bizarre prediction declaring itself optimal, then having to scramble for a justification to sell her on it.
And no matter how much greater the eventual gain might be, the Holy Sword Rashutar would still be genuinely useful. At that level, I wouldn't even need to feel guilty about lying to her… would I?
But two things held me back.
"Fufu…"
First: Serpina herself, watching me in silence with that captivating, smiling gaze.
Even if I casually claimed this was the optimal path, would she simply accept it? She was sharp enough that she might catch me in a lie.
At Hisphil Castle, and every time we spoke — Serpina was a woman who read thoughts with ghostly precision.
On top of that, only a few days ago she had asked me that loaded question: whether the real her truly lived in my heart.
And second… what had happened just recently.
Serpina had taken Irene's side.
I didn't know the full details, but she was using her authority as sovereign to shield Irene as much as possible from the unfriendly stares of the other officers.
She had treated me well, and Irene, and Reika too… was it too soft of me to say I didn't want to be coldly ruthless, chasing only maximum efficiency?
…No.
Gratitude alone wasn't the reason to help her here.
In this situation, the straightforward approach — simply aiding her without overcomplicating things — was likely the correct answer.
I still intended to return to the Lunarien forces eventually, but there was no telling when she would raise her army. Even if destiny named her the unifier of the continent, it had never specified when.
And though she had shown no such signs yet, Serpina was a woman whose name was known far and wide as a tyrant. In circumstances like these, staying useful to her seemed the safer path to keeping my head attached.
And decisively—
"Oh? Even with the Holy Sword Rashutar and twenty thousand gold before you, you claim you still need to think?"
She was, in her own way, already predicting my answer.
If I defied that prediction here, I was more likely to face harder questioning, not less.
There's no need to set myself against her.
I became certain that simply saying what I actually thought was the only way to keep from planting a question mark in her mind.
Whether or not to act on a strategist's counsel was the lord's decision, after all.
"Perhaps it would be wise to wait a little longer."
"You believe a far better offer may yet arrive?"
"I do."
"……"
Serpina fell silent for a moment, then nodded.
"I thought you would say that. This time, Swen, I shall follow your counsel. The holy sword is a pity, but its absence will not meaningfully alter our army's future… and you have already proven yourself."
I thought you would say that… huh.
Having chosen the correct answer, I bowed my head in silence.
All I could do was hope that when some offer that looked far less valuable than this one appeared, the prediction wouldn't spit out a simple "yes."
Time passed once more.
The Roland Army sent another envoy.
This time the sum had dropped to fifteen thousand gold. But the duration had shortened as well — to a mere three months.
Maintain a brief three-month alliance, and we could pocket fifteen thousand gold.
Twelve months was short in the grand scheme, yet also surprisingly long. And the result:
This alliance offers no benefit whatsoever.
Huh.
I'd thought that with the shorter term, even a smaller sum might turn out to be the right call. The longer an alliance lasted, the longer our forces would be tied down, after all.
Of course, after passing on a holy sword, even a "beneficial" verdict on this one would have felt a little cheap… but apparently this wasn't it either.
"Very well. I shall follow your counsel once again."
Serpina said this, covering her mouth with a soft kufufu of laughter.
It was a little unsettling how readily she had been accepting my word lately, when she used to demand justification every single time…
Well, the decision was still hers. I simply did what I was meant to do.
And then, several days later—
This time a messenger arrived from the Ohana Army, positioned beneath the Hesna Army.
Apparently everyone from the far south was falling over themselves to join hands with the tyrant Serpina.
It struck me anew that in an age of chaos, things like honor and law didn't seem to count for much as values.
"An alliance of twelve months for eight thousand nine hundred gold, my lord?"
"That is correct."
This one wasn't even worth considering. It was the worst offer yet.
……Wait.
But thinking back on the pattern of my predictions… wasn't this exactly the kind of moment when it would spit out something like "This is efficient"?
I would then clutch my head over some lottery-ball of a forecast and reverse-engineer why on earth this was supposed to be optimal.
Don't tell me… again…?
An oddly ominous chill crawled up my spine as Serpina looked straight at me and asked,
"Well then, Swen. What do you make of this proposal?"
Even though it was obviously the worst offer of the lot, she had specifically summoned me to ask about it?
I was grateful for the question… but I still couldn't begin to guess what she was thinking.
Anyway — time to input it.
If concluded, this alliance would inflict severe losses.
……Whew.
I let out a deep sigh of relief at the conclusion that had appeared in my mind.
Ahh, that's better. This is what a prediction should look like.
How thoroughly sensible.
If, after rejecting twenty-eight thousand gold for twelve months, twenty thousand gold plus the Holy Sword Rashutar for nine months, and fifteen thousand gold for three months, I had then claimed that eight thousand nine hundred gold for twelve months was the most efficient option?
Serpina would certainly have said, "If that is what you believe, then present a sound argument capable of persuading me" — and I would have been trapped in the deeply awkward, deeply painful position of thinking myself into a headache all over again.
Thank goodness it didn't cross the line this time.
These past few rounds, just getting a bare answer with no explanation had been frustrating… but as long as the results stayed this commonsensical, I couldn't ask for more.
Ideally, I'd like positive predictions to land on opinions I wouldn't even need to persuade Serpina about.
For example — something that would never actually happen, of course — an offer of 4,294,967,296 gold for a twelve-month alliance.
That one wouldn't need explaining. "My lord, what is there to deliberate? Take it. Four billion two hundred ninety-four million nine hundred sixty-seven thousand two hundred ninety-six gold is not exactly the name of someone's dog, is it?" — a perfectly rational argument anyone would applaud.
That aside… what on earth is coming that keeps making us turn everything down?
Every plausible lord seemed to have already made their approach.
Karelia was famed as a virtuous ruler, so she was unlikely to come seeking an alliance with the notorious tyrant Serpina. And the remaining two nations — Aesius and Brans — already had poor relations with our army.
What could Roland, Ohana, or Hesna possibly be about to offer that kept making my predictions come back negative?
I waited for the next proposal with that thought in mind.
Yes.
I was definitely waiting for the next proposal with that thought in mind.
This is an efficient alliance that presents a major opportunity for our forces.
……??
The Intelligence 100 prediction had once again boarded a rocket of its own free will and blasted off into outer space.