Chapter 63: The Future of the New York Stock Market
Chapter 63: The Future of the New York Stock Market
New York City, population 8.33 million.
Though its official population is smaller than Seoul's, the city is usually bustling with tourists and commuters from neighboring states.
Home to the UN Headquarters, the New York Stock Exchange, the Empire State Building, the Metropolitan Museum of Art, and Lincoln Center.
It was the center of the global economy, its skyline defined by towering skyscrapers.
A city of culture where one could admire famous architecture and see plays, musicals, and variety shows in theaters on Broadway with over a century of history.
It was a city where art and passion flourished, home to world-renowned art schools.
“It’s so quiet.”
“This is the first time I’ve seen it like this.”
I was walking through Manhattan after arriving in New York on a private jet.
It felt like less than ten percent of the people were out and about compared to my previous visits.
It was likely because tourists from all over the world were staying away, and entry from Europe, in particular, had been suspended.
*A quiet New York street feels strange.*
The private jet I’d taken to New York for the first time was more disappointing than I’d expected.
Jason had booked it for me through a private jet rental service.
San Francisco to New York.
It was the latest model from Gulfstream, the kind often used by business executives and Hollywood celebrities.
It was nice not having to jostle with other passengers, but the plane was smaller than what I was used to, which felt unsettling.
*It feels kind of unsafe. I hope they’re doing proper maintenance.*
I also missed the comfort of a first-class seat and the service of the flight attendants.
Then again, I remembered riding a train in India during my travels where over a hundred people were crammed into a single car.
I think I felt a sense of liberation the moment I got off after three hours.
* * *
A luxury apartment in Manhattan.
It was Ellie's place, where I’d stayed for a few days whenever I passed through New York during my travels.
I rang the bell, and a moment later, the door opened.
Ellie’s blue eyes looked at me.
“Shin? Aren’t you busy with your business in Silicon Valley? I never thought you’d actually come all this way!”
“It’s nothing. Let me put my things down first.”
I set down the heavy bags of groceries I’d bought in San Francisco.
“Have you eaten?”
“I don’t have much of an appetite. Just some oatmeal for today, maybe?”
“I’ll cook you something first.”
I’d gotten a good sense of her eating habits while we were traveling. She’d devour just about anything, including alligator.
I grilled a steak and made a simple salad.
The YouTube film crew hadn’t come to New York, and my bodyguards were staying at a nearby hotel, so it was just the two of us.
“Work’s been tough?”
“It is, but there’s a sense of satisfaction in growing little by little. When I become a manager, the budgets I handle will be larger, and my clients will be more high-profile.”
“That’s impressive.”
“You’re the impressive one. I never imagined you’d become a businessman in such a short time.”
“Neither did I.”
I had thought about living my life by investing my money here and there.
If I were to start a business, it would have been something like an investment firm.
Even Dream Art Rainbow in Korea was created with the idea of investing in content while also dabbling in production.
I never expected to launch a full-fledged business in Silicon Valley. And what’s more, that business was growing at an incredible rate.
“Don’t you do many media interviews?”
“I’ve gotten a lot of requests. But it feels like I’m just repeating the same story every time.”
“The more famous Earth Resource becomes, the more you’ll be exposed to the media.”
“I suppose so.”
We talked about business, about hobbies.
Night fell as we discussed life in New York and the coronavirus.
When it was time to sleep, I lay down in the guest bed, and she came in wearing her pajamas.
“Are you asleep?”
She always came into the room with some excuse.
Last time, I think she’d suggested we watch Netflix together.
“Not yet.”
“I came to find my cat.”
“Your cat?”
Had she gotten a cat since I last saw her?
She slipped into the bed and whispered in my ear.
“Meow.”
* * *
Early morning.
I was going to make her toast, just like Lee Jong-yeop had made for me.
But Ellie was already reading American and European newspapers on her tablet and working on her computer, logged into her company account.
She was completely different in the morning than she was at night.
“You’re up?”
“Yeah. You start work early.”
“Of course. There’s a lot to check.”
She checked everything from oil prices to exchange rates, interest rates, raw materials like copper and lead, and agricultural products like corn and sugar.
She also kept track of stock market trends in various countries, political developments, and the coronavirus situation.
*She’s really dedicated.*
As I was admiring her diligence, Ellie’s face fell.
“My returns this year are a disaster.”
“The New York stock market has been a mess because of the coronavirus. Everyone must be taking losses.”
“I’m at minus twenty-one percent.”
“...”
I was about to offer some warm words of comfort, but I was at a loss for words.
If you were investing your own money, a negative return like that would be understandable.
But what would clients think if the money they entrusted to an investment bank was down twenty-one percent?
*This is a pretty familiar situation in Korea, though.*
It reminded me of a fund that a Korean securities firm had ambitiously launched.
When I was in college, I became interested in funds because saving the money I earned from part-time jobs wasn't enough.
The Insight Fund.
The firm claimed it would invest anywhere in the world where there was money to be made.
Those words filled me with great faith and expectation.
*If I consistently put money into the fund and get good returns, someday I’ll be able to buy a house and a car.*
I was very interested, but paying off my student loans was the priority, so I couldn't invest.
*I need to make money quickly and invest.*
But within a year, the principal of that Insight Fund had been cut in half.
They said they would invest wherever there was money to be made, but in reality, they went all-in on China and crashed.
That was the moment I lost my trust in Korean securities firms. And now Ellie was going through the same thing on Wall Street.
How would an office worker feel if they trusted a firm with 100 million won, only to lose 21 million?
“Minus twenty-one percent is a little… severe.”
“Right? The other managers are only seeing losses in the teens, but I’m completely ruined. Your returns this year must be excellent, right, Shin?”
“I sold my stocks. Almost everything I made this year came from put options.”
“You sold most of your stocks?”
“Yeah. I sold them when I bought the put options.”
“Wow.”
Ellie looked on in admiration, her eyes sparkling.
It was the look one gives a successful investment expert.
I never thought I’d receive such a look from a Wall Street financier.
“Kim Shin, you’re really good at investing.”
“It’s just luck.”
“I’m so envious.”
* * *
For three days, I cooked, ate well, and rested at Ellie’s place.
New York, a metropolis of over eight million people.
With the coronavirus situation worsening, there weren’t many people out on the streets.
*It’s a strange feeling. So completely different from before.*
It felt like staying in a city struck by disaster.
I didn’t go out except to buy groceries.
Whenever I did walk the streets, my bodyguards and a mask were essential.
- Kim Shin: How’s the company?
- Oh Myeong-woo: Running perfectly! Want me to send over a detailed report?
- Kim Shin: No. You must be busy, don’t worry about it.
Even without me in Silicon Valley, Earth Resource was doing well.
- Vice President Jeong Beom-tae: We are actively investing in films and dramas. Meetings are going smoothly thanks to your reputation, CEO.
My Korean business was also thriving, so I could relax with peace of mind.
Ellie had to work for a considerable amount of time starting in the morning.
She was working from home, but it was a time of extreme volatility in the stock market.
It plunged due to the coronavirus, then surged as the U.S. administration and the Fed boldly stepped in with financial support and lowered interest rates.
Despite all that, the New York stock market was getting hammered overall.
“They’re saying the first quarter was the worst in the history of the New York stock market.”
“Really? Well, the market was bad, so it couldn’t be helped.”
“Sigh. We’ll probably see big losses in the second quarter, too. Maybe it’s better to just sell all my stocks and take the year off.”
The fear index was soaring to an all-time high, and market participants were suffering terrible losses.
She mentioned a colleague who was down in the teens had lost another five percent in a single day, surpassing her own losses.
“What do you think the stock market will do from now on?”
Ellie asked casually, but it wasn't a question I could answer lightly.
“Hmm... can I tell you tonight?”
“I was just asking casually.”
“Still, I feel like I need to give it some thought.”
“Okay. I understand.”
I sat in a chair by the window, looking down at the Manhattan scenery.
While running my business, I’d had to meet new employees almost every day.
I’d been hanging out with Oh Myeong-woo, and there were constant meetings with Lee Jong-yeop or YouTube shoots.
I hadn't had the mental space to think about much else, but here in New York, I finally had a chance to think calmly.
*What’s going to happen to the stock market?*
I had bought put options, predicting a massive spread of coronavirus infections.
It had resulted in a $10.5 billion windfall in just one week.
*That became my source of confidence.*
In society, money was confidence.
In my case, I’d had so little money since elementary school that I lived a life far removed from confidence.
I suppose I regained some of it while working at Arcor.
After earning $10.5 billion, I’d felt incredibly confident about my business in Silicon Valley.
*It’s not enough money.*
Many people would throw stones if they heard me say that, but it was how I truly felt.
My total assets right now were probably around $18 billion.
They say the rich don’t know how much money they have, and just like that, it was hard for me to remember the exact amount.
There were amounts invested here and there, split among various startups.
Besides that, the emergency paper companies and Earth Resource had also become significant assets.
$18 billion was an enormous sum. For a moment, I thought I might have become the richest person in South Korea.
But in reality, with that money, I couldn’t even acquire a single core affiliate of a major Korean conglomerate.
Their market caps were at least in the trillions of won, and the stock price would skyrocket the moment I started acquiring shares.
The limits of being cash-rich.
I could buy almost any luxury item, but buying a corporation was difficult.
In terms of power and influence, I was less than the corporate leaders of Korea.
*If I had tens of billions of dollars, I feel like I could live doing more of what I want.*
I didn’t have expert knowledge in investing, but I had always won so far.
Bitcoin, Ripple, put options.
The bold investments I made, predicting the future, had all been huge successes.
Intuition and luck.
It must have been because everything had fallen into place...
*Right now, the coronavirus is the key.*
Fear was spreading uncontrollably through the stock market due to the spread of the virus.
If I hadn’t liquidated my put options and had held on, I would have recorded an even more incredible return.
After all, they said the first quarter, the month of March, was the worst in the history of the New York stock market.
Even with a mentality forged by Bitcoin and Ripple, $10.5 billion had been too much to handle, so I’d taken the profit.
*The fatality rate of the coronavirus isn’t that high.*
Moreover, I was someone who knew about the COVID-19 vaccine.
Biolife had succeeded in developing a vaccine.
It might have side effects or be less effective, but didn't that mean other pharmaceutical companies could also create a vaccine?
mRNA.
*Dr. Lee Ho-yeon said that major pharmaceutical companies would soon succeed in developing a vaccine using the method of injecting protein conversion information into the human body.*
He said the vaccine could have mild side effects.
In rare cases where the human body couldn't accept it, severe side effects could occur.
Biolife had created a vaccine using the recombinant protein method, a highly stable spike protein.
*Whichever method is the right one, a vaccine will be out within a few months. Much faster than the media or experts are predicting.*
The media was predicting years, but the emergence of artificial intelligence acted as a massive variable in vaccine development.
Biolife had started early, and they had Dr. Lee Ho-yeon, but it was at a level that other pharmaceutical companies could catch up to within a few months.
*If a vaccine comes out, won't the stock market be able to embrace hope, one way or another?*
The stock market was gripped by extreme fear, being dragged down into the basement, and then into a sub-basement.
If hope existed, the stock market could rebound sharply.