How I Made It Back in South America
Ricardo's voice thundered through the office.
"Your Excellency, the government bonds have sold out!"
"The first issuance—ten billion dollars—is fully subscribed! And I'm told it sold out within thirty minutes of the offering."
It was an absolute jackpot. For the bonds of an emerging nation whose international credit rating had only just been upgraded to BB—and a sum of ten billion dollars, no less—to vanish in an instant was a thing without precedent.
But Eugene, who had predicted this very outcome, merely sipped his coffee, utterly unsurprised.
"Is that so?"
"Yes! Oversubscription exceeded three times the offering. At this rate, the second tranche will sell out as well, without a doubt!"
"That's excellent news. Next... ah, just a moment."
Vrrr.
Eugene's personal cell phone vibrated. The caller was Park Moon-soo, South Korea's Ambassador to San Marcos.
"Yes, Ambassador."
"I hear the first government bond issuance has sold out."
"It's all thanks to the Korean government."
"Not at all. It sold out because the terms were attractive. The government didn't do a thing."
There was a mixture of bewilderment and congratulations in Park Moon-soo's voice.
"Truth is, on orders from the Blue House, the National Pension Service was preparing to buy a large portion of this issuance. They judged the yield was a sure thing. But..."
"......"
"Before they could even lift the lid, individual investors and institutions had swept up the entire allotment."
"Everyone's got quick hands."
"Thanks to that, the pension fund chairman even called me asking to request that some of the next round be set aside for them."
"Of course. I'll earmark a portion for the pension fund on the next issuance."
Korea's National Pension Service was a titan among titans in the capital markets, commanding over a trillion dollars in assets. If they made a request, you'd give them the shirt off your back—and your pants besides—and nobody would blink.
"Congratulations once again."
"Thank you, Ambassador."
The moment he hung up, Eugene saw that a text had come in from Chairman Chung of Hyunhwa Group.
Eugene smirked and tapped out a reply.
Ten billion dollars. Roughly thirteen trillion won. San Marcos's national treasury had filled to the brim in a single stroke.
An ordinary leader would have started thinking about administration—laying down infrastructure, expanding the welfare budget. Eugene was different.
The interest? I'll make it back. Make it.
He had not the slightest intention of simply spending this money.
After everyone had gone home for the day, I quietly summoned Senior Finance Secretary Ricardo, Chief of Staff Isabella, and SIA Director Lucio to my office.
"Sorry to call you in at this hour."
"Not at all, Your Excellency. Being summoned by you is an honor in itself."
I broke the heavy silence first.
"Before anything else, I want to thank Senior Secretary Ricardo for all the hard work on this."
"You're too kind. It was all thanks to Your Excellency's foresight."
Ricardo dipped his head, looking faintly embarrassed.
"Do you intend to invest the entire ten billion in the power expansion project?"
"There's still work to do."
I shook my head at Isabella's question.
"I do have a use in mind for it, but... the solar plants won't break ground for a while yet, will they?"
"That's correct. Between posting the tender and selecting a contractor, it will take three months at a minimum."
"So during those three months, I thought we might grow the money a little."
"I beg your pardon? Grow it?"
"I'm thinking of using the bond proceeds to short the dollar."
"......!!"
Ricardo shot to his feet in horror.
"Y-Your Excellency! You mean to speculate with the national budget?!"
"It's not speculation. It's an investment."
"You cannot! We cannot gamble with the people's debt!"
Ricardo opposed it with foam practically at his lips. A natural reaction. Betting the nation's lifeblood on derivatives—and on a falling market, no less. For the man responsible for San Marcos's finances, it was the sort of thing that could induce a heart attack.
But I was certain.
"Calm down, Senior Secretary Ricardo. I haven't even mentioned leverage yet."
"L-leverage?! Absolutely not!"
Ricardo clutched the back of his neck, on the verge of collapse, when Lucio cut in with a heavy voice.
"Senior Secretary Ricardo. You go too far."
"I beg your pardon?"
"When has His Excellency ever been wrong? If you cannot bring yourself to trust him, then be silent."
"He's right."
Isabella added, her tone ice-cold.
"There is always a reason for His Excellency's decisions. He is seeing something we are not."
Under the two of them, Ricardo shut his mouth.
Lucio looked at me with a steady gaze.
"Your Excellency, I believe there must be a clear basis for your conviction. May I ask what it is?"
I nodded.
"Of course."
I walked over to the map hanging on one wall of the office.
"What's the state of the American economy right now? Inflation is coming under control, and the employment numbers are softening. The Drumpf administration's doctrine is America First—which is to say, it's concentrated on shrinking the U.S. trade deficit."
"......"
"Drumpf is desperate to pressure the Fed into cutting rates. He even went on Twitter a few days ago to attack the Fed Chair."
"Ah..."
"The market is already responding. Over the next three months, the United States will enter a rate-cut cycle, and the dollar's value will fall as a matter of course. All we have to do is ride that current."
A logical, clean analysis. But there was a far more certain basis than any of this analysis.
"That old man running the Fed has been a real pain in my ass lately. Rates need to come down so businesses can breathe—that's how you get money circulating in the market—but he just will not listen. Just you wait, though. At next month's FOMC, he's going to hear me out. I've got a... very particular card I'm planning to play. If you've got any sense, you should 'invest' too. Guys like us in politics, this is when you grow the personal nest egg. Gotta make sure retirement's comfortable."
That was the content of my call with Drumpf.
I had no idea what that "particular card" of his actually was, but one thing was certain: the president of the world's most powerful nation had made up his mind to cut rates and drive down the value of the dollar. And he had told me so. What insider information could possibly be more airtight than that?
"A sure... opportunity, then."
Lucio nodded. Even Ricardo, who had been opposing me, could find nothing to say. He sat there like a man who'd swallowed honey and gone mute.
"Right? So I was thinking of going into an inverse position at three times leverage..."
Use 3x leverage, take a clean twenty percent, and get out. That would be enough to offset a decent portion of the interest on the bond issuance. That was the plan.
That was when Isabella, who had been listening in silence, opened her mouth.
"...I'm sorry?"
I looked at her, certain I had misheard. She answered with clear eyes brimming with a kind of madness.
"Let us proceed at twenty times leverage, Your Excellency."
"......"
"Chief of Staff, twenty times—if the dollar rises by a mere five percent, the principal goes to zero."
Ricardo waved his hands in a panic, but Isabella was immovable.
"There is no possibility of His Excellency failing."
"Even so, an investment requires caution—"
"This is the man who found oil fields and paid off a nine-billion-dollar debt for eight hundred million. You think he cannot call a mere exchange rate? If we are going to invest at all, I believe we should secure a decisive profit."
"......"
Lucio answered in my place.
"What about ten times?"
"Hm?"
"If we take too much, we risk drawing America's eye. Ten times would be more prudent, would it not?"
"That's not a bad thought. There's sense in it."
And then Senior Secretary Ricardo, who until this moment had been arguing against the entire scheme, reversed himself completely.
"I fear I have been thinking about this all wrong. Even if Your Excellency pointed at the sun and called it the moon, I ought to believe you—and this wretched fool doubted you, even for a moment."
As if Isabella's madness were contagious, Ricardo spoke with the same fever shining in his eyes.
"I, too, support ten times leverage. If the dollar falls by just ten percent, we make ten billion dollars."
"......"
I stared at Ricardo, dumbfounded. Was this the same finance secretary who had been foaming at the mouth in opposition a minute ago? This middle-aged man, eyes glittering, shouting ten times in my face?
No.
Ricardo, you're supposed to talk them down.
The last halfway-sane person in the room had been swept into the cauldron of madness Isabella and Lucio had cooked up, and now he was rotting right along with them.
"H-hold on. Let's all just calm down."
I waved my hands, cold sweat beading on my skin.
"I don't think my prediction will be wrong, but the market is a living thing. It has spasms. It puts in temporary rallies. What if we short it and the dollar spikes ten percent, even for a moment? We could take a margin call on the spot."
Isabella didn't so much as blink at my desperate appeal.
"Then it simply must not rise."
"...What?"
"She's right. On the other side of that coin, if it falls just ten percent, we take a hundred. Why concern yourself with it rising?"
"If it succeeds, it's an investment. If it fails, it's gambling. Is that not so?"
"No, that's—"
"Your Excellency."
Isabella stared through me. There was not a shred of doubt in her eyes.
"We believe in you. Ten billion dollars? If we lose it, we make it back. But if we let this opportunity slip and fail to make another ten billion—would that not be the greater loss?"
"She's right!"
Ricardo slammed the desk and piled on.
"Your Excellency! I, Ricardo, finally understand! For a poor country to become a rich one, this is the kind of bold decision that is required! Three times? Five times? That's what cowards do. If a man has drawn his sword, he should at least cut a radish!"
No—it might not be a radish that gets cut. It might be the whole foundation getting ripped out.
I was losing my mind.
Three pairs of eyes blazed at me with a fierce light, like zealots waiting on a miracle.
And yet.
It's not like they're completely wrong.
The more I listened, the more it stood to reason. Why had I wanted to make the money back in the first place? To shave down, even a little, the interest burden on the bonds we'd issued. But if we hit it as big as Ricardo was saying?
The interest burden on every bond we issued from here on would vanish entirely.
Damn it... I'm putting my faith in you, Drumpf. For real.
I squeezed my eyes shut, then opened them. My heart was hammering, but I answered with as much composure as I could fake.
I walked forward with a deliberately solemn expression.
"If your faith in me runs that deep... then I'll repay it."
"Ohh...!"
"But there's a condition."
I fixed the three of them with a cold look and pressed a finger to my lips.
"This decision stays secret until the grave."
"Yes, Your Excellency!!!"
I swallowed a sigh and issued my final instructions.
"Senior Secretary Ricardo. Look into dollar inverse products immediately."
"Yes, understood!"
"Director Lucio, identify any risks that might arise. Chief of Staff Isabella, find a way to maximize the returns."
And so I decided on the bet of a lifetime—one that would stake the future of the nation.