The Gambler's Fallacy and the Tree of Fortune

Tae-hyun possessed the authorities of other gods as well, so wouldn't it have been much better if one of those had taken root instead? Even if it wasn't Sadiq or Carbanog, an authority like Demer's would have... 'Ah, wait. This is someone else's territory, so that would be completely pointless.' Come to think of it, Archisus was actually a much better outcome. If Demer's authority suddenly turned this entire surrounding area into incredibly fertile land? His stomach would have twisted in pure envy.

'Ooh...!' Yes. It had to be at least this much to make planting it worthwhile!

'...?' Tae-hyun was puzzled. You could pray? That was something you could already do just by going to any temple. Prayer was one of the basic functions of a religious order! If you went to a statue or a temple of the order and prayed, you received order-related buffs. The higher your contribution points and the stronger the order, the better the buffs you received. The size and craftsmanship of the statue or temple where you prayed also played a role! 'Does praying at the World Tree change anything? This is highly suspicious...'

Patter, patter. Just then, Cain arrived.

"Pant, pant. Am I too late?"

"Boooooo!"

"Apostle! Is a guy who arrives that late even worth keeping as a slave?"

Jeers immediately erupted from the Archisus Artillery. Cain's shoulders slumped.

"H-Hey! I couldn't help it, I had to run for my life too!"

"You think you're the only one who ran?!"

"Apostle! Please give us the slave position! We'll do a much better job!"

"That guy doesn't deserve to be a slave!"

The artillery warriors from the Akisus Tribe fiercely criticized Cain. Cain flustered, sweating bullets. Am I really going to get fired?

"Well, anyone can be a little late."

"Kim Tae-hyun...!!!"

"Go over there and try praying."

"...?"

Whenever Tae-hyun encountered something unknown, he always made Cain do it first. The ultimate test of faith! Unaware of what was happening, Cain walked forward like an innocent, gullible ox. Lee Da-bi, Yu Ji-soo, and Jeong Su-hyeok stared at Cain with pitying eyes. What a remarkably easy man to trick!

Cain approached the tree and prayed.

"...?" Cain tilted his head. The answer slipped out of his mouth without much thought. "Uh... money?"

Clink-clink! Five gold ‍‍‌‌⁠​​⁠‌​​‍​​‍​‌​⁠‍‌‍⁠⁠‌⁠‌‍‌‍‌‌‌‍⁠​‌​‌​‌‍‌‌‌⁠‍​​‌‍⁠‌‌⁠⁠coins rained down in front of Cain. A whopping 5 gold! "??!?" Lee Da-bi was the most shocked of all. A tree that literally dropped money! Wasn't that the exact kind of tree she had dreamed of growing since she was a little girl?

"What is it? What happened?" At Tae-hyun's prompting, Cain began to explain what he saw in detail. 'Misfortune accumulates?' Tae-hyun instantly sensed the danger. Could this be...? Completely oblivious, Cain shouted excitedly, "Can I try praying some more?" "Sure, go ahead. But keep asking for money." Cain eagerly trotted back to the tree.

"Money! Money! Money!" Silver coins dropped, occasionally gold coins, and sometimes copper coins. But then, at a certain point, a system message popped up.

"......Aaaaaaaagh! Aaagh! Kuaaaagh!" Cain screamed bloody murder and collapsed backward.

"What's wrong?"

"M-My gold... that tree...!" Cain couldn't even form a proper sentence. It was only natural. In the blink of an eye, his entire life savings had been snatched away by a tree. There was no highway robber more ruthless than this!

"How much did it take?"

"Everything!"

"Oh..."

"Is 'oh' all you have to say?! We have to kill that tree! Chop it down and get my gold back...!" With his eyes rolled back in half-mad fury, Cain lunged at the tree. Thud! Thud!

"Hey! Give me my money! Give it back!"

"Someone stop him."

At Tae-hyun's command, the Akisus Tribe Warriors rushed forward in a swarm and pinned Cain down. 'Ah. So that's how it works.' Tae-hyun quickly grasped the mechanics of the system. While the effects of praying here were far more powerful and tangible than anywhere else, the misfortune that triggered upon failure grew exponentially the more you did it! If you kept pushing your luck like Cain and hit the jackpot of bad luck... 'Instant death!' It was a relief it only took gold. If he had prayed for something like a strength stat boost and failed, he might have had to quit the game entirely.

'How far can these wishes go?' Once Cain regained his senses, Tae-hyun spoke to him again.

"Hey. Try wishing for something else."

"...Aren't you being a bit too cruel?!"

"Don't worry. The misfortune already exploded once, so you're safe now."

In truth, it wasn't safe at all, but Cain fell for it yet again.

"Really?"

"Yeah, since it already went off, it won't explode again for a while."

The gambler's fallacy! Just because a coin landed on tails ten times in a row didn't mean the probability of it landing on heads next time was any higher. Of course, Tae-hyun knew this perfectly well. He was just saying it to trick Cain!

"Oh, that makes sense."

"Right? Now go back and wish for this: 'Please let us defeat the Guild Alliance.'"

Cain did as he was told.

"It says it can't grant that."

"Why? Is it beyond its power?"

"No. It says the solution is already standing right next to me..." Cain pointed at Tae-hyun as he spoke. Tae-hyun was taken aback. That was an entirely unexpected response!

"...This time, ask it to make you a god."

"That's a bit... embarrassing..."

"......"

"Alright, fine. I'll go try."

Cain went and made the prayer. Asking to become a god—it was an embarrassing wish even for him!

"It says it can't do it. It's beyond its power."

"As expected, that's what pops up when it's truly impossible."

This was the normal response! The previous answer, essentially saying 'The guy next to you can crush the Guild Alliance,' was the anomaly.

"Hmm... this seems pretty good. First, we need to build a temple nearby."

"But, Tae-hyun..."

"...?"

"Is the surrounding area really going to be okay?"

Rumbleeee— Around the World Tree, light was gathering on one side, while darkness was ‍‍‌‌⁠​​⁠‌​​‍​​‍​‌​⁠‍‌‍⁠⁠‌⁠‌‍‌‍‌‌‌‍⁠​‌​‌​‌‍‌‌‌⁠‍​​‌‍⁠‌‌⁠⁠swirling on the other.

The atmosphere was so tense that it wouldn't be surprising if something happened right this second!

"If angels or demons show up, we'll just fight them. Or capture them."

Tae-hyun replied nonchalantly. Other players would have dreaded the appearance of angels or demons, but to Tae-hyun, they were nothing more than delicious prey. If he saw them, he would capture them and put them to work!

"He actually did it! Player Kim Tae-hyun has achieved the server's very first dragon hunt!"

"Are you watching this, everyone?! This deeply moving... Aaaagh! The explosion reached all the way here!"

Tae-hyun's successful dragon raid shook the entire world of Pan-On. It was a monumental success that completely silenced all the skeptics who had doubted whether a dragon raid was even possible at the current player level, even for someone as absurd as Kim Tae-hyun!

"Recruiting for a dragon raid party."

"If Kim Tae-hyun can do it, so can we! Challenging the dragon raid!"

Dragon raid parties, which had been treated as a taboo for the longest time, were suddenly popping up all over the place. Under normal circumstances, it was a suicidal act no one would ever attempt, but the shockwave Tae-hyun had sent through the community was just that massive. Furthermore, once a pioneer succeeded, those who followed could study their methods and formulate a strategy. Low-tier rankers and high-level players eager for fame put their heads together to dissect Tae-hyun's video.

Summoning demons to hold down a dragon was already completely impossible for normal players! It wasn't like he had summoned a single low-tier imp to do his bidding; he had summoned high-tier demons in droves and ordered them around like common laborers.

While the dragon raid parties were racking their brains, the vast majority of the player base was focused on something else: the aftermath of the Clash of the Plains! The dragon raid was shocking, but the defeat and retreat of the Guild Alliance's army was equally earth-shattering. Although the Guild Alliance had been suffering raids here and there, people had assumed it was only because they weren't engaging in direct confrontations. The Auston Kingdom was simply too vast for the Guild Alliance to defend every corner, and bandit players were merely taking advantage of that to hit and run... or so they thought. But to suffer a crushing defeat in a head-on clash on the open plains! It was a devastating blow to the Guild Alliance. Their once-invincible image shattered, and investors immediately began breathing down their necks.

An army of tens of thousands of Orcs, supplemented by a Necromancer's undead horde striking from the rear... If they had won, it would have been a glorious, legendary victory. The Battle of the Plains and the dragon raid were currently dominating the top two spots in broadcast viewership ratings. Yet, they had lost! The Guild Alliance began to fracture from within. The most prominent symptom of this decay was the sudden departure of several member guilds.

The Guild Alliance was not solely composed of Chinese guilds close to Su Ning. It was a coalition of the core Chinese mega-guilds and various other international mega-guilds that had allied with them! Naturally, those non-Chinese mega-guilds immediately began looking for an exit strategy. In truth, any guild that wasn't part of the core Chinese faction had been quietly getting the short end of the stick, receiving remote border territories instead of prime, central lands. They had tolerated it because the benefits of staying in the Guild Alliance outweighed the drawbacks, and they believed in the alliance's overwhelming strength... but now that illusion was shattered, there was no reason to stay.

One after another, major English-speaking guilds began to defect! For the Guild Alliance, which was barely clinging to the capital of the Auston Kingdom and its central regions, these defections were a fatal blow. The number of rankers they could mobilize plummeted. The Guild Alliance was facing its darkest hour since its inception. From the outside, investors were hounding them to get their act together; from the inside, disgruntled guilds were abandoning ship; and the outer regions of the kingdom were completely devastated...

But the trials raining down on Su Ning were far from over. The defecting English-speaking guilds began attempting to form an alliance with the mega-guilds based in the Erangs Kingdom.

A massive new faction, capable of rivaling the Guild Alliance, was on the verge of being born.

"Mwahahaha! What an arrogant bastard! How dare you erect such a building right before our eyes!"

A demon emerging from the dark side of the World Tree approached, laughing boisterously alongside his subordinates. Their target was the mysterious temple being constructed in front of the World Tree!

"Did you honestly think we would just stand by and watch? What god dares to be so insol—Aaaaagh! Aaaaagh! Aaaaaaaagh!"

The demons shrieked in sheer terror at the sight of Tae-hyun and the half-built Temple of Archisus, turning on their heels and fleeing for their lives.

"......"

"......"

The players who had been constructing the Temple of Archisus wore expressions of utter bewilderment. What on earth had they just witnessed?