Chapter 237
Chapter 237
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Translator: crow
Chapter Title: The Fourth Middle East War (1)
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The shockwaves triggered by Korea's grain purchases soon ignited the Middle East's longstanding conflicts.
"We're going to launch a preemptive strike on those Israeli bastards?"
"The Jews have pulled off their 'preventive wars' multiple times—what makes you think we can't do the same?"
In Egypt, Syria, and elsewhere, arguments gained traction for redirecting the skyrocketing public discontent over bread prices outward.
Those pushing such talk were mostly from the military.
Even leaders of the Arab Federation, including Nasser, couldn't entirely resist the temptation.
In terms of timing alone, this was their last chance to start a war.
With the Soviets unilaterally entering disarmament, the balance of power was inevitably tilting toward the United States, Israel's backer, before long.
Time was on Israel's side, not the Arab Federation's.
Under this recognition, the Arab states resolved to open hostilities.
"The Jews' Day of Atonement would be the perfect time."
"They hit us during Ramadan, so there's no reason we can't do the same."
The Arab states' war discussions didn't escape Mossad's watchful eyes.
Israel had long embedded spies in high positions in Syria and other countries.
Israel's prime minister, Levi Eshkol, couldn't hide his dismay upon receiving Mossad's report.
"You're saying they're thinking of war when their domestic economy is in shambles?"
"That's right, sir. They've already set a date for the offensive and begun moving."
Levi Eshkol was a dove who prioritized diplomacy over war, but he wasn't so wedded to his beliefs that he could ignore an imminent threat.
"What does the military think?"
"We need to launch a preemptive strike before they move and neutralize the threat."
The military came out in favor of a "preventive war."
It was a perfectly logical position, as one might expect.
For a small country like Israel, with its narrow territory and sparse population, yielding the initiative to the enemy meant risking annihilation.
"The problem is justification, isn't it? If we strike first, international opinion will completely turn against us."
"We have no choice. If we give them the chance to strike first, the Arab Federation's overwhelming numerical superiority will give them the edge."
The prime minister understood the military's logic.
He too feared the Arab Federation's sheer size.
"No need to worry, sir. We'll wrap the war up in exactly one week."
"One week?"
"If we defend the Sinai Peninsula from Egypt while crushing Syria in one blow, the Arab Federation will have no choice but to beg for a ceasefire."
The military presented their prepared scenario for a preventive war.
With the geographic advantages of the Golan Heights and Sinai Peninsula already in hand, it wouldn't be hard for Israel to seize the initiative in the early stages.
"Under no circumstances can we allow a situation where nukes come into play."
"That won't happen."
"Very well. Prepare for war."
Israel's prime minister also resolved to go to war.
The difference was that Israel's opening of hostilities, having read the opponent's moves, would come much sooner.
The Israeli military chose August, when the fierce sun blazed down, as their D-Day.
To conceal their intent for a surprise attack, Israel didn't even issue mobilization orders to reserves.
Skirmishes along the border proceeded as usual.
But behind the scenes, they meticulously prepared for a lightning strike.
Israel's chief of staff, Moshe Dayan, personally inspected the positions around the Sinai Peninsula and Golan Heights, reviewing the operational plans.
Spies embedded in those countries also sent more intelligence than usual.
Few nations grasped Israel's intentions amid all this.
The only ones who saw through them were Korea and the United States.
Pyongyang had never taken its eyes off Israel, not even for a moment.
"Those guys are the type to cause trouble at any time."
Korea pieced together Israel's war preparations from various signs.
The first sign came from intelligence out of the Arab Federation.
"The Arabs are preparing for war?"
Given the Arabs' lax information security, Mossad couldn't possibly be unaware of their war intentions.
"Then the Israelis won't just sit around waiting."
Korea—Lee Seong-jun in particular—judged as much.
The second sign came from wiretapping and surveillance.
As soon as the KCIA obtained the Arabs' war intel, they redirected embassy surveillance assets to probe Tel Aviv's intentions.
"They're repositioning major units. Sure, they call it training, but this scale of movement is suspicious."
The decisive clue came from Eli Cohen, Mossad's high-level spy embedded in Syria.
Korea had known of Eli Cohen's existence from early on and kept him under watch.
"That guy's been getting busier lately."
"For him to move while risking detection in Syria, they must be prepping something big."
Through Eli Cohen's actions, Korea became convinced that Israel was gearing up for war.
So, how should they use this information?
"Obviously, we sit back and watch."
Everyone was taken aback by Lee Seong-jun's decision.
"Pardon?"
Having gone to the trouble of obtaining the intel, no one could understand why the prime minister would just let it go to waste.
"Think about it. What happens if we side with the Arabs here and stop their surprise attack?"
"Well..."
The nukes would fly.
Israel wasn't the type to go down quietly.
At the very least, they'd rattle the world with nuclear blackmail.
"You're saying Israel can't be backed into a corner."
"That's the basic picture."
Above all, Lee Seong-jun didn't want Israel destroyed.
As long as they held out in the Middle East, the Arab states would keep hating America.
In that sense, Israel was practically an ally aiding Korea's bid for hegemony.
Why wish for such a country's downfall?
"Even setting that aside, we need Israel to win if we want things to play out in our favor."
"Ah."
Only then did the others catch on to the prime minister's scheme.
If the Arab states suffered another crushing defeat at Israel's hands this time, what would they think?
Would they just grumble that they lost because they were inferior and accept the defeat?
That would spark immediate uprisings from discontented publics.
The Arabs needed a scapegoat to shoulder the blame for defeat.
And that scapegoat was the West.
Just sitting back and watching would make the Arabs hate the West—why bother intervening?
With such calculations, Korea opted to stand by.
In contrast, Washington couldn't view the Middle East war with Pyongyang's optimism.
"If the Israelis preemptively strike the Arab Federation, the picture gets very grim. The Arabs are already frustrated enough to consider nationalizing their oil."
"I'll exchange messages with Prime Minister Levi Eshkol."
Kennedy decided to persuade Israel's prime minister directly.
But the supposedly moderate Israeli leader didn't yield easily to U.S. persuasion.
"Sir, this is a matter of Israel's survival. If we hesitate here, we'll end up sunk in the Mediterranean. How can you ask us to hand the initiative to the enemy?"
"We'll mediate. Trust Washington and take just one step back—we'll give you a satisfactory resolution."
"We can't rely on promises alone. If you truly want to stop our preventive war, sign a mutual defense treaty."
"A m-mutual defense treaty? That's out of the question."
He absolutely couldn't agree to that.
It would not only ruin Middle East diplomacy but leave Washington leashed to Tel Aviv.
Even Kennedy, green as he was, knew that much.
"If that's not possible, we'll have no choice but to act in self-defense."
Levi Eshkol stuck to the line that without a mutual defense treaty, Israel wouldn't back down from war.
"If Tel Aviv acts on its own, we won't have Israel's back."
"Even without the president's concern, sir, we can handle it ourselves."
Despite Kennedy's warnings, Israel showed no sign of retreat.
"These people are so belligerent."
He couldn't persuade the Arab side either.
They were preparing for war in their own way.
Reaching out unnecessarily could lead to the misconception that America was applying "pressure," only embarrassing Washington.
"What happens if war breaks out like this?"
The president couldn't help but consider the worst-case scenario.
"There's no doubt Israel will hold the advantage for the first week of fighting. If it turns into a short war as the Israelis claim, Tel Aviv will score another overwhelming victory like in the Third Middle East War."
"No chance of it dragging on?"
"Of course there's a possibility of prolongation. The Israel Defense Forces aren't built for a slugfest against a vastly larger foe. Their troops are too few to occupy the sprawling Arab Federation. If the Arabs show real resolve to fight to the end, avoiding a protracted war will be tough."
"If the Arabs show resolve."
It wasn't impossible.
During the Suez War, the Arabs had displayed that exact kind of desperate determination.
If the war somehow dragged into a prolonged phase, America might pay a steeper price than anticipated.
"Sir, since things have come to this, why not consider backing Israel? It might end up being the cheaper option."
"I'll think it over."
Kennedy pursued diplomatic solutions to the end, but with Israel refusing dialogue, he had no choice.
While Washington wavered, the deadline for war approached.
As the sands of the hourglass ran out, Kennedy finally made a reluctant decision.
"As long as the Soviets stay out, so will we."
After much deliberation, Washington's conclusion matched Pyongyang's.
Stand by and watch.
Amid the superpowers' inaction, Israel blew the trumpet for the start of war.