Zuckerberg’s Desperate Counterattack
Monday morning.
As usual, Seohee and I were sitting in the back seat of a taxi.
Since it was Monday, we were going to school together.
With a soft screech, the taxi came to a smooth stop in front of the gate of Seohee’s high school.
"Oppa, I’m off!"
"Yeah. Study hard. Be good to your friends. And don’t leave any of your school lunch behind—eat well."
After I said that, I worried it might sound a little like nagging.
"Hehe, okay! I’ll study hard, be good to my friends, and finish my school lunch! See you this weekend!"
But if anything, Seohee seemed to like it. She gave a cheerful wave, opened the taxi door, and hopped out.
She was my little sister, after all, but she really was a sweet one.
The moment she got out, she naturally blended in with her other friends.
Unlike me, Seohee really did seem to have a gift for being social.
'Good personality, good grades, pretty too. I guess that’s only natural.'
In a way, she was the kind of girl who might invite jealousy, but Seohee didn’t seem to be the type to stir it up.
If anyone ever got jealous and tried to hurt her... well, I’d handle that when the time came.
I watched my sister’s receding back for a moment, then told the driver, "Driver, take me to Hankuk University."
* * *
The taxi started moving again.
Leaning back in my seat with my eyes closed, I asked Zero, 'Zero.'
「Yes, Master.」
'How many downloads has Moment gotten so far?'
Zero answered at once.
「As of now, it has exceeded 16.9 million.」
'16.9 million, huh.'
I’d heard it had passed 15 million last night, and in just that short span it had climbed by nearly another 2 million.
'The download growth is speeding up.'
「That is correct. Given the nature of social networking services, once they pass a certain threshold, growth becomes exponential.」
Zero laid out the analysis.
「Fear of missing out—anxiety over being left behind because everyone around you is using it while you are not—has kicked in. In particular, among European football fans and American trendsetters, Moment has already become an essential app.」
'Hmm.'
「However, because smartphone penetration itself still has limits, there will eventually be a plateau.」
'Still, once smartphone penetration rises, Moment downloads will keep climbing too, right?'
「Exactly.」
The pace was certainly satisfying. But it was too early to be satisfied.
My goal wasn’t just to make a popular app. I wanted a platform that would dominate the world.
'At this rate, when do you think we can overtake Facebook?'
「Facebook currently has about 200 million users across PC and mobile combined. It would be physically difficult to surpass that number in the short term.」
Zero’s cold analysis continued.
「Moment is, fundamentally, a mobile-only app. As I mentioned, smartphone penetration worldwide is still low, so the size of the market itself is inevitably smaller than Facebook’s.」
'Right.'
That was an unavoidable limitation.
Facebook could be joined by anyone with a computer, but Moment required a smartphone.
「But real market share is a different matter.」
Zero added,
「Gradually, Facebook users will become ghost members—accounts left behind but no longer active. The real social networking activity, uploading photos and checking friends’ updates, will take place on Moment, where mobile access is overwhelmingly superior.」
I nodded.
Just like Cyworld before it, any social network that fell behind the trend would eventually go into decline.
「Facebook will try a range of defensive strategies to prevent user loss, but it will not be easy to close the gap in both technical capability and sensibility that has already opened.」
'...'
「In fact, there is a good chance they will make a major mistake while trying too hard to imitate Master. If that happens, they may be overtaken far sooner than expected.」
Mark Zuckerberg making a mistake?
The genius who founded Facebook while at Harvard and then dropped out?
'A major mistake, meaning... what exactly?'
「Launching a new service in a hurry without adequate preparation.」
* * *
Sunday evening, Facebook headquarters in the United States.
Even though it was Sunday night, the lights in Facebook’s conference room were blazing.
The air was heavy, and the faces of the executives and engineers around the conference table were grim.
"Let’s hear the report."
At the COO’s sharp voice, the head of the data analysis team swallowed hard and stood.
"As I reported before... immediately after the launch of Moment, Facebook’s daily active user traffic dropped by about 4 percent in a short period. The problem is that it hasn’t stopped there. Traffic in the United States is down 8 percent, and in Europe it’s plunged by as much as 11 percent."
The room stirred.
A double-digit drop. This wasn’t merely a crisis; it was something that could force the company to change course.
Everyone in the room knew it, but the data analyst continued with the remarks he had prepared.
"To put it simply, users are spending an average of thirty minutes less on Facebook than they were last week. If you convert that across the entire user base, that’s 150 million hours of traffic vanishing in one week. We don’t have a precise tally yet, but if we calculate revenue based on ad impressions... well."
"You’re saying nearly four or five million dollars went up in smoke. Maybe more."
"...Yes."
The room grew even heavier.
There was no phrase that struck at a company’s bones quite like money lost.
"In the United States, Hollywood stars and other artists, and in Europe, football clubs treated almost like religion, are switching over to Moment one after another. Once they leave, the ordinary users who follow them naturally start leaving Facebook too—"
"Enough."
An executive waved a hand and cut him off.
It was the kind of story that only made people’s stomachs hurt to hear.
"We’ve already heard the trend analysis, so skip it. What’s the plan? How far along is the filter feature we were preparing?"
At that question, the tech lead’s shoulders flinched.
"The in-house designers and engineers have been working around the clock together, but...".
"So?"
"Implementing what you might call an ‘emotional, universal filter’ that looks good on every photo is... not as easy as it sounds. I’ve tried it myself, and the difficulty is really high. Especially trying to match Moment’s level...".
"Cut the excuses. I asked how far along it is."
Pressed by the executive, the tech lead let out a sigh and pointed at his laptop.
"...I’ll show you first."
Clack.
The tech lead hit the spacebar with visible lack of confidence.
An image appeared on the large screen.
On the left was a plain, unedited photo of Niagara Falls.
It was undeniably a beautiful photograph.
On the right was the same Niagara Falls photo with three filters applied by Facebook’s development team.
"These are the Sepia, Vintage Blue, and Sunset filters."
Silence fell over the conference room.
It was instantly clear why the tech lead had sounded so unsure.
The photo on the screen...
"...What is this?"
The executive’s brow furrowed deeply.
"It looks like someone slapped cheap cellophane over the picture. Or maybe like you’re looking at it through sunglasses."
At that, the tech lead lowered his head all the way.
Because it was a perfectly accurate assessment.
Facebook’s filters didn’t improve color or create atmosphere.
They just looked crude, as though someone had forced a red or blue film over the top of the image.
The best designers and engineers had stayed up all night to make them, but with the current state of the technology, this was the limit.
"What happens if we apply Moment’s filter to that Niagara Falls photo?"
Clack.
The tech lead hit the spacebar again.
As the screen changed, sighs broke out all around the conference room.
— Haah...
— ...Hoo.
— ...Beautiful.
— So it is.
They had to admit it.
It was clearly the same photo of Niagara Falls.
But the result after Moment’s filter was on an entirely different level.
With a proper vignetting effect darkening the edges, the raw force of the waterfall was subtly emphasized.
It had the depth and atmosphere of a photo taken and retouched by a professional photographer.
Anyone could see that Facebook’s filters looked like toys, while Moment’s filters looked like art.
— ...
— ...
— ...
— ...
— ...
— ...
No one could say anything.
But the heavy silence and long, weary breaths said everything for them.
They were outclassed.
They had been completely defeated, both in technical skill and in taste.
In that atmosphere, the team lead spoke carefully in a barely audible voice.
"I’m sorry. But we’re still in the development stage... if you give us a little more time, we can get it to Moment’s level of quality."
At that, Mark Zuckerberg, who had been sitting with his back turned to the room and his eyes fixed only on the screen, finally spoke.
"Team lead. How far along is the UI redesign plan?"
"Huh? Ah, the UI? That’s... we’re trying to keep the interface familiar to existing Facebook users while making the colors and layout a bit more modern and upscale...".
"I’m asking how far along it is."
Zuckerberg cut him off.
Usually he didn’t interrupt people like that in meetings. As a young CEO, he was the kind of person who, for the most part, would listen all the way through to the practical opinion.
The fact that he was cutting people off like this was proof enough that he was under serious pressure.
Because his chair had a high back, no one could see his face or his eyes, but the sharpness in his voice could not be hidden.
The employee who caught on swallowed hard and answered at once.
But even now, there was no confidence in his voice.
"To be honest, we still haven’t settled on a clear direction. We’re trying to preserve the identity of Facebook while also capturing that simple, premium feel that Moment has, and there are a lot of conflicting elements... but if you give us a little more time...".
"We don’t have that kind of time."
Creaaak.
With a sigh, Zuckerberg stood from his chair and turned around.
His eyes looked hollow, like he hadn’t slept in days.
"If traffic has fallen 8 percent in the United States, then by rough calculation Moment’s traffic is already about 16 percent of Facebook’s. That’s both the traffic they’ve stolen from us and the new traffic they’ve created on their own."
"... "
"And that’s in less than a month since launch. The pace of that loss is only going to accelerate. If they take 30 percent... no, even 20 percent, it’s irreversible. Once users leave a platform, getting them back is almost impossible. It’s not as if we can run an event saying, ‘Post on Facebook and get ten dollars.’"
He was right.
No matter how much Facebook was the world’s best social network, it was still a company that spent more than it earned.
It was making revenue of its own, yes, but it still relied on outside investment to cover server costs and payroll.
You couldn’t hold users in place with money.
So they had to compete with service alone.
But they didn’t have enough time to build that service.
That was Facebook’s miserable reality.
'...Feels like we’ve gone right back to startup days.'
That was what Zuckerberg was thinking to himself as he pointed at the screen and said,
"The photos being uploaded to Moment these days are mostly filtered, right?"
"That’s correct. We estimate it’s over 80 percent."
"Then let’s put the UI redesign on hold for now. Focus on rolling out the filter first. By today... no, by 6 p.m. tomorrow, finish the final adjustments and tighten the details. Then by 7 p.m., apply the high-resolution upload patch, and once that’s in, we’ll add our own filter feature right away."
— ...!
At Zuckerberg’s instructions, the executives exchanged looks.
If it had to be by 6 p.m. tomorrow, that left barely twenty-four hours.
In such a short time, it would be hard to expect a dramatic improvement in quality. Of course, staying up all night would make things a little better, but it wouldn’t be enough to close the fundamental gap.
"Mark, but in one day...".
Someone began to protest, then trailed off.
Understanding what was meant, Zuckerberg shook his head and said,
"I know what everyone’s worried about. You think we’re not ready yet. I know the quality isn’t enough."
He paused and looked around the room.
"But that’s how Facebook started in the first place."
— ...
"When we first served only the students in Harvard dorms, when we expanded to the Ivy League, and when we opened the service to the general public, we were never perfectly prepared. We opened first, looked at user reactions, gathered feedback, and adjusted in a better direction by taking the hits as we went."
Zuckerberg drew in a deep breath and made his decision.
"So this time too, even if it isn’t perfect, we need to provide something new. The priority is to show users that we have filters too, and minimize traffic leakage."
— ...
"We may be fighting for supremacy in social networking right now. Until now there has been no real competition, but a powerful rival has appeared. We cannot be late, we cannot back down, and we cannot lose."
No one could help agreeing with that.
Even if you pursued perfection and lost all your users, it would mean nothing.
They couldn’t afford to lose any more traffic.
Zuckerberg clapped his hands once to rally the staff’s motivation.
"It’ll be hard, but let’s push through. We just have to get past this crisis. Moment will have server costs to worry about too."
— ...
"If anyone needs anything while working on this project, come find me in the office anytime. I won’t be leaving until the next update is deployed either."
— Yes, sir! Understood!
If the CEO himself was going to stay up all night, the employees couldn’t exactly sit on their hands.
With Zuckerberg’s speech, the staff seemed to recover at least some of the confidence they had lost.
The pride of We are Facebook, We are the world’s best social network, Who do you think we are? We’re America’s finest geniuses lit up their eyes again.
But.
There was one crucial fact that Zuckerberg and Facebook’s geniuses were overlooking.
The situation was no longer the same.
In the past, Facebook had been able to succeed even with a clumsy service because Facebook was the only one of its kind, with nothing that could replace it.
Even if it lacked polish and had bugs, users had no choice but to use Facebook.
But now it was different.
Now Moment stood there as a perfect—perhaps even more than perfect—substitute.
Trying to force out a sloppy update when the comparison was so obvious.
They still didn’t know it, but that would turn out to be the worst possible move.
* * *
The next morning.
I was getting dressed for school and looking in the mirror.
It was a school-morning routine no different from usual, but Zero’s one sentence changed the situation.
「Master, Facebook’s update was just rolled out.」
'An update, huh...'
I stopped halfway through putting on my coat.
Zero had warned me before.
In order to break out of its crisis, Facebook would imitate the core features of Moment: high-resolution uploads and filters.
'I’m a little nervous.'
Honestly, it would be a lie to say I wasn’t worried.
Facebook was a collection of the world’s top genius engineers.
If they set their minds to copying me, they’d definitely come back at me with serious quality.
At the same time, their speed surprised me.
That massive company had made its decision and finished the update already.
'The high-res and filter update you mentioned before?'
「Yes.」
'Hmm...'
I set the bag I’d been packing on top of my desk and sat down in the chair.
I should have been hurrying; class time was closing in. But what mattered more right now was the competition’s next move.
'Bring it up on the laptop. Let’s see how they updated it.'
Pop.
The laptop screen lit up, and Facebook’s main page appeared.
At first glance, the screen itself—the UI—hadn’t changed much.
It was still the familiar blue top bar and white background.
'But the photos definitely look higher resolution.'
I scrolled through the feed and checked the photos people had uploaded.
They had definitely changed.
They hadn’t fully caught up to the overwhelming image quality of Moment.
But the blurry smearing and broken pixels from before had improved quite a bit.
'The quality has come a long way. They really put in the work.'
I had to give them that.
But what I really wanted to check was something else.
'But if they suddenly raise the quality of every photo like this, server costs are going to skyrocket. They can’t have developed a short-term algorithm to minimize file size.'
「Correct. Facebook is currently pursuing a strategy that is effectively cutting into its own flesh.」
That was good news for me.
No matter how much it was Facebook, money was money.
Time was tilting in my favor.
'Zero, find me the photos with filters applied too. That’s the key part.'
「Understood.」
Zero changed the display and brought up posts with the updated filter function applied.
I was tense.
If Facebook’s filters were anywhere near Moment’s—no, even if they were only roughly similar—it would still be a major threat.
But the moment I saw the photos with Facebook’s filter applied...
"...?"
I was startled, then burst out laughing before I could stop myself.
"Pfft..."
I covered my mouth and looked at the monitor again.
'...Zero, this isn’t a bug, is it? They seriously released that as a filter?'
The photos on the screen were pitiful.
It just looked like someone had crudely slapped red and blue cellophane over the original image.
Or like looking at a dim, overcast day through sunglasses.
'They just changed the color of the photo.'
Of course, Facebook’s designers and engineers had probably stayed up all night struggling to make it.
But if I judged it coldly, as a user...
'It’s lame.'
No one would use a filter like that.
It made a perfectly good original photo look uglier, so why bother using it at all?
I wiped the smirk from my face and calmly sorted out the situation.
'The filters are lousy, but Facebook’s support for high-resolution uploads is definitely a threat.'
If the filters were bad enough, people could simply ignore them.
But if high-resolution uploads were supported, there would be users who’d stay on Facebook instead of moving over to Moment.
And above all, Facebook had just shown its hand without saying it outright.
'This is a declaration of war.'
They had openly declared war on my Moment. They had copied my core feature.
'Of course, if you think about causality, I did strike first.'
It was me who had hit them with Clear Cam, saying, “Do you want to upload your photos to Facebook’s low quality? Moment uploads photos more beautifully!”
But what could I do?
That’s how life works: when I punch Facebook, it’s strategy. When someone punches me, it’s provocation.
And now Facebook had drawn a fist to hit me.
So I couldn’t just sit still and take it.
'And just like that, Facebook made me a very tasty weapon.'
I grinned at the clumsy filter photos on my laptop screen.
'Zero. Let’s make an official Another Technology account on Moment.'
「Yes, Master. How would you like to use the account?」
'Simple. We compare them.'
I tapped the desk with my fingers.
'Pick any one photo, then make a post comparing the same image with Facebook’s filter and Moment’s filter side by side. Then push it through the algorithm and blast it out to Moment users. Make it instantly obvious how trendy Moment is, and how old-fashioned Facebook is by comparison.'
This would probably make Facebook—especially Zuckerberg—genuinely furious.
A tiny startup daring to mock Facebook so openly.
But I didn’t care.
The difference in technical skill was obvious, and I was confident.
I stood up and slung my bag over my shoulder.
Then, all of a sudden, an even better idea struck me.
'No. I told you to pick any photo comparing Facebook’s filter and Moment’s filter, right?'
「Yes.」
'If we’re doing it, let’s use a photo of Facebook headquarters.'
If you’re going to go to war, you might as well do it properly.
What better way to taunt the enemy than to dress up their own base beautifully with my weapon?
'I’m the one who started this fight, but Facebook is the one stepping up to challenge me, so I should crush them hard while I have the chance.'