The Match Day
In the United States, in a conference room at Facebook headquarters.
Like Google and other IT companies, Facebook was, by nature, a fairly freewheeling place.
There were no rules about what to wear to work, and they were so open about hours that they practically said, “Just get your work done, and come and go as you please.”
And yet even Facebook felt unusually grave today, with a heavy silence hanging over the conference room.
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Inside the tightly shut conference room, Facebook’s key executives and engineers sat staring at the screen with serious expressions.
“……We have no choice but to admit it.”
Chris, Facebook’s vice president in charge of services, spoke at last in a bitter voice.
The screen he was looking at displayed an app set against a sleek, dark background.
It was Moment, the SNS released by Another Technology.
On the screen, from glittering Hollywood party photos to ordinary people’s emotional snapshots of daily life, everything was being uploaded in high resolution.
“If you look at the data…….”
The head of the data analysis team let out a weary sigh and held up the report he had brought.
“Over the last weekend, over a precise span of seventy-two hours, Facebook’s traffic dropped by 4.2 percent. Meanwhile, during that same period, the number of new downloads for Moment skyrocketed exponentially. There’s no other explanation except that our traffic has gone there.”
“……Our traffic dropped by four percent?”
‘Traffic down 4 percent.’
Some people might think that was nothing, but in SNS, declining traffic meant declining revenue—and more importantly, it meant you were no longer leading the trend.
For Facebook, that was a potentially fatal wound.
“What’s even worse is the user segment that left. The platform’s most influential heavy users, along with the trendsetters in their teens and twenties, are walking out.”
The analyst brought up another set of figures on the screen.
[#NotFacebookButMoment]
[#FarewellFacebook]
[#FollowMeToMoment]
“These hashtags are currently dominating the real-time trends inside Facebook. In other words, a movement to leave us is happening on our own platform.”
“Haaah.”
A chorus of groans filled the room.
This was humiliating. It meant users now treated Facebook as little more than a transfer platform on the way to Moment.
“So why are users moving to Moment? Just because the photos look prettier?”
“At first it was something that minor, but the reason has changed a bit now.”
“Changed how?”
“The perception has taken hold that Moment is the trend.”
The marketing executive added gravely, “Paris Hilton, Britney Spears, Lindsay Lohan…… Hollywood stars everyone recognizes by name have started boasting about using Moment, and fans are following them there. Especially the stars close to Paris Hilton—they’re going wild. They’re uploading photos to Moment several times a day.”
“…….”
“And ordinary users who used to just browse celebrity photos and posts are now actively uploading their own on Moment. Unlike Facebook, where any photo you post gets processed beautifully, Moment makes everything look good no matter what you upload…… so the vast majority of people who used to be too embarrassed to post their own pictures have started uploading them with confidence, trusting the filters.”
“Hmm…….”
At the marketing executive’s words, another wave of sighs rolled through the room.
Then, one by one, opinions began to come out.
“If we leave this alone, it’ll become dangerous. We need to cut it off at the roots.”
“Let’s acquire it.”
“Before it gets any bigger, let’s just buy the company outright and absorb it into Facebook’s features.”
“We’ll have to worry about antitrust law, but we can probably handle that with lobbying.”
“Losing 4 percent of our traffic in just three days…… that’s seriously fatal. We need a solution fast.”
“An acquisition is probably the surest way, even if it’s not easy.”
When a competitor became threatening, you bought them with money.
It was the most reliable method, and the law of survival in the IT industry.
But the chief financial officer in the room poured cold water on that idea, shaking his head.
“An acquisition isn’t possible.”
“Not possible?”
“Yes. As you all know, Apple already tried to acquire Another Technology for one billion dollars. Before Moment was released.”
The executives went, “Ah,” and fell silent.
The CFO went on, “But Another Technology supposedly rejected that offer without even giving it a second look. Well…… the rumor that they didn’t even glance at a one-billion-dollar acquisition offer is probably just that—a rumor. In reality they likely agonized over it, but the fact remains that they turned it down.”
“…….”
“And now Another Technology has launched a powerful service called Moment, so if we want to buy them, we’d have to pay far more than one billion dollars. In the worst case, Apple could hear about our attempt and jump in.”
“Then we could end up in a spending war with Apple.”
“Exactly. But we can’t beat Apple in pure financial muscle.”
They couldn’t buy it, and at the same time, traffic was being stolen in real time.
They were trapped.
“Then what if we just ban the keyword ‘Moment’ on Facebook altogether?”
“If we do that, it’ll only spread the rumor even more.”
“Still, at least it would stop Facebook from being used as Moment’s advertising channel, wouldn’t it?”
“Or maybe we could just block the Moment download link.”
As the discussion continued in circles, one man at the head of the table—the founder of Facebook, Mark Zuckerberg—said nothing. He just stared intently at the screen.
“…….”
Then Zuckerberg, wearing his trademark flat, pensive expression, looked at the Moment interface on the screen and said, “Focus.”
At that low, quiet line, the noisy conference room fell silent in an instant.
Every eye turned toward him.
Under the executives’ gaze, Zuckerberg slowly rose from his seat.
Then he walked up to the screen.
“From my perspective, Moment’s core strengths are two things. First, the high resolution they preserve even at the cost of server expenses. And second, the filters that make ordinary daily life look beautiful. As for how exactly the startup Another Technology is covering those server costs…… I’m not entirely sure, but it’s probably from the profits of Crazy Bird. Anyway—”
Zuckerberg continued, “The psychology of people who post or consume content on social media is simple. They want to stay where they look prettier and where their life seems cooler.”
“…….”
“And Moment is technically satisfying that vanity perfectly. It’s a troublesome competitor, without question. If we could acquire it, easy. But if we can’t…… then we take it from them.”
Zuckerberg’s eyes sharpened.
“Set up a task force immediately. Analyze all of Moment’s filter technology and image-correction algorithms and apply them to Facebook.”
“…….”
“Don’t spare the server costs. If money is the problem, I’ll handle convincing the investors. And let’s lower our image compression rates and support high-resolution uploads. At the same time, develop filters identical to Moment’s—no, even more varied and aesthetic ones—and put them into the next update.”
“Are you saying…… we’re going to copy Moment?”
One executive asked cautiously, and Zuckerberg gave a faint snort.
“I’d prefer to call it benchmarking.”
“…….”
“And whether you call it copying or benchmarking doesn’t matter. We just need to win, by any means. In the end, people will use whatever SNS survives.”
At Zuckerberg’s words, the executives nodded.
At first, consumers might complain, “Facebook copied Moment!”
But so what?
Winning was what mattered.
“We still have one overwhelming weapon Moment doesn’t. That’s hundreds of millions of users. Moment is growing fast, yes, but we still have far more users. If we can give people the same satisfaction inside Facebook, they won’t bother moving over to Moment.”
As he sat back down, Zuckerberg added, “We keep our strength in social connections, but absorb Moment’s strength in visuals. Before they get any bigger, we’ll install their functions into Facebook and choke them off.”
At Zuckerberg’s decision, the executives nodded once more.
It was the most realistic—and the most Facebook—response possible.
“Starting today, it’s emergency mode. Four weeks. No, three weeks. Bring me a prototype.”
Facebook’s counterattack against Moment had begun.
* * *
The moment I heard Zero say that someone had accessed Moment from Facebook headquarters, the thought flashed through my head: Is Facebook spying on me?
Zero, reading that thought, said, “The probability of them ‘spying,’ as Master suspects, is very high. Tracking a competitor’s movements is basic practice in Silicon Valley.”
Zero went on, “Generally speaking, Facebook follows two patterns whenever a competing service appears. First, they ignore it, saying it won’t become a real rival. Then, if that competitor grows too quickly to ignore, they buy it for a huge sum.”
So that’s why Facebook acquired Instagram. The purchase price was one billion dollars, right?
“That is correct.”
One billion dollars.
It was a lot of money, sure, but I’d already heard an acquisition offer before, so I didn’t feel all that amazed.
Then would Facebook try to buy Moment? Like they did with Instagram?
“They will likely review it internally, but actually carrying it out will be difficult.”
Why?
“Because rumors are already spreading that Apple offered Another Technology one billion dollars to acquire it, and was turned down. Since that was before Moment launched, they’ll conclude that they’d need to offer more than that now, and decide it’s too difficult.”
They were going to refuse anyway, but part of me still felt a little regretful.
If Facebook had tried to acquire Another Technology, all sorts of interesting things might have happened.
No, wait. They probably wouldn’t just back off if acquiring us was difficult.
When I thought that, Zero replied, “Correct. Facebook can’t just stand still, because then its SNS throne would be taken away. That means it’s highly likely they’ll take a different approach.”
What kind of different approach?
“They will transplant Moment’s strengths directly into Facebook. In other words: a large-scale update, copying the features and improving image quality.”
…….
“Facebook is home to some of the sharpest minds in America. And Zuckerberg, in particular, is not merely a developer—he also has a very keen business sense. So if they can compensate for their weaknesses, it’s highly likely they’ll judge that Facebook, with its overwhelming user base, will eventually win.”
That was entirely possible.
In a situation like this, a normal startup would probably be terrified at the idea of a giant company taking their strengths away.
They might even run up first and say, “I’ll sell you my service. Just pay a decent price.”
But I was different.
I gave a short laugh.
Hah~.
So…… they think they can beat me?
For some reason, my competitive spirit flared.
I’d already planned to outpace Facebook eventually, but now that things had turned out like this, it felt different.
And in a way, this was also Moment’s crisis.
If Facebook quickly fixed its weaknesses, then with its existing user base alone, it could overwhelm Moment.
So I’d have to respond properly.
But if Facebook tries to match Moment’s image quality and filters with its own technology, wouldn’t the server costs be insane? They already have way more users than Moment, so their server expenses would be huge, wouldn’t they?
“That is an accurate analysis, Master. As you said, if Facebook attempts to follow Moment’s service, it will bear tremendous server costs.”
So they’re willing to take that risk and come at me. Maybe they think I’ll be unable to bear the server costs and give up.
“That is correct.”
But unlike Facebook’s assumptions, server costs were no burden to me at all.
Not only did I already have the data center provided by Seongsam Electronics, but even without that, Moment’s filter and image-quality algorithms were far superior, so the server load wasn’t all that severe in the first place.
On top of that, the money from Crazy Bird, FreeChat’s emojis, and Zero’s stock trades was piling up anyway.
Either way.
In the end, what I need to do is…… the exact same strategy Facebook is using.
According to Zero, Facebook planned to take Moment’s strengths in order to improve its own weaknesses.
So I, too, needed to take Facebook’s strengths in order to improve Moment’s weaknesses.
Namely, Facebook’s strength in user count.
I need to increase my user base fast before Facebook can improve its service.
I thought about it for a moment.
Growing Moment’s user base in America…… I think that worry is basically gone now.
Hollywood stars were already serving as voluntary promoters.
And the teens and twenty-somethings who followed them were flooding in.
Even without me ordering them to, ordinary users were creating emotional hashtags like #MyPhotoWithoutMyFace and #CoffeeOfTheDay, building a culture of their own.
Zero, what do you think?
“By my assessment as well, the North American market is close to being secured. Moment will spread faster than Facebook expects.”
Then the problem was the rest of the world.
America might be the largest market in the world, but dominating America alone wasn’t enough.
The reason Facebook was the world’s number one SNS was because it existed everywhere.
To truly crush Facebook, I’d have to scale globally too.
“I need to bring users from Europe, Asia, and South America to Moment too…….”
By design, Moment was an SNS optimized for smartphones rather than PCs.
But in Asia, except for Japan, smartphone adoption was still very low. South America was much the same.
Then the first target I should aim for is……
“Europe.”
Europe was a place with a culture and sensibility different from America’s.
Of course, Hollywood actors, singers, and other stars also had strong influence in Europe.
Why wouldn’t they?
But not as much as in America. In Europe there’s something more decisive than actors or singers.
One religion that transcends borders and drives everyone on the continent crazy, young and old alike.
“Soccer.”
The short word slipped from my mouth.
For Europeans, soccer wasn’t just a sport.
It was life, history, and pride.
It was a culture where grandfathers and grandsons cheered for the same team, and people asked to have their uniform put in their coffin when they died.
People who sincerely said things like, “If the team I support wins, I’ll die with no regrets.”
Zero, pull up the European data for Clear Cam and FreeChat. I want to see how much soccer-related content there is.
“Understood.”
Graphs and analysis reports appeared on the laptop screen.
Pop!
Just as I expected.
Soccer really is insanely popular.
Clear Cam’s beauty filters received overwhelming support from European women.
But among European men, the soccer filters were especially popular.
When they took a picture, the app would composite their clothing to resemble a famous club jersey or a national team uniform, and even transform the background—simple, but effective—into a soccer stadium.
Maybe because it’s Europe, women were using the soccer filter a lot too.
“That is correct. Also notable is that the range of subjects in the photos spans a very wide age group, from teenagers to people in their sixties.”
Zero added, “There are many posts in FreeChat showing that even older users without smartphones greatly enjoyed having their grandchildren take photos of them with the soccer filter and dress them in uniforms.”
As expected, if I wanted to break into Europe, nothing beat soccer.
But—
The problem is that Clear Cam’s soccer filter wouldn’t really fit Moment.
Clear Cam’s soccer filter leaned heavily toward fun.
It was for friends or family to laugh and say, “Wow, so this is what it’d feel like if I were really at a stadium.”
To put it a little more bluntly, it was basically a slightly childish play culture.
If I brought that straight over to Moment, it would fail.
Moment was fundamentally an SNS with style.
It was a place to show “me, but cooler,” “me, but worth bragging about.”
Uploading a soccer filter that clearly looked composited onto that space…… wouldn’t do.
“That’s right. As Master worries, it would ruin Moment’s atmosphere.”
Right?
“Yes. And sharing soccer-filter photos among friends is already a fading trend. Even though usage and sharing spike whenever there’s a match, it has still moved beyond the stage of being ‘trendy.’”
Hmm.
I nodded while listening to Zero.
And there was another fatal flaw.
Guys trading playful filter photos with other guys is fine. But no man wants to post a joke-filter photo on an SNS where women can see it.
Because, at the core, men want to look cool to women.
Even when they post goofy pictures with friends, what sits underneath that is the desire to show, “Look at me, I’m the cool guy with lots of friends.”
Women wouldn’t want to stay on an Moment where men were uploading pictures that made them look silly, either.
In short…… trying to get people to upload soccer-filter photos to Moment is likely to fail in a lot of ways.
“So the approach has to be different.”
I needed to use the huge fan passion around soccer, while still preserving Moment’s signature sense of elegance.
Men had to want to upload it, thinking, “I have to post this photo!” and women, seeing it, had to react, “Oh, that’s cool.”
The primal urge to show off to others.
And the sense of belonging to the team you love.
If I could package that into Moment in a way that didn’t look tacky, almost like an advertisement……
Then everyone in Europe will start using Moment.
And once those users gathered, they’d begin creating their own new trends, just like in America.
So there was only one thing I needed to do.
Give soccer fans their fix of euphoria—their so-called ppong.
Having finished thinking, I said to Zero, Zero, let’s prepare a new Moment filter targeted at European users. Put the match date and score in stylish lettering at the bottom of the photo, and make the background look grand depending on the weather and stadium lighting if they’re watching live. If they’re watching indoors, add a filter that fits that setting too.
“Initiating. First, what would you like to name the filter?”
The name was…….
Let’s call it “The Match Day,” meaning match day.
Whether at home, in a bar, in a stadium, or out on the street—if people were watching soccer.
Whether with friends, family, or lovers—if people were watching soccer.
I was going to make the whole world upload photos to Moment with the The Match Day filter applied.
If we have that, we can capture social media users in Europe in an instant.
And then Facebook would realize it too.
That there would be no way to shake me off, the one chasing after them.
But all they’d be able to do was watch.
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