The Strategic Wish
Fredrick Taylor II’s stern expression nearly cracked. Yoo Jae-won’s intense gaze, fixed solely on him, was unlike anything the old man had seen before. Where once the young man had seemed prematurely aged and calculating, now his reaction was raw and unfiltered.
“The estimated reserves stand at roughly 1.2 billion barrels. Compared to the tens of billions in the Middle East, it’s modest at best.”
One point two billion barrels? Jae-won, who had been listening closely, immediately doubted the figure. The site he had pointed Tiffany toward was one of the largest in American oil history. A field so vast that 1.2 billion barrels sounded almost trivial.
The reason he had been able to hand such a promising discovery to Tiffany so easily was simple: in his previous life, Chevron had developed this very field. Since Chevron would have extracted it anyway, letting his fiancée claim it twenty years early posed no risk.
“1.2 billion?” Jae-won assumed the discovery was too recent for accurate assessment. Feeling a twinge of disappointment, he converted the 1.2 billion barrels into dollars using the current Texas intermediate crude price he had checked on the way over—fourteen dollars per barrel. That came to 16.8 billion dollars.
But Fredrick Taylor II had not finished.
“The problem is that only one-hundredth of that—twelve million barrels—is economically recoverable. The shale formation is wide and shallow, making extraction extremely difficult.”
The already modest 1.2 billion barrels shrank to one percent of its size. At current prices, the recoverable value dropped to roughly 168 million dollars.
“Grandfather! When you put it that way, it sounds tiny,” Tiffany protested.
Yet the numbers were undeniable. Even at ten thousand barrels a day, the field would be exhausted in four years.
“Don’t be discouraged, Jae-won. The shale layer is rich in gas—far more gas than oil, in fact.”
“Even so, gas production would last ten years at most.”
Tiffany worked to emphasize the field’s value while Fredrick worked to downplay it. Grandfather and granddaughter remained close in private life, but in business neither yielded an inch.
Still, Jae-won noticed one shared assumption: both viewed shale as inherently problematic.
“If it’s buried wide and shallow, couldn’t we drill horizontally?” he asked, feigning ignorance.
“Horizontally?”
Fredrick chuckled. “Even my granddaughter’s fiancé doesn’t know everything. Look at any drilling rig—the force it can exert on the formation is strictly vertical.”
Jae-won nodded. Full-scale shale development would only begin once oil prices soared past one hundred dollars and speculative capital flooded in. Horizontal drilling, impossible by conventional means, would become feasible only with hydraulic fracturing—injecting water, sand, and chemicals under extreme pressure. He carried that knowledge in his Memory Palace as well, but the time to reveal it had not yet come. At fourteen dollars a barrel, the technology would find no support and might even be suppressed by oil-producing nations.
Countries that lived solely on oil exports had every reason to fear any innovation that could flood the market.
“In short, the field has high potential but poor economics. Still, discovering a new field is an achievement. It’s a pity it didn’t come in bigger from the start.”
Fredrick delivered his verdict. Jae-won felt the same regret. With current extraction technology, even a major find received only modest recognition. Fredrick seemed more disappointed that he could not yet teach Tiffany a proper lesson about early success leading to later failure.
“I can offer you two options. I’ll buy the twelve million economically recoverable barrels at today’s price immediately. Or I’ll purchase whatever you extract at the prevailing price each day.”
One was a bulk purchase; the other, daily spot trading. The advantage of the bulk deal was immediate cash. The buyer bore the risk of price swings—profit if prices rose, loss if they fell. Normally buyers offered below market, but Fredrick, as Tiffany’s grandfather, quoted the full market rate.
Tiffany turned to Jae-won. His share was involved, so she sought his opinion.
“I prefer the first option. But once the contracted twelve million barrels are extracted, we renegotiate the base price.”
Jae-won’s tone had grown slightly curt. Even after delivering one of the most significant American oil discoveries, Fredrick’s lukewarm reaction had stung.
“And with that money, let’s found a venture specializing in geological data analysis. Then all the fresh exploration data you want will come pouring in.”
Both Tiffany and Fredrick turned to stare at him. The point was not merely possessing data, but the ability to analyze and process it—an ability Jae-won had just proven.
Fredrick looked unconvinced by a single demonstration, but Jae-won knew better. The Nasdaq collapse had cooled the venture craze, yet Silicon Valley’s nightscape remained as vibrant as ever.
“Oh, that’s actually a wonderful idea!” Tiffany exclaimed. She had always harbored dreams of running her own business. Having watched her fiancé build an empire from a venture startup, she was naturally drawn to entrepreneurship. Jae-won’s words also forced her to reassess her own capabilities.
“Hmm.”
Oil companies would certainly be interested in the powerful analytical capacity Jae-won and Tiffany possessed. Even if the seven major players showed no interest, countless nations and firms still pursued oil development. Oil remained the lifeblood of civilization.
“I really can’t refuse you two anything.”
Fredrick finally surrendered, hands and feet both metaphorically raised. Though he grumbled at Jae-won, he clearly recognized that Tiffany’s achievement was extraordinary. That was why he had canceled his busy schedule to fly out.
“I’ll provide Tiffany with proper, real-world data from now on. And I’ll soon request a formal quote from you for a cloud-computing system.”
Along with his capitulation, Fredrick opened another hidden bundle. He would give Tiffany genuine data instead of test sets, and he offered Jae-won a concrete business opportunity in cloud computing.
“Grandfather, there’s one more thing you need to give Jae-won,” Tiffany reminded him, her memory sharp.
“Good heavens, my pockets are being emptied today. I haven’t forgotten that wish either. I’m not an omnipotent god, so tell me what you want—within reason.”
“I’ll tell you this evening, separately.”
Only Tiffany would have remembered. For Jae-won, that wish mattered more than oil payments or cloud-computing contracts. Thanks to her, he could raise the matter smoothly.
That evening, in the hotel’s sky lounge, Jae-won met Fredrick alone. Unlike during the day, laughter never left the old man’s face. Though the field’s economics were poor relative to its reserves, the simple fact that Chevron had found a new field was excellent news. The company’s stock had jumped four to five percent on the announcement. It had been a long time since the oil sector, long overshadowed by IT stocks, had seen such a surge.
Moreover, the discovery resulted not from luck but from cutting-edge IT technology—and not someone else’s technology, but that of his own granddaughter and her fiancé. Nothing could have pleased him more.
Texas broadcasters and national media had competed for interviews, giving Fredrick his first television appearance in years. Naturally, after the interviews came a celebratory dinner where he drank with genuine pleasure.
Recognizing the perfect moment, Jae-won sensed it was time to voice his wish.
“What? You want me to conduct a thorough audit? Alfred, did I hear that correctly?”
Fredrick repeated the request in disbelief.
“Yes, sir. The wish of Chairman Yoo Jae-won, Tiffany’s fiancé, is that Chevron conduct an extremely rigorous inspection of the LNG carriers currently under construction at the Kobe Shipyard.”
Alfred, who followed Fredrick like a shadow, recited the request word for word, even reproducing Jae-won’s emphatic tone on the word “extremely.”
Three LNG carriers ordered by Chevron were being built simultaneously at Mitsubishi Heavy Industries’ Kobe Shipyard. Progress was advanced enough that sea trials could begin by year’s end.
Chevron was not merely an exploration and production company; it handled refining and distribution as well—a fully integrated energy firm. It dealt in natural gas too. The vessels under construction in Kobe were meant to transport liquefied natural gas from the Middle East to the United States and other markets.
American law required that domestically produced oil and gas be consumed only within the United States, so exports were never considered. Natural gas had to be cooled to minus 162 degrees Celsius to liquefy, demanding far more sophisticated shipbuilding technology than ordinary vessels.
Korea’s shipbuilding industry was growing rapidly, yet it still lacked the expertise to win LNG carrier contracts. These were high-value products whose prices dwarfed those of bulk carriers, and Japan and Europe still held a monopoly.
“Inspecting the quality of the ships is only natural. But is this truly worth expending such a valuable wish on?”
“It is. If any defects are found, please respond firmly. I also recommend paying special attention to the properties of the steel plates and aluminum alloys. Finding problems during construction is far better than discovering them after delivery. Even if acceptance is delayed, the gas from Field 23 will more than cover any supply shortfall.”
Jae-won went so far as to list specific inspection points. The experienced Fredrick immediately recognized the sincerity in his voice. Yet he could not easily connect Jae-won’s desire for a meticulous check of the Kobe-built LNG carriers with whatever larger plan the young man intended for Japan.
Moreover, Jae-won’s tone suggested he was certain serious defects would appear. A seasoned businessman knew better than to make absolute predictions, and Jae-won seemed to understand that rule—except in this instance.
“Very well. A wish is a wish. I’ll grant it. Besides, today is a special day.”
Jae-won, who had been tense, relaxed at the casual acceptance.
“But later you must tell me exactly what this is all about. I can’t stand not knowing.”
“Of course. Even if I don’t explain, watching the news should make everything clear. I’ll give you the full story afterward, naturally.”
Jae-won’s plan was straightforward: target Japan. The more blows the Japanese economy suffered across multiple fronts, the better for him. A delay in the delivery of three LNG carriers would not cripple Japan, but it would remove a few bricks from an otherwise solid wall. If such damage accumulated and Japan’s reliability came into question, even the strongest economy could falter. That moment would be Jae-won’s perfect opening.
“You seem to be plotting something interesting. Just don’t overextend yourself. No one can predict how human affairs will turn.”
Fredrick offered advice born of experience. Jae-won nodded in agreement, though he had no intention of keeping the Japanese operation small. He intended to expand it as much as possible.
After enjoying their time in Texas, Jae-won and his party prepared to return the next day. Their route differed from expectations. Instead of flying back to San Francisco with Tiffany, Jae-won’s group boarded a separate flight bound for Washington, D.C.