The Crash Report
Szzzt~.
The start of my morning was a crisp Americano.
"Coffee's here!"
"Oh, I was just about to make some. Suho, well then, just set that down and the files too—"
"The files are ready right here as well!"
When I showed her the files loaded onto the office cart, the Juim broke into a wide smile and applauded.
"Wow. You did all of this by yourself?"
"This much is just the basics."
"Yay~ Suho, I can already see the makings of our Research Operations Team's ace. You've barely been here a month, and you're already knocking all of this out on your own?"
"Hehe. It's all thanks to having such a wonderful mentor."
"That's right? Heehee."
It was true I hadn't been with the Operations Team long. But after a few rounds of the routine, waking up at the crack of dawn, clocking in early, and setting up the meeting materials had become second nature.
"Suho, are you still keeping up with your studying?"
"Yes. Lately I've been digging through economic news nonstop—our own analysis reports, plus research from other brokerages too."
"Good. You never know when the Team Leader might ambush us with another pop quiz, so you have to stay sharp."
"Yes, ma'am."
After that day, the Team Leader never again asked me anything out of the blue the way she had before.
To put it precisely, she had gone completely cold on me.
Judging by everything, my report selection back then must have given her quite the shock. I had my reasons, so it wasn't fair—but what could I do?
Just as our angel of a mentor said, all I could do was do better next time.
"Oh, Team Leader! Good morning!"
"Good morning!"
"Yes, good morning."
As always, she was the first to step into the meeting room.
Last time she'd barely grunted a reply when I greeted her, but today there was something oddly knowing in her eyes.
Had something good happened to her?
"Good morning, everyone."
"Ugh. I rushed here as fast as I could, and I'm still later than the Team Leader."
"Everyone sit down quickly. We've got a lot to get through."
"Yes, ma'am!"
Soon the rest of the team filed in, and the busiest morning meeting on Earth kicked off.
"How much further are they saying the leisure sector will climb?"
"Our shop is projecting an additional upside of fifteen percent."
"And the other brokerages?"
"More or less the same. Most of them are pegging it at ten to fifteen percent."
"So it could hit the daily limit several days running, then."
"Yes. The momentum is anything but ordinary. It's still an unconfirmed rumor, sure, but reports keep trickling in from everywhere."
The whole room was in an uproar over the leisure sector. With rumors spreading that the Hallyu ban was about to be lifted, prices were climbing on pure anticipation.
I was scribbling notes without pause, terrified of missing even a single word. The Team Leader might fire another ambush question at me at any moment.
Wait—wasn't the report I picked back then also about the leisure sector?
What would you call this—a blind squirrel finding a nut?
Though honestly, that only happened because the stench was so unbearable.
In any case, no severe foul odor had hit me since that day. And that was the greatest relief of all.
One reason I loved this company was that I didn't have to wear a mask here. Some days it was easier to breathe at the office than at home, and the air seemed to carry a fragrance that made me feel inexplicably rich. I hoped I could stay at this company forever, and—
"Intern Kang."
"...Ah, yes!"
Oh no. My mind had wandered off.
"What do you think, Intern Kang?"
"Sorry?"
"The leisure sector, this time. You remember, don't you? It was the report you picked. Of course, the report itself wasn't about the Hallyu ban—but the leisure sector is rallying anyway. You do know how this works, right? Reports out of the Research Center value results over causes."
In other words, even if the cause cited in the report wasn't what actually moved the stock, as long as the predicted movement came true, the report earned high marks.
"What are you talking about? Intern Kang picked the leisure sector?"
"I did have him choose a report for me last time."
"And out of all of them, he picked the one where the leisure sector moons?"
Every team member in the meeting room turned to stare at me. The Team Leader crossed her arms and prompted me on.
"Give us your opinion, Intern Kang. Which report looks good this time?"
"Th-that's..."
I felt my heartbeat spike, my pulse quickening.
And in that instant—
Ugh.
The reports that had smelled perfectly fine moments ago began belching out a thick, rotten stench.
Not this again.
It was exactly like before. A wave of foul odors surged up all at once, punching through my nose and boring into my skull. One slip of focus, and I'd pass out cold on the spot.
I—I have to find it.
Instinctively, I started tearing through the reports. Like last time, if I could just find one clean report among them, everything would be fine.
And sure enough—like a single ray of hope—a fragrance that swept the stench aside was rising from deep within the pile.
I snatched up the report.
"...I'll go with this one."
The people in this room probably had no idea that cold sweat was running down my spine right now. That's how close to death I'd just come.
"Hmm?"
"No way. You actually picked this one?"
From the Team Leader down to the newest member, everyone tilted their heads and stared at me. Only then did I finally glance at the report's title.
[Leisure Sector Stocks: A Crash Scenario]
Pfft.
"Wh-what's so funny?"
"You're just too funny. Suho, are you, like, a hipster? I mean, when everyone else says YES, you say NO, and when everyone says NO, you say YES—it's got to be that, right?"
"..."
I had nothing to say. Even to me, I looked like a kid with terminal Hongdae syndrome.
"You saw how tense it got in there, right? My hands were shaking and my heart was pounding, and I still got chewed out. Everyone's saying the leisure sector is going to skyrocket, and you—alone—reach for the crash report? I didn't even know we had a report like that in the pile."
There were circumstances. The other reports reeked so badly I couldn't even bring myself to touch them. If I'd been a moment slower, those hideous fumes might have knocked me out cold.
Then again, maybe fainting would have been less painful.
"I'm definitely on the chopping block now, huh."
"Oh, completely."
"Ugh."
"Cheer up! At least you've been showing up every day and working hard, haven't you?"
The Juim was patting my back warmly, but it did absolutely nothing for my morale.
What on earth is wrong with me?
Why did the stench only flare up at moments like this? Right now, I smelled nothing at all. Was it because I got tense in the moment? If it hadn't been for that, I might have picked a normal report and rocketed straight into a full-time position!
The first time was luck, sure—but.
Lightning didn't strike twice, apparently.
"Our hipster intern. Would you go run some printouts for us?"
"Ah, yes, ma'am."
"You can manage it on your own this time, right?"
It was my first time handling a monster printer like this, and I'd suffered for days over it.
"Pfft. I could do it with my eyes closed now."
At this level, it was a cakewalk.
Stock investing is, at its core, strategy.
Bending probability to your side—that is the essence of an investment strategy.
Which is exactly why the Research Center exists.
Which strategy to build, which sectors to watch—the reports flowing out of the Research Center serve as lighthouses for investors.
"..."
And right now, those lighthouses were all shining their beams on a single spot.
The leisure sector.
Tourism and hotels in particular were riding a massive surge on rumors that the Hallyu ban would be lifted. Every brokerage in the country was shouting the same thing: join the rally before it's too late.
And this time, I picked the exact opposite, huh.
Kang Suho had chosen the leisure sector rally report everyone else had ignored, and his prediction had come true.
But it could very easily have been coincidence.
The problem was this: with Daeseong Securities and every other brokerage projecting a leisure sector rally, he had once again reached for the exact opposite.
[Leisure Sector Stocks: A Crash Scenario]
Analysts usually write their reports on the basis of two scenarios: a rally, or a decline. Even when an uptrend seems all but certain, they draft a report with the opposite case in mind.
And of course, since the Operations Team would filter out the junk anyway, most of these were pure filler.
This one had been exactly that—padding to hit a page count.
And yet Kang Suho had dug this particular report up from the very bottom of the pile.
Its argument was that the market is badly overinflated, and if the Hallyu ban lift turns out to be nothing but a rumor, a crash will follow...
The crux was the Hallyu ban itself.
The Chinese government had never officially announced that it would lift the ban. And conversely, it had never announced that it would maintain it, either.
That was the key point.
Rumors were certainly circulating that the ban might be lifted—but nothing was known about when. Whether it would be tomorrow, a month from now, or a year from now, only the Chinese government knew. And unless the Chinese government came forward and said so itself, people would keep bidding up leisure sector stocks on hope alone.
"What do you all think?"
After the meeting adjourned, Cheon Doa pulled in the staff covering the leisure sector for a separate discussion.
"The other brokerages know it, and so do we—there's a real chance the Hallyu ban lift is nothing but a rumor, isn't there?"
The brokerages all knew it might be a rumor. So why were they all still betting on the rally?
"In the end, the stocks are rising on expectation. And the Chinese government certainly isn't about to step up and helpfully confirm for us that the lift is a rumor."
That was what made expectation so terrifying. Nobody could say for certain whether a given catalyst was real or fake, so everyone was simply rolling the dice.
If the ban really was lifted, it would be a thrilling victory. But if it was fake?
Then, just as the report said, the crash would begin.
"Still, won't it keep climbing for at least a few more weeks? Bad as a long-term bet, but short-term, not throwing money in right now would just be stupid."
"If the rumor has spread this widely, the ban may actually be lifted. In which case, even as a long-term play, the leisure sector could be worth the money."
Cheaon Doa nodded. Just as the experts here said, the leisure sector would keep climbing for the time being. And if an official announcement confirming the ban's lift ever came, it would surge even higher.
"Even the media is covering the Hallyu ban lift positively. Which means there's a very high chance this isn't just a rumor."
"Understood. Then for the time being, we'll set our editorial line toward the leisure sector rally. Keep routing the report uploads that way too."
"Yes, ma'am. We'll get back to the research then."
"Thanks, everyone."
Her mind was finally at ease.
His first pick of the leisure sector rally report—and then this sudden grab for the crash report—could both be explained by the very same reason. It wasn't prediction at all. It was a wordless shove: I'm lazy, so leave me alone.
"The first one must have just landed on him by lucky chance."
This pick wasn't based on any precise data either. He'd clearly just grabbed something at random and shoved it forward.
"Why do I keep expecting weird things from him?"
It was probably the parachute's usual behavior that kept confusing everyone. A parachute should act like a parachute, a royal family brat should swagger around like he owned the place—yet here in the office, this parachute was grinding away like an intern who genuinely dreamed of a full-time contract.
That kept throwing people off.
"Ignore it."
She reminded herself once more. Either way, whether he was good or bad at the job, he was someone who'd lodge at the brokerage briefly before getting fast-tracked to headquarters, wasn't he?
"No time for stray thoughts."
Reports were flooding in in real time even now. She was working her way through them one by one when—
"...Hm?"
The watchlist stocks on her side monitor were moving strangely. She kept the sectors she was tracking pinned up there, and the leisure sector stocks had all flashed red at once, tumbling in unison.
"Wh-what is going on all of a sudden?"
The descent was so fast she wondered if the terminal was malfunctioning. The VI—volatility interruption—tripped frantically, but this was not the kind of crash a temporary trading halt could stop.
So that's what this was about.
Cheaon Doa soon pieced together the whole story.
The Chinese government had just issued a statement—far from lifting the Hallyu ban, it was tightening it further.
And at that very moment, one thing caught her eye.
[Leisure Sector Stocks: A Crash Scenario]
"!?"
The report the parachute had pulled. Right now, the leisure sector stocks were crashing—precisely as that report's title promised.
How on earth had that man known?
The first time, fine—you could write it off as luck. But twice in a row?
Cheaon Doa shot up from her seat.
"Where's Intern Kang Suho right now?"
"Ah, Suho? He's just over there—"
Her gaze swung to where the employee was pointing.
There, in front of the printer, a man was wrestling with the machine and groaning under his breath.