Preempting the Yankees: The Philippine Blitz
War doesn't change. America was bound to occupy the Philippines and flex its muscles across the Pacific. No need for me, the Supreme Leader, to spell it out—the Japanese brass already knew it deep down. The anti-Spanish propaganda raging in the U.S. press made it obvious. "Free Cuba!" Naturally, that included the Philippines too. The problem? We knew it, but what could we do about it? Up until now, if America wanted something, we'd just had to let them have it. Even without the Katsura-Taft agreement yet, that's how it had gone.
But maybe—just maybe—it didn't have to be that way. I laid out the evidence right in front of these power brokers. And that's why they'd gathered here today to respond.
Ito Hirobumi, the prime minister who'd resigned without imperial approval. Mutsu Munemitsu, who'd assassinated Empress Myeongseong on my orders, not some fluke. Inoue Kaoru, who'd helped me modernize the Treaty of Ganghwa alongside me. Oyama Iwao, the Army Minister. Saigo Tsugumichi, the Navy Minister. And finally, Yamagata Aritomo, the Justice Minister and hardline Korea hawk—the biggest potential roadblock of them all.
These were the real power players of Japan, no question. The gravity of the matter hung in the air like a tension thicker than fog, not quite fear, but close.
Without a word, I slid forward fresh intel on the escalating U.S.-Spain standoff. I didn't know the exact year, but I knew war was coming between them soon. So I'd investigated. This was the result.
"This might be our last chance to liberate the Philippines."
"And if we do it, we have to strike before the U.S.-Spain war erupts."
"Only then can we claim the Philippines' liberation for ourselves."
"If America gets involved, they'll demand sovereignty over the islands, just like always."
"Everyone here knows a war with America is impossible. Negotiations would be tough too."
I stepped back, letting my words sink in.
Ito, my equal in stature, spoke first. "Even if we beat Spain, would Britain approve? America?"
"Probably not."
"And we do it anyway?"
"Britain and Spain aren't on good terms. They might not approve outright, but they'd turn a blind eye."
"The real key is America."
"America avoids direct clashes with Britain."
"And with us?"
"We're under Britain's protection right now."
Where was the British fleet anchored these days?
"So now's the perfect moment? Isn't that too risky?"
"America's claiming Spain's enslaving Filipinos with forced labor."
"If we frame it as a war to end slavery and free the Filipinos, neither America nor Britain can jump in quickly."
"So we have the justification. And the timing."
"Above all, if Britain and America tell us to back off, we can."
"...?"
"We just hand over sovereignty—guns and all—and drive the Spanish out of the Philippines."
"Leave it a power vacuum, and that's victory. In the name of 'Filipino liberation.'"
"Easy win, solid pretext, perfect window. I get that much. Everyone here does too."
(Nods all around. Spain losing was common knowledge in this room.)
"But the benefits? That's where we disagree."
"Risking Europe's wrath for one lousy island? Reckless."
"The Korea hawks... Your Supreme Leader has sharp ears, huh? If you're right, Japan attacking Europe puts us right under the yellow peril knife."
I paused, composing myself. "Aren't we already?"
"Right now it's just talk. Dismissed as the emperor's ravings. But if Japan seizes the Philippines?"
They'd face a barrage of smears, no doubt. But that was the point.
"Would Britain and France be thrilled if we handed it to America?"
"Threatens their China trade?"
"Germany and Italy might stomach it, but America's too big."
"Exactly—they won't give us an opening to intervene. Japan, though? We've already got China in our sphere."
"No one welcomes a new giant crashing their carved-up market."
"So this is a holy war for Filipino freedom—and a defensive battle to protect Japan's interests."
"And only now, while Britain still eyes East Asia, Spain holds the Philippines, and America hasn't gone to war yet."
"We liberate the Filipinos now, or America rules them."
"What if we wait till America declares war?"
"Then they'll aim to free Cuba and the Philippines. That clashes with us, and we can't negotiate with them."
"If it means fighting or bargaining with America, count me out."
"No pride, eh?"
"Yamagata!"
"You all know my shoulders carry too many lives. No room for folly."
"Fighting America is folly. I agree. But with America eyeing the Philippines now..."
"Does striking first serve the national interest?"
"Shouldn't Britain and France defend China trade? Mutsu-san?"
"Munemitsu's fine, as always."
"...Chest?"
"..."
"........."
"Britain and France won't step up. Both want America on their side."
"Especially against Spain—no need to even weigh it."
"But if we do, it's different?"
"Yes. If America ultimatum us and we withdraw, it challenges Britain, who guaranteed our independence."
"Flip it: America's encroaching on our turf. Then we negotiate."
"We could swiftly set up a Philippine autonomy body and pull back."
"Got it. Pioneer the Philippines, you mean."
"Exactly. If we develop it, America can't claim 'civilizing mission' to occupy."
"Only worry: Spain cedes to America mid-war as they lose."
Luckily, combat and occupation would be swift. Spain's Philippine fleet was pathetic, and the islands were landing spots everywhere.
"It's a race against time. Could miss the window tomorrow."
"That's why you're here personally."
"This matters to me too."
"Unlike ocean-spanning Japan, Korea's stuck with coastal trade."
"If another power grabs the Philippines and seals the sea, we might abandon maritime trade forever."
"That hands Russia and Qing—the mainland rivals—a massive boost."
"But if Japan links Taiwan, Philippines, Siam, India by sea, Korea trades safely inside."
"That's why I'm here. For this, I can make big promises."
Translation: Decide, and we'd back them big-time. Faces grew grave.
The Philippines—Japan had eyed it for years. Gold mines aplenty, more to come. If Korea just wanted sea lanes and coastal trade, it was worth a shot. Drag Korea to sea, and Japan gains leverage over us.
Under the banner of 'Filipino liberation,' Korea gets routes, Japan gets gold. Before America stirs. Perfect.
The silent Korea hawk Yamagata finally spoke. "If war, Japan stakes its fate. What does Korea stake?"
Tough question, but necessary. "Alliance. Credit. Our future."
That night, war was resolved.
A war for peace. In this Japan-vs-Spain conflict, Japan handled combat, Korea logistics. Core of the pact.
Korea issued massive bonds, funneled to firms for war goods, supplied Japan cheap. We'd held back on printing bonds to avoid suspicion, but war gave the perfect excuse—print away.
Cash-strapped companies claimed 'supplier' status, churning bonds like mad.
But contrary to fears, the war ended anticlimactically.
"KyaAAAAAHHH!"
Japanese battleships shelled; Spain's armored fleet sank to Dragon Palace. Game over for real fighting.
Spain hadn't even gotten the declaration—zero prep, zero response.
Yet Britain and France recognized this 'declaration-less declaration'—or 'declaration cannon' GO—as legit war start. Spain lingered in Philippine waters and South China Sea; Japan explained risks of America grabbing it. The powers bought it.
Neither was truly gentlemanly anyway—just wore the mask when convenient. If Japan did the dirty work, they'd nod.
Japan crushed Spain in a brief fleet clash. Chinese laborers from Korean transports occupied in just three weeks.
Spain's utter rout. Asia rising.
"Keep away from the yellow hordes!"
Europe erupted. Germany screamed 'yellow peril' daily; Spain wailed to public opinion, cheeks slapped.
But with Britain and France—who could dispatch fleets—already tacitly approving, Spain just cried.
America openly eyed Cuba; Philippines went dark under 'weird island monkeys.' Then a mystery signal: 'Philippines liberated.'
Planet of the Apes, basically.
Meanwhile, Britain and France urged peace talks. Peace? More like arson.
Italy's Ethiopia flop, now this—Latin nations' year of humiliation. With Southeast Asia ablaze, what was America doing?
America figured it'd mediate with Britain-France against Japan. Philippines was their plate. Unlike the Europeans, America needed it as a China trade hub.
Monkeys rampaging? Infuriating. Congress agreed: toss bananas.
Britain-France thought America-vs-Japan war was 'that serious?' But no duty to block mediation.
"Time to teach those island monkeys manners."
McKinley blustered publicly. Americans barely knew where Philippines was, but backed him.
Amid 'tactical Chinese' shipping out with bullets on some freighter, Manila hosted Japan, Britain, France, America, Spain. They birthed the 'Philippine Federal Republic,' paying Spain modernization reparations.
America, Britain, France, Japan co-guaranteed. If unpaid, reoccupy for settlement.
Thus, the newborn republic lost sovereignty at birth. No way a fresh republic had that cash...