The Dragon Must Remain Divided

The more China floundered like a foal caught in a swamp, bleeding itself dry in civil war, the farther away any hope of unification would drift. After fighting so desperately, there was no chance the warlords would ever willingly surrender their power.

“It won’t be difficult at all. In fact, that would only strengthen the cause of federal provincial autonomy. My purpose from the beginning has been to keep China divided. Dragging this civil war out in itself raises the likelihood that China will never bind itself into one nation again.”

“You clearly said you would keep it divided, but did you mean divided in a state of warlordism?”

“Wouldn’t that ensure they check each other in perpetuity? What if Chen Jiongming later seizes power, starts handing out territories—‘this is yours, that is yours’—implements federal provincial autonomy, and eventually transforms the whole thing into a united republic? What then?”

Chen Jiongming had been crushed miserably in real history, after all. But if that man actually gained control of China, there was no telling how ‍‍‌‌⁠​​⁠‌​​‍​​‍​‌​⁠‍‌‍⁠⁠‌⁠‌‍‌‍‌‌‌‍⁠​‌​‌​‌‍‌‌‌⁠‍​​‌‍⁠‌‌⁠⁠he might change. There was always the chance he might suddenly awaken like someone possessed by Tang Taizong or the Ming Yongle Emperor, crush every opponent of federal provincial autonomy with his army, subdue Vietnam, and then start raving about reclaiming the vassal state of Joseon. Of course, that was all nonsense. But a man like Chen Jiongming could still experience an awakening on that level.

No one could predict what sort of country a China under federal provincial autonomy would become, yet they could never erase the Sinocentrism carved into their very bones. Even the CCP had always behaved exactly like that. Therefore, simply leaving things as they were could be one valid approach.

“Have you perhaps seen something concerning China?”

“What do you mean?”

“I mean from that god you speak of. Since Your Majesty is also a saint, does it mean you have foreseen that China will become an axis of evil?”

In summary, he was asking whether the reason this saintly figure was trying to tear China apart was because China would become the villain.

“Are you saying you believe such things, Prime Minister?”

Just how did they view me in the Duma? Was I truly the ‍‍‌‌⁠​​⁠‌​​‍​​‍​‌​⁠‍‌‍⁠⁠‌⁠‌‍‌‍‌‌‌‍⁠​‌​‌​‌‍‌‌‌⁠‍​​‌‍⁠‌‌⁠⁠emperor of a constitutional monarchy?

“Personally—truly just my personal opinion—a China with real power will pursue hegemonism. With that enormous population as its base, once it industrializes and gains some breathing room, they will yearn for the era when they stood at the center of the world and begin flaunting their strength toward neighboring states. I have already told the White Army, but China is a country we must never lower our guard against.”

The Foreign Ministry had to keep that in mind at all times. Once it became clear that Russia had been reduced to a paper tiger by the invasion of Ukraine, Russia had been forced to rely on the CCP. After that came the full-scale invasion of Taiwan and the slide into nuclear war.

“I see. But since Chen Jiongming is a man chosen by Your Majesty, surely he possesses some special quality?”

“Isn’t everything proceeding exactly as intended?”

“Hmm. But… it’s just that…”

Yes. There was something he couldn’t quite voice. That vague, uneasy feeling. Whether leaving things exactly like this would truly allow Russia to achieve its desired outcome.

Wait. These people… I had been willing to let it slide, but were they simply taking my every word at face value? Had they believed everything I said until now and only just begun to feel anxious?

No. If guidance was needed, wasn’t that something the Duma should handle? If I had already converted Chen Jiongming into my believer and resolved the matter for them, they ought to manage the rest themselves. If I remained silent here, there was every chance Charina would think she could simply dump the mess she had created onto the Duma and wash her hands of it.

Sigh. That wouldn’t do. Therefore, I would play my role as the figurehead Tsarina as brightly and convincingly as possible—at least until the Duma could stand properly on its own. For all my appearance, I was the type who took responsibility seriously.

Come to think of it, Japan was also busily selling weapons to the Beiyang government right now.

“Still, I understand the Duma’s concerns.”

“In that case…”

The Prime Minister’s face brightened. Hmm. Then there was only one possibility left. A good method remained that could end both the war and the current push for federal provincial autonomy.

“Even so, if the faction I support remains in such a state, ‍‍‌‌⁠​​⁠‌​​‍​​‍​‌​⁠‍‌‍⁠⁠‌⁠‌‍‌‍‌‌‌‍⁠​‌​‌​‌‍‌‌‌⁠‍​​‌‍⁠‌‌⁠⁠it would be awkward. How would it be if I attempted direct mediation?”

“Would Japan stand by quietly?”

“Japan knows perfectly well that Duan Qirui of the Beiyang government won’t last much longer. Above all, if the civil war deepens further, other great powers may intervene.”

No matter how little attention they could afford to spare for China, any thinking person would realize it. Russia and Japan were merely selling weapons. Wouldn’t they salivate at the chance at least once? They might attempt to devour China in order to resolve their own domestic discontent.

“We will simply have to negotiate appropriately with Japan. Japan will not be able to reject the idea outright. Rather than allowing other powers to intervene, they would prefer to secure their interests in China alongside Russia.”

“That has merit.”

“It is certain that the Constitutional Protection Government is gradually gaining the advantage, yes?”

“Yes. If matters continue unchanged, victory is assured.”

“Then let us cut it short now and take this opportunity to pursue federal provincial autonomy.”

“Will Chen Jiongming accept it?”

What if he refused? Sun Yat-sen did not have many days left in any case. Rather, I could end the war with the Constitutional Protection Government in a superior yet deliberately ambiguous position and shift all responsibility onto Sun Yat-sen. Conclude it vaguely, negotiate with the warlords at an appropriate level, and establish federal autonomy. A low-stage version of federal provincial autonomy.

“We will attempt a plan that advances toward federal provincial autonomy in small steps. Japan will not view it too negatively either.”

In fact, Japan would welcome it even more. Even if the Constitutional Protection Government eventually swallowed all of China and later provided an easy pretext for attack as an anti-Japanese regime, they would still have to fight a unified China. For Japan, a China already sprouting the seeds of internal division at this stage would be far preferable. That way they could guide those divisions themselves and conquer China later.

And this would not be a bad outcome for Chen Jiongming, who desired at least a surface-level implementation of federal autonomy.

“Understood. In that case—”

“I will handle matters on my side. I shall send Chen Jiongming a personal letter. Prime Minister, instruct the Foreign Ministry to propose mediation to Japan.”

Mediating China alone might arouse unnecessary suspicion from Japan. On Asian matters, it was correct to continue working with them. If they realized we consulted them on every single issue, the Japanese would conclude one of two things: that Russia was weaker than expected and was adopting a subservient attitude, or that since friendly relations had been established, they should devour China together.

Personally, I was hoping for the latter. After all, I had already invested considerable attention in that direction.

“Yes, Your Majesty.”

Well then. How would China fare from here on?

The personal letter from Tsarina Anastasia to the Constitutional Protection Government was delivered to Chen Jiongming through the Russian White Army military advisors assisting that faction.

“You say Her Majesty the Tsarina has sent me a personal letter?”

“Indeed. She instructed that it was for Commander Chen Jiongming’s eyes alone.”

Chen Jiongming read the letter received from the White Army advisor and fell into brief contemplation. The message was simply a proposal to mediate now and accept the terms. Of course, the true intentions were all contained between the lines.

“Is ‍‍‌‌⁠​​⁠‌​​‍​​‍​‌​⁠‍‌‍⁠⁠‌⁠‌‍‌‍‌‌‌‍⁠​‌​‌​‌‍‌‌‌⁠‍​​‌‍⁠‌‌⁠⁠this truly Her Majesty’s will?”

“I have not seen the letter’s contents myself. However, according to the directive from our homeland, if matters continue this way the great powers may intervene. Therefore it would be better to mediate while we hold the initiative and assist Commander Chen Jiongming in taking Sun Yat-sen’s position.”

Intervention by the great powers. There was no chance that Britain and France would miss an opportunity while China bled. As a fellow European nation, the Tsarina of Russia could not be ignorant of that fact.

“Hmm.”

“We will prepare all the necessary justification. The commander need only persuade Sun Yat-sen. I hear his health has been poor lately?”

Not a single word from the Tsarina was mistaken. Once this war ended, Sun Yat-sen was destined to be removed. What would follow was a struggle for succession. And after that?

One had to speak plainly. How many figures would actually support federal provincial autonomy? It would be better to end the conflict ambiguously through mediation at this stage, pin the blame on Sun Yat-sen, then negotiate with the other warlords to develop their respective regions. That was the answer.

Chen Jiongming finished his mental calculations. First, he would have to persuade Sun Yat-sen.

In the Japanese Empire, the proposal for Russian mediation in China—received through the Russian ambassador—sparked considerable discussion. Prime Minister Hara Takashi convened the cabinet to discuss the China question in earnest.

“Hmm. Mediate the Chinese civil war? What exactly does that mean?”

“Presumably because further intensification of the civil war would make it difficult to secure interests.”

There was also the Chinese Eastern Railway and domestic reorganization to consider. It was unclear what real interests Russia could obtain in China. Wouldn’t it be more advantageous to prolong the civil war and continue selling weapons?

“For us, it would be better if Duan Qirui wins.”

Formally speaking, a Beiyang Government victory was preferable for Japan. Duan Qirui was, after all, the real power within that government. Of course, the relationship was one of temporary convenience at best. Japan knew Duan Qirui was cooperating only because the Constitutional Protection Government existed as a counterweight. Moreover, they knew the current Duan Qirui would not last long. Even now, more and more warlords were defecting to the Constitutional Protection side. The only profit Japan currently derived from China was through arms support. Ideally they would have sent troops directly, but earthquake recovery, the garrison in Korea, and the South Manchurian Railway left no capacity for Chinese intervention. At least Mutaguchi Renya, dispatched to the railway, was properly maintaining security there—a point worthy of high praise.

It was time to decide what to do about Duan Qirui.

“Duan Qirui of the Beiyang Government will turn on us the moment the Constitutional Protection Government is dealt with. Now is the time to secure practical gains.”

“First of all, why has this mediation proposal arrived so suddenly? If the Constitutional Protection Government wins as things stand, it shouldn’t be bad for Russia either, should it?”

Even from Japan’s perspective, the Constitutional Protection forces were slowly pushing back the Beiyang Government. The Beiyang regime was already being called traitors who had sold the country to Japan; the longer the civil war lasted, the more it would collapse under its own weight. In that case, withdrawing at this stage might be wise. For Japan, the proposal was not unfavorable. Russia’s suggestion of joint action on China essentially amounted to recognition of Japanese influence in the region.

“It is apparently due to the possibility that other great powers might intervene.”

“Is it not consideration for the Empire?”

Some pro-Russian officials rejoiced, believing it showed thoughtfulness toward the Empire, but the matter could not be so simple.

“There may be several reasons, but Russia claims that because of the assistance received from Britain and France, they cannot block those two if they attempt to claim a share.”

“If we remain inactive, Duan Qirui may contact Britain and France first. We were already considering mediation ourselves. If Russia approaches us in this manner, it is only proper that we ride the current.”

“Still, it feels as though we are conceding too much to Russia.”

“There is nothing for us to lose.”

There was indeed nothing to lose. Japan accepted the Russian proposal and dispatched special envoys to both the Beiyang Government and the Constitutional Protection Government simultaneously with Russia.

Meanwhile, Sun Yat-sen, provisional president of the Constitutional Protection Government, flew into a rage upon receiving the joint mediation offer from Russia and Japan. He glared at Chen Jiongming, who had delivered the news, and slammed his fist down on the desk.

Bang!

“This is absurd. End it here?”

“But hasn’t the matter been resolved by forcing Duan Qirui to step down?”

The mediation proposal had secured firm promises from both Russia and Japan that they would agree to remove Duan Qirui. Otherwise they would intervene militarily. Yet in the end, it meant that China’s peace—and this uneasily sutured wound—depended entirely on the strength of colonial empires like Russia and Japan.

Sun Yat-sen had initially opposed the idea precisely because he loathed that reality.

“Even so, this is—!”

“According to Russia, Britain and France were preparing to intervene.”

Chen Jiongming spoke softly, careful that only Sun Yat-sen could hear. Sun’s expression twisted.

“That cannot be true.”

“Even if it is not true, the mere emergence of such talk creates room for agitation, does it not?”

At those words, Sun Yat-sen was forced to reconsider. It might indeed be so. Moreover, if Russia and Japan intended to manipulate China at will, would the other nations simply stand by?