Chapter 25
Chapter 25
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Translator: Wjin
Chapter: 025
Chapter Title: War and Finance
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-With this, Franz Stefan and Maria Theresa, Habsburg and Lorraine, pledge to fulfill this oath through marriage in the future.
The engagement announcement could not have gone more smoothly.
Of course, even with the engagement, nothing changed noticeably.
I could now meet and take lessons with Theresia more freely, and Emperor Charles VI had begun treating me openly as his son-in-law. Those were the only changes.
"Hmm..."
Instead of titles like "next Duke of Lorraine" or "Habsburg son-in-law," the name Franz Stefan was gradually spreading across Europe.
But the real game hadn't even begun.
Not figuratively, but literally. We hadn't even reached the starting line.
Platinum jewelry sales had brought in a fortune, and once the Bohemian glass business hit its stride, it was sure to be a cash cow.
Yet it was still woefully insufficient.
What I needed wasn't just to be a rich man, but to possess overwhelming wealth capable of altering the course of a war.
"So, what do I need to achieve that?"
"Is that a simple question, or a test?"
"It could just be thinking out loud."
In the secret villa I'd prepared outside Hofburg Palace.
As I tilted my coffee cup and tossed out the casual question, Wolf Wertheimer—who had only just returned to Vienna—replied with utmost seriousness.
"There are two paths. First, keep expanding our businesses as we are now and use the profits to acquire promising ventures in other industries. It's the orthodox approach, but asset growth is slow. On the plus side, it's safe."
"And the second?"
"Investments or finance. Nothing multiplies money faster in a short time. But it comes with significant risks."
Exactly. To grow assets quickly, you need money to make money.
Selling jewelry and glass like now wouldn't amass enough wealth to sway a nation before the War of the Polish Succession.
I needed one or two chances to skyrocket my fortune dramatically.
That way, I could pour more funds into the glass factories and achieve economies of scale faster.
"Wolf, you know which way I'd choose, right?"
"...The latter, I presume. Do you have a specific target in mind?"
"Of course. You know it too—right now, only two countries are aggressively drawing all of Europe's attention."
"Great Britain and Spain."
Wolf answered without a second's hesitation before cautiously continuing.
"...Shall we invest in military supplies?"
"Wars always demand vast sums of money."
Next year at the latest, Spain would mobilize to reclaim Gibraltar, the gateway to the Atlantic.
Great Britain couldn't afford to lose it, so they'd blockade Spain's South American colonies to pin down their fleet, sparking war.
But Spain couldn't take Gibraltar, and Britain would suffer devastating losses from tropical diseases in South America. The war wouldn't last long.
However, this was knowledge only I possessed. Other European nations and merchants watched the standoff with anxiety.
There was no guarantee this clash wouldn't escalate into a massive continental war.
"Anxiety like this spreads like wildfire the moment someone lights the spark. So, rally merchants to hoard all war materiel. The reaction across Europe will be immediate."
"Should we throw every available fund into buying up military goods?"
"No. Just pretend to at the start. Once the panic ignites, everyone will rush to buy. We watch, then sell everything when war breaks out and exit."
"That would yield high returns... but the absolute profits wouldn't be that huge, would they?"
Wolf looked at me with evident confusion.
He was right—if we just wanted war profits, this wasn't the way.
Without waiting for my reply, he pondered on his own, then leaned in close to the notes I'd scribbled.
"Your Highness doesn't expect this war to drag on long. You're aiming for gains elsewhere?"
"Spot on. You're quick; makes talking easy."
When war erupts, it's not just military supplies that rise in price.
Insurance premiums for merchant safety—especially maritime trade—soar beautifully.
A clash between seafaring powers like Spain and Great Britain would inevitably ravage shipping merchants.
From my memories and modern research, maritime insurance rates would jump at least 10%.
But that's without me fanning the flames.
"Once hoarding starts across Europe from our lead, financial markets will take a direct hit. 'Are they really going all-in?' The fear will spread."
"Lloyd's Coffee House and Amsterdam insurers will be thrilled."
"Exactly. So from now, scout Amsterdam insurance firms we can reason with and acquire all viable ones."
Other insurers, overestimating war risks, will charge exorbitant premiums. Undercut them by 20-30%, and customers will flock.
Competitors might follow suit, but few could—they thrived on risk assessment, and dismissing inflated war dangers was nearly impossible.
"...Brilliant. Not only does it attract hordes of clients from this crisis, but it rebuilds insurer credibility."
"Right. We'll stand out as the calm analysts amid Europe's hoarding frenzy."
"But this hinges on the war ending quickly. Any basis for that...?"
"I'll write it now. Plus, there's another key item for you to stockpile. We can handle it together."
I kindly jotted down my post-hoc analysis of why the Spain-Britain war had to end swiftly.
As with all things, analyzing causes after results is easy.
Predicting beforehand? Far harder. Wolf stared intently at my summary report for a long while.
"...Convincing. And it explains why Your Highness wants me to secure this item."
His expression mixed skepticism and acceptance as he continued.
"Logically sound. I just... never knew Your Highness had such foresight."
"Wolf, war is money. View it through interests, and its course becomes predictable."
"Indeed... a plausible theory."
Of course, it was nonsense. If it were that simple, why had I suffered in the Austrian Succession or Seven Years' War?
But to wrap my spoiler as "rational prediction," I needed a convincing rationale.
His reaction showed it worked well.
"One issue, Your Highness: stockpiling and selling this item now guarantees huge profits, but it risks diplomatic fallout. Is that alright?"
"Of course not. But no need to worry overly."
I chuckled, recalling the welcome guest who had just arrived in Vienna.
"I'm about to meet someone who'll resolve that anxiety."
* * * After wrapping up with Wolf, I deliberately looped through Vienna's streets before returning to the palace, where one excited guest greeted me warmly.
Elector of Bavaria, Karl Albrecht.
As first in line among electors to receive the platinum jewelry, he'd been traveling everywhere to show it off.
"Hahaha, Your Highness Franz has quite the eye. Everyone recognizes it—'Isn't that?!'"
"Worn by Your Grace the Elector, the platinum shines even brighter. To me, it looks thrilled to have found its true owner."
"How you lift the spirits with words. Now that you're engaged, we'll soon be family, not strangers. Let's grow closer henceforth."
"That's my hope too. Nothing more reassuring than a closer bond with Your Grace the Elector."
Having sided with him unconditionally—like a pushover ripe for exploitation—Karl was visibly lowering his guard.
He likely figured my flattery stemmed from needing elector support for emperorship.
Not entirely wrong, really.
To be recognized as emperor, I needed the electors' votes.
Aware of that, Karl Albrecht had ramped up subtle requests bordering on favors, leveraging his position.
"I'm the reassuring one. Word is Your Highness Franz has exceptional business acumen. Platinum, now Bohemian glass—rumors fill the Empire."
"Just luck."
"Luck alone? Anyway... any new ventures brewing? I'd like to invest personally if so."
"Ah... that's it. Actually, there's a golden opportunity. Was keeping it to myself, but..."
I lowered my voice, and the elector naturally leaned in.
"You know the tensions between Spain and England."
"Of course. Rumors say war's imminent."
"By next year at latest, war breaks out. England will hit Spain's South American colonies to tie down their fleet."
"...Yes... naturally."
"But as you know, South America is a hotbed of tropical diseases. Attacking means English troops suffer outbreaks—inevitable, just a matter of scale."
Albrecht nodded slowly.
Anyone with a nose for money should grasp my point, but perhaps I needed to spell it out.
"Yet cinchona bark from South American trees excellently mitigates those diseases. Spain tightly controls it, especially from England."
No need to mention its quirks; medical knowledge here couldn't distinguish uses anyway.
"Aha. So stockpile the bark now, and when war hits, gouge the English pirates. Right?"
"Exactly. If Your Grace buys the medicine, I'd gladly add my funds."
This preempts the classic "If it's so good, why aren't you doing it?"
Clutching my investment outline, Albrecht licked his lips and buried his face in the paper.
"Why not buy directly...?"
"Austria's Spain's ally. Selling to England outright violates treaties."
"Ahhh~ So you'll invest if I buy. Brilliant acumen, Your Highness Franz. Hahaha!"
Austria couldn't sell to Britain's benefit, but Bavaria could.
Of course, I planned to have Wolf buy tons via the Netherlands.
But if exposed, it spells diplomatic disaster—too obvious a product.
Wolf's worry was spot on.
But if Bavaria's elector were caught bulk-buying cinchona?
Spain's suspicions would fizzle at Bavaria's name, never reaching Austria.
Thus.
"What say you? Shall we make a fortune together?"
"How can I refuse phrased like that?"
"Heh heh heh."
"Heh heh heh."
You, my foe in a past life.
In this one, be my shield a bit.
Thanks.