The Winds of the Universe
"First, I must thank you. If you hadn't blocked Peters's insane conspiracy, the Republican Party would have been in a world of trouble."
"I couldn't just stand by and watch a lunatic drag the country down. I only did what had to be done."
"Even within the Republican Party, there are quite a few people who have come to think highly of you because of this. Before, whenever I tried to cover for you, they'd sarcastically ask if my family had caught cholera or something."
Lincoln set his horse racing program book down on the side and shook his head with a wry smile.
He didn't smoke, and he didn't particularly enjoy horse racing, but he had come here solely for today's meeting.
Lincoln picked up the drink placed before him, took a sip, and immediately got to the point.
"So, may I know why you asked to see me?"
"Naturally, to discuss what lies ahead."
"If it's something that couldn't be shared in a letter, it must be very important or sensitive."
"Both. I thought you might have guessed."
"Is it the topic we discussed when we first met?"
Thinking about how we were discussing the future of the United States at a horse racing track made a laugh of absurdity escape me.
"From the moment I first saw you, I thought you were a talent better suited for the North than the South. If you join the Republican Party, I have every intention of throwing my full support behind you as a talent who will take responsibility for the future of the party."
"A 'slave master' with a reputation in the South joining the Republican Party? What kind of talk is that?"
"That's something time will resolve once you prove it through your actions. If you sow seeds in the field now and water them, won't you have results within ten years?"
"It's still a long way off. And I have no intention of directly involving myself in politics."
The moment I join the Republican Party, not the Democratic Party, I am officially a traitor to the South. Even after the war ends, that won't change, and if the issue of race gets tangled up in it, there will be no shortage of people running around trying to kill me. Why on earth would I crawl into a pit of fire?
If I were going to do that, I would have liquidated my assets and fled to the North to join the Republican Party long ago.
"Well, fine. I already knew you had no intention of joining our party, so let's have a more constructive discussion. The fact that you want to have a serious discussion in this climate means you've judged that Breckinridge won't be able to handle this chaos, right?"
"It's closer to saying he has no intention of handling it, rather than being unable to. His current submissive stance is merely a move conscious of the election; he has even warned that he will start running wild in earnest starting next year."
Lincoln's face hardened.
His reaction suggested he couldn't believe it, but when I told him that Breckinridge had already spread his plans to Southern federal lawmakers, he finally squeezed his eyes shut and rubbed his forehead with his hand.
"He told our side that, unlike Buchanan, he would prioritize the stabilization of the North..."
"Did you believe that?"
"Logically, that is the best course of action. I didn't trust Breckinridge's conscience; I trusted his reason."
As someone who knows what happens in the future, it's a frustrating thing to hear, but in reality, this is a sensible reaction. Most Republican lawmakers operate on the assumption that 'the South is just talking big, they wouldn't actually think of independence.'
That's true.
However, when a historic disaster occurs, 'common sense' is always the first thing to get screwed over.
No. Actually, because people without common sense cause the incidents, they are recorded in history as unprecedented disasters.
"Commissioner Lincoln, since you are deeply involved in the Republican Party's policies, let me ask you a few things. Why do you think it's irrational for President Breckinridge and the South to pursue a 'South-First' policy?"
"That's because there's fundamentally too much of a difference in weight between the North and the South. The population gap has already widened as much as it can, and you can't compare anything from overall production to economic power."
"I see."
As expected, a perfectly sensible answer came back. This is why it doesn't work.
"Let me tell you the 'common sense' opinion of the people in the South from now on. 'Those Northern bastards are wobbling economically just because a few banks went bankrupt, so if a war breaks out, their economy will collapse entirely, right? On the other hand, our South hasn't been hit by the panic, so even if a war happens, we can handle it.'"
"......??"
"'What about war supplies if a war breaks out? We can just exchange them for cotton. Europe can't survive the winter without our cotton, so we can just bring in weapons or food from Europe. Do you think those Northern bastards will block European ships? If they do, Europe will side with the South, right?'"
"No, wait."
"'We'll just grit our teeth and hold out for two or three years, and Europe, unable to endure it, will intervene and demand a draw, so we'll just hold out until then. Northern bastards, get a taste of how solid our cotton economy is.'"
Lincoln silently emptied the drink in his hand.
And as if he couldn't believe it, he let out a painful groan and asked.
"Are you saying that isn't a bluff, but that they truly think that way?"
"Of course. Did you think it was just a hollow threat?"
"Naturally. If you asked 100 Republican lawmakers, 99 of them would say so."
That's why I'm telling you not to be bound by common sense.
Slaves to common sense are destined to be stabbed in the back by lunatics.
"You keep tripping up because you think the common sense of ordinary people applies to them. I'm telling you, the South has its own 'Southern common sense.' You really need to cultivate some 'Southern sensitivity.'"
"Good heavens, I'm going to go mad."
"I, who am full of Southern sensitivity, will summarize it for you clearly: the South is going to go with a 'if you don't like it, let's have a war' stance."
"You know it too. If something like that really happens, the North won't back down."
Fortunately, perhaps because there was now a halo effect on my words, Lincoln began to accept my story not as the ramblings of a madman, but as the insight of a Southern expert.
Frankly speaking, do you think Hitler started a war saying, 'Ah, I am a truly illogical and irrational person'?
Hitler also made his own rational judgments and meticulous plans before starting the war. Japan's attack on Pearl Harbor was the same, and the South's actions in the Civil War were not much different.
Lunatics never know they are crazy.
If they knew, they would have gone to a hospital instead of starting a war.
"Phew... still, if everything you say is true, then conversely, this chaos won't last long."
"...Excuse me?"
What kind of fresh nonsense is this?
According to my memory, the Civil War lasted four years and literally ground Americans into dust.
When I looked at Lincoln with an absurd expression, he blinked as if he didn't understand.
"You said Breckinridge and the South would even risk war. It's a scenario I don't even want to imagine, but if a war does break out, the Republican Party will respond decisively, and the South will be suppressed in vain, so wouldn't the commotion subside in a year at most?"
Lincoln added a short word with a bitter smile.
"It's a pity that such a grave issue ends not with debate but with the Gordian Knot, but what can one do? If that is the path they choose..."
"No, no, no."
I think you're under a massive misconception. It's true that it's insane for the South to pick a fight with the North, but that doesn't mean the South is going to get crushed by you guys.
"Excuse me? Commissioner Lincoln? Who said the war would end in a year?"
"...Huh? You're the one who's talking nonsense. Surely you don't harbor the delusion that the South can fight the North on equal terms, the kind of delusion only 'Dixies' would have? Didn't you say yourself that that made no sense?"
"I said the belief that the South could win against the North or end it in a draw was a delusion. I didn't say the South would lose, but I didn't exactly say *how* they would lose."
"Isn't that just wordplay? If the South started a fight they couldn't win against the North in the first place, it means the difference in power between the two sides is clear, yet the North struggles against the South?"
Now you finally understand. Isn't that exactly why I called you here?
Of course, this is by no means because Lincoln is incompetent or lacks an eye for people.
It's not like the President personally conducts the war, and it's not like the future Lincoln, who was just about to be elected, could command the military exactly as he wished.
However, the reason the North, which was overwhelmingly superior in everything from weight class and weapons to production and navy, was dragged along by the South, which was inferior in everything, was not for any other reason.
Because the South fought better than expected?
That might be part of it, but there was no Napoleon or Frederick the Great in the South, so the excuse that the opponent was too strong wouldn't hold water.
Then there is only one natural conclusion.
"...Are you trying to say the problem is not in the South, but in the North?"
"Naturally. If it's not that, what else could it be?"
There is usually only one reason why an army that should be winning overwhelmingly achieves disastrous results.
It's because of the 'useless stars' (incompetent high-ranking officers) who only eat rice. So, shall we try doing something about these guys first?
* * *
There are so many cases where incompetent officers have ruined battles that it's hard to list them all. Didn't even the teacher Mutaguchi Renya—no, the teacher 'Mo-jeon-gu-ryeom-ya'—who is highly praised by 21st-century South Koreans, ruin his own army?
Even with my limited knowledge, a significant number of those who were in charge of the early command of the North were incompetent officers of a level that would have been recorded as heroes in Southern history books if the South had succeeded in independence.
Of course, Lincoln, who had no way of knowing this fact, shook his head gently, saying that this time, my words were wrong.
"That's a perspective I can't really agree with. Aren't you evaluating them that way because you've seen the analysis of the Southerners? The South must perceive the commanders of the Union as incompetent to more easily incite public opinion for independence..."
No, Mr. Lincoln. I told you not to keep looking at things from the perspective of a 'common sense' person.
Why is this person so rational and reasonable?
"Frankly speaking, how much of a great battle could a Union commander have fought? At most, they've only built up military achievements against Native Americans firing old muskets. If winning a great victory by utilizing the difference in weapons makes one a great general, then Ben, the security chief of our plantation, is a great general comparable to Hannibal."
"That may be so, but... there are many prominent figures in the North. There is George McClellan right now. He's an outstanding talent called the 'Young Napoleon,' haven't you heard of him?"
He's saying something that would make Napoleon weep in the afterlife. If there had really been a 'Young Napoleon' in the North, the North would have scorched the South and occupied the capital within half a year.
I'm not a historian, but as someone who knows the results of the Civil War, I possess a detector more certain than anything else.
The likely candidates to take charge of the early command of the Union army are all incompetent officers.
You just need to actively appoint people like Ulysses S. Grant or William Sherman, whom I've heard of. I don't know who the gentleman called the 'Young Napoleon' is, but he should thank me. He won't have to be cursed at for being one of the culprits who dragged out the Civil War.
"Commissioner, I won't force you to finalize things a few years from now anyway. How about we just promise one thing for now?"
"...Yes, what do you want?"
"If a war breaks out, it must end as quickly as possible so that unnecessary blood won't flow. I will definitely help you end this war as quickly as possible, so Commissioner Lincoln, please definitely help me too."
"Even if you ask me to help, I think you need to tell me what you're going to do specifically so I can help."
"It's simple. If a war breaks out, I will smuggle food and weapons through Mexico. Please help me so that this doesn't become a problem later. And, after the war ends, my 'Sett Cotton' will rebuild the Southern cotton economy, so if anything is said in the Republican Party, please block it, Commissioner."
What would happen if Lincoln, who was praised as the greatest hero even in original history, led the Civil War to a short-term victory?
It's not like I asked him to push for it directly; I just asked him to close his eyes and pretend he didn't see it for a moment if the information was useful.
"There must be a clearer reason why you're going this far."
"That's for a world where no one gets hurt."
"......?"
"......"
"...Ah, I see. Is that the concept?"
No, why are you looking at me with those eyes?
I'm telling you, I really want slavery to disappear, okay?