Division, Independence, and
London, the capital of the British Empire—the undisputed superpower of the 19th century.
Palmerston’s Liberal Party, having barely regained power, had no intention of losing it again. But if elections could be won on desire alone, who wouldn't rule forever? The Palmerston cabinet remained vigilant, never knowing when or where the opposition Conservative Party might trip them up.
While there were many pressing issues, the one consuming his attention was, without a doubt, the war for Italian unification. Giuseppe Garibaldi’s Redshirts had landed in Sicily and were rapidly seizing the island. Furthermore, Napoleon III of France had annexed Savoy and Nice in exchange for aiding Italian unification, which was more than enough to grate on British nerves. To top it off, although it was nearing its end, the Second Opium War still required a review of what concessions to extract. He had no energy to spare for anything else.
At least, that was true until yesterday.
"...What? What did you say? Where is the high probability of war?"
"The United States, Prime Minister."
At the top-secret intelligence brought by the Postmaster General, Baron Eldery, Prime Minister Palmerston froze, his teacup halfway to his lips. The United States? Those damn fools who had just dumped a massive pile of trouble on his cabinet due to an economic panic? Was there even a country left for those bastards to fight?
"Are they planning another war with Mexico? Don't tell me they're going to war with Spain to annex Cuba..."
"There is an analysis suggesting a 90 percent or higher probability that the United States will split in two and enter a state of civil war."
"What? Civil war?"
Palmerston scoffed. He wondered what this was about, assuming it was just the usual bluffing about the South seceding from the Union.
"Baron, you know what kind of people those Americans are. Even when they fought us, they stood united and resisted. And you're telling me they're going to split among themselves and go to war? That's absurd..."
"This is internal intelligence obtained by the man who is to be my son-in-law. If the South loses this election, they intend to secede from the Union, install their own president, and establish a new nation."
"That is the same blackmail the South has always used..."
"No. They have already prepared specific plans for everything."
Palmerston knew well who the man set to be Baron Eldery’s son-in-law was. James Seuret, the planter who enjoyed absolute support in the South for establishing the absurdly named 'Slave Rehabilitation Center.' The Prime Minister had even hinted that he didn't like the idea of a member of the House of Lords taking such a man as a son-in-law, but Baron Eldery had revealed a shocking secret.
The truth was that James Seuret was already preparing for an era where slavery would be abolished, and he had been leaking the South’s internal intelligence to his father-in-law. And when such an insider affirmed that the South would truly break away from the United States, the Prime Minister felt his head spin.
"So, you mean they will divide into North and South, enter a state of civil war, and ultimately, the most important topic in this war will be..."
"The abolition of slavery, I suppose."
"Tsk."
Honestly, these Americans were never of any help in life. Logically, if a conflict over the abolition of slavery were to arise, the British Empire should naturally throw its weight behind the abolitionists. After all, the British Empire was the conscience of this era, having been the first in the world to outlaw the slave trade. However, he worried that completely turning his back on the cotton imported from the South would deal a massive blow to his approval ratings. The ignorant citizens would clamor for the abolition of slavery, but the moment the cotton supply stopped, they would be the same people foaming at the mouth, demanding the government take responsibility.
"Prime Minister, that is why we must encourage cotton cultivation in India and Egypt starting now and diversify our supply. While we cannot fully replace Southern cotton in terms of quality or price, if we prepare in advance, we can significantly mitigate the impact."
"True... and it would certainly reduce the damage to our merchant ships caused by the blockade of Southern ports, as well as the insurance side of things."
If a civil war were to break out unexpectedly, the British Empire, deeply intertwined with the U.S. economically, would inevitably suffer. But if they could prepare in advance, the shock could be greatly reduced. No, he could even spin this as the foresight of the Prime Minister and the ruling party, launching a massive media campaign.
"For now, ask the Baron’s son-in-law for more detailed information. If that information is truly accurate, it will be of great help to our cabinet."
The British Empire, the land of gentlemen, strives to return grudges twofold and favors in equal measure. The Empire began preparing, in secret, to cleanly excise the South.
"Everyone! We must show the firm resolve of our North!"
"As Senator Seward said, voting for Douglas only increases the chances of Breckinridge’s election! The only candidate who can make the Union one! Please raise your hands for Lincoln!"
The Republican Party went all out, with all the big names like Seward and Chase mobilizing to consolidate Northern public opinion. Stephen Douglas, the Northern Democrat, did not back down, campaigning daily and doing his best to counter them.
"Our Democratic Party will break away from the old sentiments of the past and pursue true integration! Popular sovereignty! It is the only path the Union must take!"
In reality, the number of Northern Democrats supporting Douglas was by no means small. However, the Southern Democrats' failure to attack him, hoping for his success, became a liability.
"Look, everyone! The Southern Democratic Party has been checking and slandering our Republican Party from start to finish. Why would that be? Because Douglas is ultimately living two lives under one roof with the South! The only party that can control the South’s runaway train is ours! The Republican Party!"
"Lincoln to the White House!"
"Lincoln! Lincoln! Lincoln!"
Usually, presidential elections involve various topics like tariffs, transcontinental railroads, or rural development, but the 1860 election was an exception. The nuclear-level topic of slavery swallowed all other issues, dominating the political landscape, and voters focused on who could best resolve the conflict surrounding it. As time went on, the direction of public opinion became clear.
"Lincoln! Lincoln! Lincoln!"
"Everyone! I, Abraham Lincoln, promise you. I will do my utmost to ensure our United States can stand tall once again as a unified nation! I believe you all know that every word and action of mine thus far supports my convictions!"
"Waaaaaah!"
In fact, the Republican Party’s leading candidates, Seward and Chase, even went out of their way to give stump speeches for Lincoln’s election, traveling all over the North. On the other hand, the Democratic Party saw the incumbent president himself run out of the party, causing a split with absurd nonsense about refusing to accept the election results and declaring them invalid. At this point, it was clear who was more qualified as the standard-bearer for integration.
As the situation unfolded this way, the South finally pulled out its hidden card.
"Our Southern states will secede from the Union if Lincoln is elected."
"This is an ultimatum. It doesn't matter who else it is. But not Lincoln."
Yeah, go ahead and elect Lincoln. If you do, we'll just secede. It wasn't just anyone; it was an unprecedented situation where a party with an incumbent president threatened to secede from the Union if the other side was elected. The South expected that people, unsettled by this masterstroke, would vote for Douglas instead of Lincoln. They didn't even go so far as to say, "Vote for Breckinridge." They said anyone but Lincoln, so they expected wise Northern voters to support Douglas to balance the power.
...That was merely an expectation from a purely "Dixie-centric" perspective. The truly sensible voters were hit square in the face by this Southern blackmail and trembled in fear.
"Wow, these Southern bastards are insane."
"Secede if you lose the election? Is this what a party with a president says?"
"Aren't the North and South Democrats ultimately the same?"
The citizens of the United States received a near-certain premonition that the South might truly destroy the country.
"Since we've shown our resolve this much, the North must be terrified!"
"If we play our cards right, our Southern Democratic Party might even take some electoral votes from the North."
"Theoretically, if we gather just 100, we can win the presidential election."
The South, still not giving up on the match, had their "happy circuit" heated to the limit, dreaming of becoming the ultimate winner of the tripartite division of the continent. But no matter how high the threshold, an overheated circuit is bound to blow.
"Abraham Lincoln 192! John Breckinridge 72! Stephen Douglas 0! Constitutional Union Party John Bell 39!"
Along with the shocking result that Douglas, who had even lost the electoral votes he could have originally obtained thanks to the South's "support," failed to secure a single electoral vote, the results of the grand 1860 U.S. presidential election were announced.
"Abraham Lincoln! Elected President of the United States!"
Tripartite division of the continent?
Do you really think that's going to happen?
The atmosphere in the South, having lost the election like a dog, was naturally like a funeral home. It wasn't just because they lost. This election had laid bare the structural reality the South faced in the current United States.
"Every state in the South supported Breckinridge. But we only managed to secure 72 electoral votes."
"Conversely, even though John Bell took 39 votes in the North, Lincoln won overwhelmingly with over 190. What this implies is clear."
From now on, no matter what the South does, they cannot be the kingmaker. Whether the South pours 70 votes into one person or not, what hope is there to elect a president when the North holds over 200 electoral votes? Even Douglas himself had been mercilessly shunned in the North simply because he carried the "Democratic" label. Furthermore, the North’s population growth rate was far superior to the South’s. This meant that if the current dynamic worsened, it would never weaken.
"Your Excellency, you must make a decision."
"Now that the Democratic Party is split, we are no longer the majority even in the Senate. Unless the Senate, the House, and the President are all on our side, the institutions of the United States no longer protect the South."
A person can endure even if reality is a sewer if there is hope that things will get better. But if one realizes that the future holds only despair, there are only two choices for someone backed into a corner: give up in despair, or make an extreme choice to overturn the reality they face.
"I believe the reason for a nation's existence is to protect its people."
Watching all of this from the corner of the massive conference hall, I sensed it in Breckinridge’s eyes. Even in the original history, the Southern Democrats caused trouble after a short delay, but this man was truly about to do it. Then again, isn't a "self-coup" usually more successful than a regular coup? If he was truly going to do it, it was a more rational judgment to act now, while he still held the title of U.S. President.
"I will create a nation of the South, for the South, and by the South."
"...Oooooh!"
"Finally!"
"My plan is this. First, consolidate all Southern public opinion and prepare for independence. In the meantime, I will use my presidential authority to the fullest to lay the groundwork for the South to safely secede, which will make things easier."
And simultaneously with independence, they would seize as many Northern weapons as possible and request that Europe recognize their independence, using cotton exports as an excuse. Once recognized by Europe as a legitimate nation, they could establish an independent foreign policy based on that. Whether the North recognized slavery or not, they could live their own lives, and the South could simply annex Mexico and Cuba to build an independent industrial system.
"A nation that excludes the opinions of our South is one we reject first. This is not treason, but a lawful struggle for our survival!"
"The establishment of a Confederate States for the South alone! That is the only salvation for the South!"
Deo Vindice (God will vindicate us).
Before 1860, the year the presidential election concluded, had even passed, Breckinridge, with the overwhelming support of the South, passed the motion for Southern independence and the founding of the Confederate States of America amidst enthusiastic applause. It was the founding of an unrecognized nation by an incumbent president—something that had never happened before and would never happen again. The South had pressed the self-destruct button with their own hands.