[Cult Wine (3)]
It was certainly a logical argument, but Frederick couldn't just jump into it blindly.
“There’s going to be a price difference, though... do you think we can find something at a reasonable price point?”
“I asked an agricultural land broker on my way here.”
“Oh? You’re as prepared as ever.”
“I couldn't suggest it to you if the numbers didn't add up. Anyway, they said that because walnuts are already such a common crop in California, they’re traded quite frequently. A 100-acre plot goes for anywhere between 2.3 and 2.7 million dollars.”
“Hmm... that’s not far off from what I imagined. What about almonds?”
“Almonds aren't quite as common as walnuts, but there’s a well-established market in California, so you can buy as much as you want. They might be a bit pricier than walnuts, but if you’re looking for a deal, they can show you older orchards or ones nearing a generational transition. You could get those for 2 to 2.5 million dollars. If you want raw land for new planting, you can find 100-acre plots for around 1.5 million.”
“What’s your take?”
“If it were me, I’d look for an orchard that’s ready for immediate harvest, but that’s just me.”
I said it with a slightly embarrassed look, and Frederick let out a bitter laugh.
“True, that sounds like you.”
I said it because I was confident I could maintain the yield and quality by finding the optimal method even after taking over the farm, and Frederick understood that immediately. Conversely, if Brandon took over the farm, could he maintain the yield and quality without making any mistakes?
I couldn't be sure. Actually, the odds were much higher that he wouldn't.
“So, you think it’s better for Brandon to buy an older orchard or one in a transition period?”
“Walnut farming and almond farming are very different, even if they’re both nuts. It’s not easy.”
When I said it wasn't easy with a firm expression, Frederick’s face darkened.
“I’ve never farmed almonds either, so I don’t know much. Is it that difficult?”
“Well... if walnut farming is a type of ‘managed’ farming, almond farming should be considered ‘corporate’ farming.”
“What does that mean?”
“Walnut trees generally have deep, strong roots, so they absorb water well. They have high water requirements, but the advantage is that those requirements are consistent and follow a clear pattern.”
In short, once you learn the established pattern, the difficulty of the farming isn't that high. Of course, that doesn't mean it’s easy. Brandon’s case, where he ruined a year’s harvest due to pests, is a prime example.
Still, compared to almonds, walnuts were relatively simple.
“And what about these ‘corporate’ almonds?”
“The roots themselves are shallow and delicate. They’re sensitive to moisture fluctuations, so they require intensive watering during the flowering and fruit-setting stages. While walnuts are relatively indifferent to moisture stress, almonds are different; if you mismanage the water, the flowers and fruit will drop immediately.”
“Ah... a sensitive one, then.”
“Exactly. That’s why, just like running a business, having a clear process and the ability to respond to crises is essential.”
“So it requires long experience?”
“Experience and knowledge.”
“Hmm...”
Frederick crossed his arms and nodded at the fact that it was a difficult crop to farm.
“And what else?”
“The pollination mechanism is different, too. With walnuts, they pollinate by wind, so there isn't much to consider there. But almonds must be pollinated by bees, so if bee activity slows down, fruit set fails. There’s a lot you have to know.”
“Brandon is going to have a hell of a time.”
“Haha, you’re right. He’s going to struggle quite a bit.”
“But you’re saying there are advantages?”
“Of course. Basically, walnuts have a high fat content, so there’s a risk of rancidity if left too long, which is why the reality is that they’re mostly consumed domestically. Plus, they’re centered around bread and dessert ingredients, and they’re highly dependent on processing. But almonds can exert a clear advantage in the export market.”
Frederick, who wasn't a stranger to this, frowned and said,
“Right, I’ve heard that almonds are exported a lot.”
“Almond exports will only grow further in the future. Compared to walnuts, which are limited to domestic consumption, the price range will be much higher.”
In reality, before my regression, walnut prices had an average annual growth rate of 4-5% over 10 years, while almonds were at 12-15%. The reason I know so much about almonds is that I had conducted research on almond export growth at Cornell University before I regressed.
Furthermore, almonds are a core ingredient in the global plant-based protein and alternative food market, and they can expand into various fields like almond milk and almond butter. In short, while walnuts remained a mere agricultural product even before my regression, almonds had become an industry.
The marketability itself was on a different level.
“Then why did you mention blueberries?”
At this point, he seemed curious about why I had selected blueberries in the first place. But no matter how well I explained it, I didn't think he would choose blueberries. Since there weren't many proper farms in California yet, I figured he wouldn't easily reach for something so unfamiliar.
“I think they’re very promising, just as much as almonds. But if it had to be one of the two, you’d choose almonds, right?”
“Hmm... I suppose so?”
“Then there you go...”
When I took the stance that I didn't need to explain any further, Frederick didn't ask any more about blueberries.
“If you weren't growing grapes, would you choose almonds?”
“Of course. Without a doubt.”
And it wouldn't just be almond cultivation. I would build a factory to process them, too.
“So, replacing the same scale of farm isn't a bad choice, and it’s better to learn slowly while gaining experience with a farm that’s in a generational transition?”
“Exactly. That way, you’ll earn profits while gaining experience.”
“And I’ll be partnering with you again this time?”
“You can, or you don’t have to.”
By forming a strategic partnership with Frederick, there was already room for significant profit regarding the cherry farming. So, I left everything to Frederick’s decision, but he seemed to have little faith in his son.
“I hope we do. I felt it again with the walnut farming earlier. If it had been cherry farming, that wouldn't have happened, right?”
“I suppose so?”
For the cherry farming, I would visit often to check the status and let them know what was lacking. Chloe was able to easily start the new Shingo pear orchard because she had experienced that. She knew that if a problem arose, I would help, and that I would continue to advise them so that problems wouldn't arise in the first place.
The walnut farming wasn't like that, so when the problem occurred back then, it was my first visit to the walnut orchard.
“I want to do it under the same conditions as before.”
“It’s not bad for me, but I don’t know if Brandon will accept it.”
“He’ll accept it. He’s different from before; he seems sincere about farming now.”
“If that’s the case... alright, I understand. Almonds are in the fruit-setting stage now, so they’ll be in the middle of harvest soon. They won’t sell the farm before the harvest is over, so I think you can sign the contract around September.”
“Good. I’ll do that.”
Frederick nodded. He asked me again as I was about to get up, having finished my advice.
“Oh, by the way...”
“Yes?”
“If it’s that promising, wouldn't it be okay to start bigger than 100 acres?”
Now that I looked at him, it seemed Frederick hadn't just been making decisions based on his trust in me. Was he just a person born with a love for gambling-like risks?
If it were me, and I had the money, I’d think 100 acres was too small and secure as much land as possible, but Frederick was looking to invest his assets even without having seen the future.
“I’m confident, but you don’t necessarily have to go that far...”
“We’ve been cherry farming in Brentwood for over 30 years. How much do you think we’ve earned?”
“......”
“I thought I’d just grow old and finish after raising the kids, but the thought of starting a new crop at this age makes me excited, you know?”
“You’re still young at heart.”
“Hahaha! Is that so? Hmm... I suppose so. I thought my passion had faded, but I think it was just because I’d become too accustomed to the old way of farming. It’s as thrilling as meeting a new lover. Is this why people have affairs?”
“So you’re not going to leave it all to Brandon?”
“I only occasionally got involved with cherries and mostly focused on olive farming, but I’m thinking of changing my mind. I’ll give Brandon a stake equal to the existing walnut farm. I’ll start with the rest as my own stake. Oh, and I’ll put your 30% stake in there. How about it?”
The scale had become much larger than I had first thought.
“I have no reason to object.”
“Good! Then I’ll let you know once I find a suitable farm. Let’s set a date to sign the contract once it’s prepared.”
“Understood.”
Frederick concluded, buzzing with anticipation for the future. It’s a good thing it was me; if he had run into a con artist, he might have been taken for everything he had. Of course, he was able to trust and start because the industry itself was farming; if it had been a completely different industry, he wouldn't have been taken in so easily.
Time passed quickly, and we entered September, the grape harvest season. Cabernet Sauvignon is harvested from early October to mid-October at the latest. Because I was in the middle of pushing the SWP levels high to apply moisture stress, it was a very sensitive time for me.
Frederick, who had already established a business called Solaris Nut Company in August and signed a contract with me, acquired a farm called Sierra Bloom Farms located in Fresno County, Central Valley.
Of course, since we had a formal business agreement, I had personally visited several candidate farms, and the Sierra Bloom Farms we purchased this time was one I had recommended.
I had secured a stake in another business, but I didn't pay much attention to it. He must be buzzing with anticipation right now, but I plan to teach him about almond farming little by little only after the harvest is completely over.
So, am I only focusing on grape cultivation? No. I visited LA, the first big city I’ve visited since my regression.
Specifically, the headquarters of White & Co. Wine Trading.
“Welcome. We’re glad to have you.”
My father and I entered the office, welcomed by Christopher’s greeting, and waited for today’s briefing while sipping juice provided by the staff.
A folder was neatly placed on the long conference table, and the title ‘Sylphide / 2006 Distribution Plan’ was projected on the wall by a beam projector.
“It’s been a while. Thank you sincerely for visiting in person. I will now begin the briefing on the Sylphide distribution strategy.”
His smile carried his characteristic confidence. Today’s visit was arranged due to Christopher’s proposal that he wanted to explain the branding and distribution strategy for Sylphide.
“This spring season, we will allocate Sylphide to 30 high-end restaurants centered in New York, Boston, and Washington D.C. These are places frequently visited by reporters from ‘Wine Enthusiast’ and ‘Food & Wine’. We’ll induce exposure there naturally, but as you’ve guessed, the goal isn't sales. It’s controlling the speed at which the reputation spreads.”
“Oho, that makes sense.”
My father, who had run a business, nodded with a satisfied smile.
“The second stage is a private allocation limited to this summer. Emails and printed catalogs have already been sent to existing clients and VIP customers from July to August. By selling the wine first to consumers who pre-ordered through this catalog, we intend to position it as a ‘wine you can’t get’. Over $150 per bottle, no discounts. The more we limit the volume, the more the value rises.”
Since the wholesale price was $70, it was fully understandable for the distributor to sell it for $150.
“What’s that...?”
A photo of a charity event appeared on the screen. Wine bottles were displayed on a white tablecloth.
“The final stage is the year-end charity auction. We will hold a ‘Legacy Auction’ in conjunction with the New York Lobbyist Association. If you don’t mind, I’d like to make one request. We need the direct signature of the winemaker who created Sylphide.”
“A signature?”
“Yes. We want to ensure that Sylphide remains a collector’s item, not just a newcomer wine. We expect the auction price per case to be at least $1,200 or more. That’s over $200 when converted to bottles.”
Since I was already preparing to make a cult-level wine, it wasn't a bad thing for Redwood wine to be featured in such a place. The intention was good, but...
“Well, since it’s a limited edition, I’ll provide barrels that I’ve put a bit more care into, in addition to my signature. So, how many signatures do you need...?”
“We need at least 50 cases.”
50 cases... that meant 600 signatures.
I looked at my father.
“Whew... alright. I’ll do it.”
My father began to loosen his wrists with a worried look.