Debt Ceiling
Debt ceiling.
It was the most raucous hot topic in the recent stock market.
1. The Fed buys up all the bonds with a "Show me the money," so the US government spends money like water
2. They set a limit so people stop spamming the cheat key
3. Still runs dry every one or two years
4. Raising the limit requires negotiation
5. The opposition blocks it for political reasons
Currently at stage 5
America's national debt had hit its limit!
It was the kind of thing that should have sparked pure terror.
Yet investors' reactions were surprisingly lukewarm.
So what? What are we supposed to do about it?
They scream America's finished, we're all fucked, then the Democrats and Republicans cut a deal and raise the limit anyway.
They knew the history.
After all the noise and fighting, they always reach a deal.
If anything, it was a buying opportunity at the bottom.
Historically speaking, that was clearly the case.
— What Happens If Debt Ceiling Negotiations Fail.txt
— US << Recommend if it really looks fucked
— DoctorDoom's recent video is fucking creepy whoa
— Is this the domestic traitor gallery?
.
.
.
When it actually hit reality, the rules changed.
US stock investors were pure chaos.
[Crying frog photo.jpg]
The stock market of the world's strongest nation crashed just because rates went up a bit, then got hammered again for missing a debt payment.
Recommend if America really looks finished.
Because it was actually showing up in the stock prices.
While the KOSPI was recovering, the Nasdaq showed no sign of bouncing back.
People were saying the debt ceiling was the reason.
They said there were traitors out there dumping the glorious KOSPI to pour money into the shitty Nasdaq instead…
Beating the ground in regret after the fact was already too late.
All that remained was analyzing the present situation.
Why prices were falling.
Deep discussions about the debt ceiling phenomenon began to appear.
Shutdown of 9 government departments and 20-plus affiliated agencies
800,000 federal employees laid off
Pensions and military pay halted
Bond interest payments stopped
US credit rating tanks, dollar becomes toilet paper, worldwide panic GG
People finally accepted how serious it was.
Because the numbers in their own accounts were shrinking right now.
Fear theories spreading through the communities.
And people who poured gasoline on them.
That was an analyst talking.
Naturally people paid attention to anyone who had predicted a crash.
[DoctorDoom video capture.jpg]
2000 dot-com bubble.
2008 subprime mortgage crisis.
And this year was exactly the tenth year…
If only they had heard it earlier?
They believed they wouldn't have taken losses.
That was how an analyst became famous.
One more person was drawing attention among investors.
"Thank you for the ten-thousand-won donation from CurrencyOutflower who's donating to America. Personally I don't think this is an issue that will drag on that long."
Recent broadcasts.
More and more people were asking about stocks.
Sora understood why.
Someone has to do this job.
At first it had felt like a burden.
But after hearing her senior's words, her thinking changed.
When people got stuck in stocks, they grew desperate.
They turned into the kind of people who would grab any straw.
"Debt ceiling negotiations can act as short-term bad news. But it's not the kind of news that affects the fundamental value of stock prices."
There were people who used that.
For their own fame and financial gain.
I want to be a support for investors who have lost their way.
That was why she had made up her mind.
At the very least she wanted the viewers watching her stream to get some help.
She would never lie for selfish reasons.
That was why she had started taking the broadcast more seriously.
"Why do I have to keep dancing?!"
She couldn't change the atmosphere.
Not the stream's atmosphere, and not the recent market's either.
I said it's short-term bad news!!
Debt ceiling negotiations.
It was true that prices were falling because of them.
Not as badly as the Nasdaq, but the KOSPI was feeling it too.
She decided she would keep dancing until the real bounce came.
"I don't see it as a long-term issue so huff…, that's why the KOSPI isn't falling either huff…, and is holding up."
Her breathing grew ragged.
Dancing was no light work.
Especially the core.
She had been tensing so hard she was practically growing abs.
Viewers were cheering, of course.
My stomach is killing me, fuck!
For Sora it was pure suffering.
Sweat was pouring down so hard the valley between her breasts had turned into a full canyon.
There was fulfillment in it too.
Right now, with the market soaked in fear, there were viewers who watched her stream and held their mental together.
No matter how I look at it, this isn't crash-level news.
The ten-year financial crisis cycle theory.
It wasn't as if Sora had never heard of it.
At a glance it sounded plausible.
But fundamentally it was no different from believing in doomsday prophecies about the Earth ending.
"Hmm…, of course there's an effect, but I don't think it's anything to worry about. I believe the KOSPI has already confirmed its bottom."
The Earth could suddenly end.
A stock investor couldn't deny that possibility.
And if something like that had already been pre-reflected, then it would be time to buy stocks.
That was exactly now.
Rationally it was clearly true.
Emotionally she was starting to waver little by little.
Sora was no different from her viewers.
She was just as anxious, just as shaken—one more investor among them.
Whether her own words were really correct.
There were times even she doubted herself.
No matter how carefully she had thought it through.
Trump: If I don't get the wall budget I'll shut down the government. I'm proud to shut down the government for border security.
Pelosi: Trump shouldn't cause a shutdown.
Trump: I'll call it the Pelosi Shutdown.
Pelosi: That's why we won the election.
Trump: I won the presidential election though?
The one negotiating was Trump.
New bad news.
It kept getting added.
The debt ceiling negotiations were hitting more snags than expected.
The US government really might shut down.
Rate hikes weren't fully resolved either.
Gulp.
That expectation had only been pre-reflected.
If even one of them failed to resolve, the KOSPI would crash too.
Sora couldn't help but worry.
Maybe she was leading people down the wrong path.
Is the judgment I'm making really right?
Viewers' questions kept circling in her head.
Carrying that burden was never easy.