The Toto Junkie

Toto junkies.

The SpaceCraft 2 community.

Of course the place was losing its mind.

The match was being streamed live as well.

The more of a game fan you were, the more absurd it felt — because you actually understood who held the advantage.

It was a won game. Plain and simple. Who surrenders over a single delusion?

On the other side of the thread, some people said they understood — because the player in question was Wafills.

His mental game had been called out for years. He folded faster than any pro had a right to.

That was the incident in its purest, most extreme form. For game fans, it was something you laughed off as pure absurdity.

Not everyone could laugh it off.

For the toto junkies, it felt like the sky had caved in.

This wasn't a simple upset. Real money had flowed in and out on the back of it.

Betting. The numbers told you exactly how many people believed in a given player's victory.

Wafills' odds had been low — meaning the crowd had decided he was the safe pick.

When money is on the line, nobody is casual about it. People bet on a mountain of reasoning. Then the real match starts, and a variable no one priced in walks onto the stage.

Most of them walked away having learned only one thing: you cannot make money gambling.

"Heh. Heheh."

"You happy you made money?"

"Obviously. Are you stupid?"

Every once in a while, someone actually walked away from a board like this with a profit.

Not a guy. A girl.

Looks like she ate basic manners for breakfast.

She spat casual speech right in people's faces without the slightest awareness of senior-junior hierarchy.

"I wonder what happened to her."

"She wasn't always like this?"

"She didn't used to be weird… maybe the toto changed her."

Korea was a country with a rigid pecking order. At minimum, basic courtesy was common sense.

That's the Korean standard, though.

On Wall Street, this was ordinary. The only country on earth where age put food on the table was Korea.

"I'm gonna make money off toto."

"Yeah?"

"I don't wanna go to school. I'm not studying."

"Great idea."

You got treated according to ability. A first-year elite could out-earn a ten-year veteran.

That kind of world exists.

Dalyul had tasted that possibility in toto. Her dream, she said, was to freeload her entire life off betting.

"Don't egg her on. Do you know how dangerous gambling is?"

"I win, though?"

"That's why people say don't gamble — because you end up losing eventually."

"Yeah well I won~."

She was actually making money. Watching it happen in real time left no room for disbelief.

Match two was already over. The casters were scrambling to clean up the narrative. Calling it a full-blown disaster wouldn't have been an exaggeration.

If he'd been a Korean player, they would've torn him apart.

Even after retirement, they would have dragged him out and roasted him for a good ten years — re-summoned every time something similar happened, until everyone was sick of it. Incidents like this simply didn't happen in the first place. This was the land of courteous Eastern manners, after all; pro gamers got personality training drilled into them.

"You just got lucky."

"How is this luck?!"

"You said the odds were low. What were you gonna do if you were wrong?"

"That's for the brain-dead bastards who lose money on toto!!"

A foreign player. Playstyle. Condition. She had stacked those three factors and called the upset.

Anyone can make a prediction, sure.

His mental had always been fragile. They called him Cool-GG Wafills. But putting actual money on that possibility was a completely different act.

"Oppa, do something about her."

"Hmm."

"If she falls into this stuff and can't even graduate, then what?"

It was insane behavior — so Dalyul flying into a rage and snapping back was understandable, in its way.

If someone told me I only won by luck, I'd be pissed too.

Odds were a product that already priced in psychology. Almost nobody had bet on Wafills losing. Surely that wouldn't actually happen? The moment real money was on the line, people defaulted to conservative behavior. That was human nature.

"You've got real talent."

"Oppa!"

"How about trying something other than toto?"

The reason economists couldn't make money: they refused to put human psychology into the equation.

You need at least that much guts.

Then you could do stocks. This was exactly the kind of specimen you called trader material.

"Don't wanna."

"Come on, don't be like that…"

"What are you gonna do about it? What can a bottom-feeder like you even do?!"

Her guts were excellent, no question. She was throwing double middle fingers at me with that cute little provocation.

Guts are outstanding.

She was trying to climb up my face. Small, skinny frame. Short enough that one good squeeze looked like it would break her — and she was still running her mouth.

"I'm not exactly trying to force you."

"So what."

"You could hear me out and then decide, couldn't you?"

"Your tone is so fucking moldy, I'm dying lmao!"

A product of the Korean education system. She assumed that because she was a girl, of course no one would hit her.

「No matter what happens, you must never hit a girl!」 — some teacher from the old days.

That had been true once. She had no idea the era was marching toward gender equality.

This fucking bitch, for real.

The way Luffy had punched a Celestial Dragon square in the jaw, it seemed I needed to teach her that she, too, could catch a fist.

"So what about the next match?"

"The next match?"

"If you can make money off toto, you should know who wins the next one too."

"Obviously!"

Gambling. I tossed the bait, and she bit down without a single second of push-and-pull.

Competitive streak's strong too.

A born investor's constitution. But for now, she was still a frog at the bottom of a well.

The third match began. A Zerg-versus-Zerg mirror always carried more variables than most.

"I don't know SpaceCraft 2 that well."

"Feels like there's a lot more build choice than the previous game."

"Build choice?"

SpaceCraft 1. ZvZ had started with Zerglings and mostly ended at Mutalisks.

There just weren't any other units worth using.

Hydralisks dealt explosive damage, so against small units like Mutas they only landed half. Later in the game other units saw play, but the bulk of it was still Zergling and Muta fights.

The sequel, on the ‍‍‌‌⁠​​⁠‌​​‍​​‍​‌​⁠‍‌‍⁠⁠‌⁠‌‍‌‍‌‌‌‍⁠​‌​‌​‌‍‌‌‌⁠‍​​‌‍⁠‌‌⁠⁠other hand—

—had been patched specifically to allow far more varied game patterns than its predecessor.

"So what are you gonna do!"

"What?"

"Who are you betting on. You said we were making a wager!"

Dalyul suddenly started hounding me. She looked anxious that the casters might say something that would change the picture.

You're not supposed to show emotion like that.

Still green. I played along the way she wanted — and bet on the opposite side of whoever she was backing.

"Park Mu-yeol."

"For real? No bitching later just because the odds are higher."

"Fine."

Dalyul wasn't only hunting underdogs either. Once the game started, she laid out her reasoning.

"You think a ZvZ is just gonna throw up random variables, huh."

"Mm."

"That guy's Zergling control is insane. You know what that means?"

"Yeah."

The game analysis wasn't missing either. Underdogs just seemed to be her personal taste.

Underdogs are fun, to be fair.

The other toto junkies felt the same. People always wanted to win more money in a single hit.

And mirrors were full of variables. One early control mistake could decide the whole game.

"That's why the idiots bet on the other guy. That's just low Zerg-match understanding. You get me?"

"Sure."

"Do you get me!!"

Among every player alive, he did it best. Oh Seung-hyeon was a genius of Zergling control.

No matter how many build options got added.

It still started with Zerglings. Everything else needed gas, so the tech came online late. The Zergling stage lasted a long time. If nothing wild happened in that early fight—

"So what Dalyul is saying is that Oh Seung-hyeon has the higher win probability, right?"

"You actually get it!"

"Meaning what's visible isn't everything."

"Too late for regrets!"

—you could lock in the win as cleanly as in a cross-race match. I wasn't ignorant of what Dalyul was saying.

I did a rough amount of homework before coming.

I knew the game itself. I put money on it because it was winnable.

No — because it was a sure win.

The variables that decided victory and defeat weren't limited to that. Dalyul had analyzed the game and the psychology to perfection.

But she didn't know the Illicit Stock Manipulators existed.