The Super Cycle of Commodities
International affairs.
A stock is never valued solely on the merits of the company itself. Global political, economic, social, cultural, and military currents all exert direct and indirect pressure. Think of it as a ship. That vessel named “corporation,” floating alone in the vast middle of the Pacific, rides the currents of international affairs—sometimes sailing smoothly, sometimes meeting its end in a wreck.
Lately commodity prices have been acting strange. Is this the start of a trend reversal, and if so, which stocks stand to benefit? We’ve gone to great lengths to bring you someone who can give retail investors the answers they’re dying for.
The current now flowing is none other than commodities. Gold, silver, copper, iron—the raw materials of industrial production—have all soared. Corporate share prices cannot help but feel the impact. One YouTube channel is diving deep into the story.
Hello, this is Deputy Manager Yeom of Gaemi Investment Securities.
Deputy Manager Yeom, we’re counting on you again today!
The pleasure’s all mine.
Direction of investment. Ordinary investors can rarely see it for themselves. Securities professionals—the so-called experts—have to point the way. In the past you hunted for economic channels on television. But with the industry’s shift, the action has moved to YouTube.
Economic channels are no different. Analysts now routinely broadcast on YouTube and build their personal brands. The biggest beneficiary of that shift is Deputy Manager Yeom—a star analyst. Just as star lecturers exist, the securities industry has its own celebrities. He rose by analyzing hot sectors fast and without sugarcoating.
Question from user 2782. Steel stocks have been climbing lately—should existing holders ride them through year-end, or start taking profits…?
I wouldn’t stop at year-end. I’d seriously consider long-term investment in steel.
Oh, that strong?
The sector he has chosen is none other than commodities—and within it, steel stocks in particular.
You all know how steel stocks have fared the last ten years. Absolute dark ages.
Ah… yeah. Prices basically got cut in half.
Not even half. More like a fraction!
The screen cuts to Korea’s flagship steel names. Compared with a decade ago, the charts are simply pitiful.
POSCO
283,000 ▲12,000 (+3.43%)
[roughly a moonshot chart.jpg]
Even after the recent bounce they are still only halfway back. Factor in inflation and it is no exaggeration to say they have been crawling on the floor.
Wow~ steel shareholders must have really suffered.
Plenty of companies went bankrupt along the way, too.
Ah…
That’s exactly why steel names are surging so hard right now.
Money simply evaporates! The pain shareholders endured is hard to put into words. That is why they crave even greater payback.
New investors, too. The narrative is irresistible. Listen long enough and you find yourself wanting the stock without even realizing it.
They went through that much crisis and still survived, right?
Yeah, true.
That means they can take the share that the companies which didn’t survive left behind—once the industry cycle turns up.
Ah!
Countless ants fix their eyes on “steel stocks.” The principle of authority. When a star analyst speaks, doubt becomes almost impossible.
Iron is the rice of industry.
Absolutely right.
The economy’s improving lately—what do we need? Iron, of course. You need iron to build machines, and on the construction side you know H-beams, right?
I know those! The ones stacked in empty lots sometimes.
Right. And lately color-coated steel sheets are seeing growing demand on the interior side as well……
Information ordinary people never hear. The more you listen, the deeper you sink. The only thought left is that you have to buy steel stocks. An expert is saying it, so the credibility feels high. He’s putting his own name on the line—surely he wouldn’t say something wrong?
Still, a sliver of doubt remains. Even the best stock leaves nothing to eat if you enter too late—that is the stock market.
So should we treat this as a super cycle for steel stocks?
I can’t guarantee it goes that far.
Ah, of course……
Even if it’s not a super cycle, I think a big cycle has arrived. Cycles usually run on an 8-to-20-year rhythm, right?
So we can call this the early stage of a super cycle?!
What if I’m late? That anxiety in the viewers’ hearts is shaken in an instant. A once-in-ten-years opportunity. Miss it now and you never get another bite. Buy or not?
Wavering investors hit the buy button. And with that, the video ends.
The investment information in this broadcast is for reference only.
All investment decisions are the sole responsibility of the investor.
This channel and its guests bear no responsibility for price fluctuations of any stocks mentioned.
The usual warning, and then silence.
Group project.
“Oppa. Can’t you take this a little more seriously?”
“What?”
“I mean…… I looked at the materials you brought and it’s all weird stuff!”
The most annoying task in the world. And yet he was generously donating his talent.
“Why are you buying inverse?”
“This sector benefits too, you know.”
“That completely misses the professor’s intent!”
“How? Commodity prices are always played with the short side included.”
He had considered futures, but decided stocks were safer for the assignment, so he picked ETFs. He couldn’t understand what the big complaint was.
Kids these days sure complain a lot.
They had met at a café for a mid-project check-in. Hye-ri, the energetic type, chattered nonstop.
“And what’s with the orange juice? Are you seriously joking right now?”
“Just like oil and natural gas, orange juice, coffee, milk—those are all commodities too. Agricultural commodities.”
“Ah, I see~ First I’ve heard of it, hehe.”
At least she was the one in the group he could actually talk to. They had grown close enough to bicker and banter.
“Foods with massive global demand open futures markets for efficient price discovery.”
“Why do you think orange juice prices will rise?”
“There’s an orange epidemic spreading through California lately. Supply shrinks, price goes up, right? It’s already fallen a lot, so going long seems fine.”
“Oh~.”
Suhyun nodded along while sipping her iced americano. She was the quiet type, but their relationship wasn’t bad.
That bitch didn’t even show up.
Just one exception. When the Pokémon trainer was absent, normal conversation actually happened.
“She’s not coming because she hates you, oppa!”
“Agreed.”
“…….”
“Why are you only mean to Sora? Don’t tell me it’s because you’re interested?”
They seemed to share some private code and burst into giggles. Strictly speaking, they weren’t wrong.
I’m interested in the crumbs, at least.
A pretty rice cake is also a good one to pound. He had zero desire to take on any responsibility, though.
“Maybe she’s just scared she’ll lose to me.”
“I don’t think that’s it.”
“How would you know?”
“She texted me. Look!”
Better a chicken than no pheasant—these two weren’t bad either. Solid A-tier faces.
With women, youth is the ultimate cheat code.
Suhyun apparently had a boyfriend, but that only made the conquest more rewarding.
1. Characteristics of Iron Ore
Metal. Primarily traded in the intermediate form of steel.
2. Price Trend
Down as much as 80% from the peak of the last decade, but rebounded 30% this year and recovering.
3. Background to the Price Rise
Continued weakness in Chinese demand; steelmakers burdened by over-investment.
4. Industry Status
Employment in related sectors down 14% since 2013.
Chinese rate cuts reducing interest costs.
Utilization rates falling; Chinese production down 11%.
5. Outlook
Chinese government intensifying restructuring → further production cuts expected.
Watch concrete moves after the “Two Sessions.”
The Pokémon trainer was going to be a tougher nut. The KakaoTalk Hye-ri showed him.
Looks like a cleanly organized report.
Convincing enough that you could believe an analyst wrote it. No wonder she had been confident.
“Way cleaner than what you did, oppa, right?”
“And the stock price is rising!”
“So what? Life is live trading.”
“There you go again! Scared you’ll lose to Sora.”
Hye-ji Fund. No—hedge fund CEO. People like him read reports like these and make the final call. That was why they valued capable analysts: they raised the accuracy of judgment.
Well, if the world really ran this innocently, that would be wonderful.
But sharing the same thoughts as an analyst was never the point.
The sea.
To travelers it is a romantic destination overflowing with dreams. But to sailors it is an object of terror and awe. Becoming an ant in the stock market is the same as drifting alone in a tiny skiff across the open ocean. When the currents are calm there can be a certain romance.
There’s clearly upside left.
Live trading. Feeling insulted by Chanuk, Sora had bought stocks with real money. She had built plenty of experience through paper trading. In a market where selling pressure was excessive like now—
Sell order filled!
—she retreated for the moment. Existing holders were taking profits. The so-called correction. She had learned to wait for the bottom to firm up before re-entering.
Wait… was that the bottom just now?
The second she sold, it climbed again. Startled, Sora hovered her finger over the buy button. A stock that was definitely going higher. Buying now at least meant no loss. That had to be right. If this had still been paper trading—if it had been a simple sightseeing trip—she would have enjoyed watching the waves.
3,156,422 won
−180,567 won (−5.7%)
But this was live. Her account was melting in real time—not a fake paper-trading balance, but her actual money.
If I just wait…… it’ll go back up, right?
No one standing on a boat in a storm feels like a tourist.