The Reason the Gambler's Fallacy is a Fallacy
The series stood at 1-1. The third set would decide everything.
DFL Lycodon VS RTH Silver Eden.
[Lycodon, the King of Snakes! A robot that has changed teams many times.]
[It even competed for RTH back in 2021. Though the memories weren't exactly fond.]
[What happened?]
[It usually performed well. In fact, it was the main reason they broke out of their slump.]
[But?]
[In important matches and crucial sets, it kept losing to mechanical failures!]
[Ah…]
[Without those issues, the team could have climbed much higher!]
[Next up is Silver Eden.]
[A robot that is both shield and spear.]
Silver Eden was a horizontal spinner that deviated slightly from the standard mold. Its appearance was almost cute—short and stout with a V-shaped front and a rectangular rear. The blade supports formed a trapezoid, bracing the weapon from above and below. It used a short, thick horizontal blade, while its wheels and rear were protected by sturdy < >-shaped armor.
[3, 2, 1! Match start!]
[Silver Eden doesn't really have a clear target to aim for. Its blade is vicious, though.]
Lycodon attacked like a fencer thrusting at an opponent. Silver Eden's armor was tough, so the hits didn't do much damage, but its narrow attack range prevented any counterattack.
[Silver Eden can't counter because of its limited range!]
[It's trying to go for the side… but just turning its head gets it punished!!]
Lycodon made full use of its superior reach, keeping Silver Eden at bay as though wielding a longsword against a dagger.
[Lycodon is fighting like it's in a fencing match! Something like that?]
[Even without a KO, a judges' decision is still one win!!]
While maintaining pressure, Lycodon targeted Silver Eden's rear.
[That blunt, wedge-shaped armor is weak against horizontal spinners, you know?]
[It's tough, but if it keeps taking hits… who knows!]
The < >-shaped armor was optimized against vertical weapons. Against horizontal spinners, it might not hold up as well.
[Silver Eden finally lands a counterattack—and it was a big one!!]
Lycodon immediately returned to its defensive posture.
[Lycodon is living up to its name. It's fighting like a total snake!!]
[Forget romance—results matter. A win by decision is still one win!!]
The match had turned into a tedious contest where Lycodon only aimed for a judges' decision. Such tactics could appear in any combat sport. Battle robots had measures to discourage this.
Victory methods were ranked by value:
1st — KO win (a wall as high as the Baekdu Mountain range)
2nd — Ring-out win (a wall as high as the Himalayas)
3rd — Judges' decision or any other victory
Even this system couldn't prevent everything. A win was still just one win. The deterrent worked less effectively when rankings or titles weren't fiercely contested, and it meant almost nothing in tournaments where simply advancing mattered most.
[It's just poking and prodding… whoa!!]
[Lycodon just shattered Silver Eden's blade!!]
With only half its blade remaining, Silver Eden shook violently—easily a hundred times worse than the engine vibrations of cars from the late Joseon era.
[Another hit!! It flipped it over!]
The combined force of Lycodon's powerful blade and the resulting vibration sent Silver Eden tumbling. Its wheels were exposed on top as well, so it could still move even when inverted.
[The full three minutes have passed…!]
[5! 4! 3! 2! 1! Match over!]
The judges' decision? Unanimous. Lycodon wins by decision.
“A win by decision is the same as a KO. Remember that.”
Na Sau — Lycodon's match had been very snake-like. It prioritized practicality, but it wasn't boring. Feint → heavy attack → feint → heavy attack. That pattern secured the decision victory.
“Naru, can you come out?”
“Cheong-hyeon unni… Oh, I can't today…”
“What's wrong?”
“It's that day… It hurts so much…”
(I never knew it was this painful when I was a guy…)
“I'll go instead, Naru.”
“Th-thanks… Cheong-bi…”
The fourth set. RTH's choice… post-match announcement!
Fourth set: DFL Scary VS RTH BeyCat.
[Scary looks like it has a lot of functions just from its appearance.]
[It really does. You'll see them in action during the match!]
[BeyCat transferred from 5EX to RTH this year.]
[Because of the name, it looks like a cat food can.]
BeyCat was a ring spinner. It resembled a round can of cat food, with only the outer edge spinning like a saw blade. It used omni wheels, allowing movement in all four directions—forward, backward, left, and right. Because it was ring-shaped and only the rim rotated, it could still move even when flipped over.
[Where did the name come from?]
[From the cat they keep?]
[They said it came from a special animal native to their hometown.]
[What animal?]
[A mysterious little beast wrapped in mystery.]
[A beast?]
[The Bornean bay cat.]
[A golden cat?]
Most people knew far more about extinct saber-toothed tigers than this creature.
[Just like its name, it shows a different side every time.]
[So you can never really predict what this robot will do.]
[3, 2, 1! Match start!!!]
[Scary is moving acrobatically right from the start!!!]
[That's the advantage of Mecanum wheels!!]
Scary's movements were as dynamic as a figure skater's. BeyCat's trajectory was no less lively.
[BeyCat can move in unusual ways too.]
[But it just looks like a spinning top because of its shape, doesn't it?]
[Scary leads with its vertical blade.]
[Thanks to the gyro effect, it just floats upright.]
The gyro effect: the tendency of a rapidly spinning object to maintain its axis of rotation. It's the same reason a moving bicycle stays upright. Two counter-rotating objects on the same axis cancel it out. On horizontal weapons, it aids mobility. Especially for body-spinning robots, it helps prevent flips. On vertical weapons, however, it hinders movement.
[Now it's leading with the three-bladed disk.]
[Trying to flip it won't do much!]
Tracing petal-like paths, Scary hammered BeyCat with its horizontal disk.
[Hit! Hit! Hit! Three consecutive strikes along the petal trajectory!]
[BeyCat is counterattacking too!! The problem is the huge recoil sends itself flying!!]
The gyro effect only applies once acceleration reaches a certain point. Without it, the robot would flip helplessly.
[Its speed dropped… and it flipped!!]
[It's fine—the top is open anyway!!]
BeyCat, tracing the same petal trajectory, battered Scary like a child's spinning top toy.
[“I can move like that too!” BeyCat seems to be saying!]
[It really looks like a kid's spinning top!!]
Unable to withstand the recoil, BeyCat began to slow.
[The ring's rotation seems to be slowing down?]
[That's the downside of body-spinning robots!! Too much recoil!!]
[BeyCat… stopped!!]
[10! 9! 8! 7! 6! 5! 4! 3! 2! 1! BeyCat KO! Scary wins!]
0:50. The acrobatic movements of both robots had been a visual treat. The match had starkly highlighted the biggest weakness of body-spinning robots: massive recoil.
RTH OXXX 1 : 3 XOOO DFL
1st set: Ronos win 1:01 KO — Hapagonis lose
2nd set: Gamulchi lose 0:37 KO — Pandemic Survivor win
3rd set: Silver Eden lose 3:00 decision — Lycodon win
4th set: BeyCat lose 0:50 KO — Scary win
It was a shocking defeat for the defending champions, RTH Crown. In the first set, RTH's symbolic Ronos had overturned the matchup and dominated. From the second set onward, however, they failed to seize control for even a single second. Though it was only the first match of the regular season, this performance suggested that repeating as league champions was nothing but a dream.
Moon Naru, unable to compete due to menstrual cramps, watched from the bench while enduring the pain and celebrating the team's victory.
“Wow…!! The team's third consecutive…!! Ow, my stomach…”
“Naru, does it hurt that much?”
“Cheong-bi… You… you don't hurt?”
“It was really bad in middle school, but now it's not so bad.”
“How not bad?”
“It still hurts, but not enough to stop me from piloting.”
“I'm jealous. Unni always suffers a lot on those days.”
“Even Cheong-hyeon unni?”
Na Sau, pilot of Lycodon, gave her winner's interview. The highlights could be summarized as follows:
“I hope everyone now understands why the gambler's fallacy is called a fallacy.”
The gambler's fallacy, as illustrated by examples:
“(Ten gacha pulls in a row are duds—there is no pity system) This time it'll be a win!”
The probability of “someday” increases. The probability of “right now” stays the same.
In sports:
1. “(Watching a winning streak) They're due for a loss.”
2. “(Watching a losing streak) They'll win this time.”
Likewise, the probability of “someday” winning or losing rises. The probability of “right now” winning or losing does not change.
RTH's Ronos pilot, Kim Wang-hun, gave a shocking post-match interview:
“RTH might no longer be a championship-caliber team.”
After reaching the finals four seasons in a row and winning three of them, perhaps it was time for them to step down.