Every Week, the NFL's Fortunes Shift

(Pat McAfee) – ESPN/YouTube Host

"I really don't see how we skip this story… because I have NEVER seen anything like this. Eight—hell, TWELVE—teams! I'm saying a good third of the damn NFL is out there putting on a whole circus show to finish DEAD LAST! Do you people understand that? I LOVE IT!! LOVE IT. LOVE IT, LOVE IT — I am more hooked on this than I am on scratching my groin and smelling my fingers!"

"Dwayne Moi Stone. This God-forsaken quarterback at Georgia is right now… what do we even call these hot-shot stars these days? Whatever, doesn't matter. This kid is pure pheromones in shoulder pads, man. NFL front offices are out here wagging their tails and shaking their hips in front of him like he's the last drink at the bar. So lemme ask you something. Do YOU think he's worth it? I mean, seriously… look at the quarterbacks of the last few years. Eighty percent of the guys picked first overall or thereabouts have flamed out completely."

"My take is that today's quarterbacks are SOFT. Way too easy to play college ball. They dump all the scheming on their coordinators and head coaches and just rely on a pretty body to run around with. And talking? That ain't a quarterback! No sir! I'm asking whether this kid is an OLD SCHOOL QB! A genuine, dyed-in-the-wool gunslinger like Tom Brady or Aaron Rodgers. A.J., you first."

(A.J. Hawk) – Co-Host

"Oh, he's the real deal, no question. He's the exact opposite of the modern college QB. The questions about him up until last year were mostly about his body, right? A guy listed at 6-foot-6, 250 pounds who never once felt like running. And here's the kicker — every U.S. national track record from age seven to seventeen? All his. Yeah, I know. It's insane."

"Anyway. And even with all that, he didn't run much in college. Of course, he's addressed that in interviews. His logic goes: if I score a rushing touchdown, one person gets happy. If I score a passing touchdown, two people get happy. Think about what that means — if he runs it in himself, that's ONE rushing touchdown. But if he throws it, that's a passing touchdown AND a receiving touchdown, so two touchdowns and two happy people."

(Pat McAfee)

"Oooh, I like that. I did not know that."

(A.J. Hawk)

"Right? And that's exactly the thing I love about him. It's why I think he's a born quarterback. The pass is always in his head first. Which means he knows how to lift up the entire team. Just look at Georgia's receivers. The numbers are ridiculous. And every single one of them exists because of him."

(Pat McAfee)

"You folks know this, right? Starting this year we've got a brand new show every Tuesday — the Everything of DB! Go give it some love. Anyway — Darius! You were a DB in your playing days, weren't you?"

(Darius Butler) – ESPN Analyst

"Damn Good DB."

(Pat McAfee)

"It's not even close to that, but wow, somebody's got a healthy self-image. Anyway, listen. You played both DB positions, corner and safety. So from that vantage point, what's it like going up against a QB like Dwayne ‍‍‌‌⁠​​⁠‌​​‍​​‍​‌​⁠‍‌‍⁠⁠‌⁠‌‍‌‍‌‌‌‍⁠​‌​‌​‌‍‌‌‌⁠‍​​‌‍⁠‌‌⁠⁠Moi Stone? Does the guy's game actually translate to the pros?"

(Darius Butler)

"Better than Trevor Lawrence, at the very least."

(Pat McAfee)

"Hehehehe. Hey! HEY! You just sprinted straight to that one out of nowhere! Obviously he's better than Trevor Lawrence! Answer the actual question!"

(Darius Butler)

"I think the single biggest difference between Dwayne Moi Stone and the other quarterbacks — the guys who've been rated elite these past few years — is that he attacks the middle of the field. Watch Georgia's offense and you see tons of slants and tight-end concepts, and as a DB, that's agony. There's so much more you have to track, and reading what's coming becomes several times harder. When it all clicks, you walk off the field feeling like the quarterback just owned the entire game."

"Watch his tape and you can see how intelligent he is. He reads the whole field with total composure and knows exactly what throw each situation calls for. Look, I know college stats are close to meaningless once you reach the pros — but when a guy puts up numbers THIS outrageous, even I think it's a different animal."

"So my conclusion is yes. He's going to translate. Sure, the quality of his O-line and his weapons could be variables. But even if you hand him the worst possible situation, he still looks like the talent who'd shine brightest in it."

(Pat McAfee)

"Shit. That is a absolutely GLOWING review. Alright fellas, let's take one quick ad break. You know how when you work out and sweat, your body reeks like a dumpster? That's exactly what this product was made for…"

#. October 9, 2022

#-1. Orchard Park, New York, USA

#-2. Highmark Stadium

A few days earlier, the Pittsburgh Steelers had pulled the drastic move of replacing their starting quarterback with a rookie.

It had changed nothing.

No — if anything, they'd gotten worse.

"…"

Omar Khan stared at the lonely visiting fan holding that sign up with everything he had, then bowed his head, a bitter taste rising in his mouth.

What ‍‍‌‌⁠​​⁠‌​​‍​​‍​‌​⁠‍‌‍⁠⁠‌⁠‌‍‌‍‌‌‌‍⁠​‌​‌​‌‍‌‌‌⁠‍​​‌‍⁠‌‌⁠⁠exactly are we gaining like this?

With this week's games done, the 2022/23 NFL season had reached Week 5 — and the one-third mark of the year was now staring them in the face.

Given the nature of football, there was no guarantee against a resurgence or a turnaround somewhere down the line. But even if one came, it wouldn't change the fact that this was not the roster of a championship contender.

They would compete for the playoffs, at minimum.

They would not tank.

Omar Khan had no desire to deny the tradition and history of a franchise whose pride as an institution came before everything. But he couldn't shake the question of what good any of it actually did.

In the NFL, only one team succeeds every season.

The team that lifts the Lombardi Trophy. That's it.

Do we really have anything to be ashamed of in the face of a great failure?

No longer able to bear standing there watching the field, Omar Khan turned away. Instead of boarding the bus with the team, he asked his personal assistant — the one who clung to him like a shadow — to make a single phone call.

If Mike Tomlin found out later, he would surely fly into a rage. Even so, Omar Khan felt he had to do what he believed was right, even with his job on the line.

"Mr. Khan?"

"Yes."

He took the phone and spoke into it.

"I'd like to request a meeting."

-…I was already planning on it.

The Pittsburgh Steelers had been led by the Rooney family since the franchise's founding, and today the chairman's seat belonged to Art Rooney II, the eldest son of Dan Rooney.

Art Rooney had begun his career as the Steelers' vice president and legal counsel immediately out of college, and he was known far and wide as honest and patient beyond reproach.

Even with Ben Roethlisberger — a man who caused trouble both on and off the field for years — he had maintained the line, "He's given so much to this team for so long that ‍‍‌‌⁠​​⁠‌​​‍​​‍​‌​⁠‍‌‍⁠⁠‌⁠‌‍‌‍‌‌‌‍⁠​‌​‌​‌‍‌‌‌⁠‍​​‌‍⁠‌‌⁠⁠I owe him a sincere conversation," and in the end, he'd managed to lead the player to genuine remorse on his own.

He could be rigid to a fault. But everyone who had ever worked alongside Art Rooney described him the same way: a man of outstanding character.

Omar Khan was no different.

He respected Art Rooney II.

But with the team having tumbled to 1-4 after today's crushing defeat, he refused to settle for another middling season in the name of preserving tradition.

A year of humiliation was enough.

Glory would follow after.

Now that he had staked out his own position in the internal politics of team tradition versus the head coach's influence, Omar Khan intended to bring the TFM he had only ever mulled in silence out into the open.

Tap.

"Take me to the airport, please."

"Of course, sir."

Instead of the team bus, Omar Khan climbed into a taxi and left the stadium behind. His eyes belonged to a man who had decided to shoulder every hardship that was coming.

#. Same time

#-1. New Orleans, Louisiana, USA

#-2. Caesars Superdome

By most reckonings, the Week 5 matchup between Seattle and New Orleans at Caesars Superdome was the single most important game on the TFM calendar.

New Orleans, sitting at 1-3, could not afford another win. They needed to somehow hand a victory to a winless Seattle team — anything else was a disaster.

And of all days, today the starting quarterback Taysom Hill was in absolutely peak form.

Hill personally carved out a 42-yard rushing touchdown in the second quarter and, riding the kind of once-a-year berserk performance that came out of nowhere, seized total control of the game.

The fans filling Caesars Superdome were divided in their reaction — though by now, far more of them were trying to figure out how to process the situation than were actually celebrating it.

Still, they were the lucky ones.

The Saints' front office was in agony.

"…"

If this game ended as their second win, the No. 1 overall pick the New Orleans Saints had been coveting would drift a long way out of reach.

Mickey Loomis ran a hand back through his hair, his heart a tangle. The executives around him made no effort to hide their own conflicted feelings, scowling or biting down hard on their lower lips.

Right up until the start of the season, it had looked like some other team would be leading the TFM race. Then Week 5 ended, and an entirely different club was out in front.

That was what stung the most.

Their goal was last place, not first — but that changed nothing about the fact that they had prepared desperately and the results simply refused to come.

If there was any comfort to cling to, it was that the next four games looked overwhelmingly more likely to end in losses than in wins.

For now, the best move felt like focusing on that stretch and simply waiting for other teams to collapse while they did.

And one more thing had become certain today.

The trade.

If the Saints were still within striking distance of the TFM race when Week 8 wrapped up, they would have to sell off more receivers and O-line pieces to gut the roster further.

The defense was already Swiss cheese as it stood — no reason to touch it. But the offense needed a bit more trimming.

That was how you lost every single week.

"That's two wins."

"Hoo- call a meeting."

"Right now?"

"Yes. Now."

Mickey Loomis left the VIP section and headed for the general manager's office, where he would soon tell the assembled staff to figure out how they were going to navigate this crisis wisely.

Two wins. Three losses.

The New Orleans Saints were standing at the edge of a cliff.

#. October 11, 2022

#-1. Phoenix, Arizona, USA

#-2. Arizona Cardinals Front Office

While the internet had eagerly slotted the Cardinals onto the latest TFM shortlist, inside the Arizona Cardinals' building, tanking was not under consideration at all.

The reason was simple: the previous offseason, they had signed Kyler Murray to a colossal five-year, $230 million deal — $160 million of it guaranteed.

Even so, the internal question that had lingered since the day the contract was inked — 'Is Kyler Murray actually a Super Bowl–caliber QB?' — had never gone away.

Then, two days ago, the Cardinals fell 17-20 to the Eagles and dropped to three losses, and murmurs about planning for a different future finally began to surface.

"I'll say it with total confidence — the NFL market is about to be shaken to its core."

"…"

"Think about it. This is not a bad thing, I'm telling you. Kyler Murray. Yes. He's a good quarterback. But he will NEVER be Mahomes. Honestly, I'm not even sure he's better than Joe Burrow or Josh Allen. He's just… good. That's it."

The voice belonged to Matt Harris, the advisor who weighed in on virtually every corner of the Cardinals' operation.

From player acquisition — the draft, trades, free agency — to stadium management and marketing, the man held some measure of influence over literally every domain and inserted himself into every project.

He had also been a skeptic at the time of Kyler Murray's contract extension, deeply negative about the limitations that came with a quarterback of Murray's small frame.

More than that, Murray had drawn criticism ever since his pro debut for "not taking football seriously."

Which was precisely why the extension had included the famous clause — "a minimum of four hours of film study per week." Four hours a week was, in fact, less than your average receiver.

Other NFL quarterbacks averaged ninety to one hundred fifty minutes of film study per day, and doubled that come playoff time.

Kyler Murray topped out at roughly two hours a week — and that flaw exposed itself brutally late in seasons and in the playoffs, when his play would collapse.

Just last year, the Cardinals had roared out to seven straight wins, then fallen apart down the stretch and lost in the first round of the playoffs to the Rams.

Fans consoled themselves with "We lost to a Super Bowl team, so it is what it is" — which was only possible because they had decided to completely forget how the game actually went.

In last year's playoff loss, Kyler Murray had completed just 19 of 34 pass attempts, thrown two catastrophic interceptions — one returned for a pick-six — and finished with a passer rating of 40.9.

A stat line worse than a backup quarterback's.

"Right now, roughly eight teams are running their seasons on backup quarterbacks. Another six or so are planning to draft a quarterback next April. But the premium supply is exactly one. Moi. And then… the rest. Who else is there? Jameis Winston. Marcus Mariota. Etcetera, etcetera. At minimum, five to seven teams are going to end the offseason without the quarterback they actually want."

"You're proposing we trade Murray?"

"Yes. A reset."

A murmur rippled through the conference room, and Cardinals general manager Steve Keim raised a hand to quiet it, needing to steer the discussion back on course.

Then he spoke.

"That's a bit extreme, Matt."

"I know. But for the good of this team, it's the right answer."

"…"

"There are already teams that look like they're drifting out of the TFM race. The New Orleans Saints are the prime example. If they pick up one more win before Week 8, I believe we should put Kyler Murray on the table as a card."

It was the Saints, after all, who were widely understood to have deliberately degraded their own quarterback quality for the sake of TFM — which meant they might well take an interest in Murray if the No. 1 pick started slipping away.

In exchange, the Cardinals could recoup a haul of draft picks, including next year's first-rounder.

And this was a Saints organization that had gone all-in on a Win-Now push the past few years and wrecked its salary cap doing it — ask for spare players to dump as a sweetener, and they might actually thank you while sprinting to the trade table.

Above all, thanks to Kyler Murray's antics before last year's extension, support for him inside the fanbase wasn't exactly strong.

"This meeting is adjourned. Matt? You stay."

Once he'd ushered everyone but Matt Harris out the door, Steve Keim laid his honest feelings on the table.

"Kyler Murray was Michael Bidwill's choice."

"Figured as much."

After last season ended, the Cardinals and Kyler Murray had collided hard over the terms and the money of a new deal.

The instant they did, Murray scrubbed everything Cardinals-related from his social media and began making highly public visits to MLB's Oakland Athletics.

Oakland had once drafted Murray in the first round of the MLB Draft, and his agent was the notorious Scott Boras — the message being sent was that baseball could be his second job, whether the Cardinals liked it or not.

Beyond that, Murray's original rookie contract was only set to run through 2022, with an option for 2023 — meaning the extension talks had begun absurdly early in the first place.

Everyone knew the gambit: time favored the player, so lock in the extension while his value was at its peak. The owner pushed it through anyway and signed a deal tilted heavily in the player's favor.

The single scrap of dignity management had salvaged was inserting that minimum-four-hours-of-film-study clause.

And even that, Keim knew, reeked of servility.

Kyler Murray was lazy.

"How many people do you need?"

"For what timeframe?"

"I can't give you long. I'll give you a week."

‍‍‌‌⁠​​⁠‌​​‍​​‍​‌​⁠‍‌‍⁠⁠‌⁠‌‍‌‍‌‌‌‍⁠​‌​‌​‌‍‌‌‌⁠‍​​‌‍⁠‌‌⁠⁠

"Two people will do. But I pick them myself."

"Understood. Keep it quiet internally."

"Leave it to me."

The Arizona Cardinals were quietly preparing to swap out for a cheap, quality quarterback before their starter's trade value could sink any lower.

There was even a coin-flip chance it all came to nothing — but if the TFM entrants holding a young quarterback named Kyler Murray made their move, it could throw the entire race into chaos around Week 8.

The fortunes of NFL teams, changing week by week.

But regardless of all that, the weekend came around.

(Taylor Zajawor) – SEC Network Play-by-Play

"This man simply does NOT get boring!"

Dwayne Moi Stone was continuing to advertise his appeal to NFL teams, loudly and relentlessly.